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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.05.22 19:36z 224 Lines 10340 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6594_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-MAY.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220508/1930Z 6594@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 08 May 2022
11:06:01 +0000 Sun, 08 May 2022 11:06:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun May 8 11:06:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sun May 8 11:06:01 UTC 2022. Sun, 08
May 2022 11:05:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun May 8 11:06:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 8
11:06:01 UTC 2022. Sun, 08 May 2022 11:05:05 +0000
SPC May 8, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM
CDT Sun May 08 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms may evolve across portions of western Texas late
in the day Tuesday, accompanied by hail/wind risk.
...Synopsis...
While an upper low lingers just off the East Coast, a persistent
trough will remain over the West through the period. In between,
ridging will expand slightly westward across the Plains with time,
thus broadening a bit to include much of the central states and
Midwest.
At the surface, a baroclinic zone bisecting the Plains will remain the
primary feature of interest, extending from the Great Lakes to the
Desert Southwest through the period.
...Parts of the western Texas vicinity...
Capping at the base of an elevated mixed layer will persist across
much of the central U.S. -- supported in most areas by large-scale
subsidence associated with the expanding central U.S. upper ridge.
However, models continue to hint that a subtle vort max will shift
northeastward out of northwestern Mexico toward the southern High
Plains. Weak ascent -- combined with diurnal heating/mixing -- may be
sufficient locally to allow isolated storm development to occur over
western portions of Texas late in the day. With ample CAPE within the
steep-lapse-rate layer above the cap, storms would quickly
grow/intensify, aided by modestly increasing/veering flow with height.
As such, risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and large hail, would
be possible with a couple of the most organized cells, before
convection diminishes during the evening as the cap becomes
re-established.
..Goss.. 05/08/2022
Read more
Sun, 08 May 2022 07:30:01 +0000
SPC May 8, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400
AM CDT Sun May 08 2022
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The medium-range period appears likely to be characterized overall by
the eastward advance of a formerly quasi-stationary trough over the
West. Global models are in reasonable agreement through the middle
stages of the period, before more substantial differences in solutions
emerge late in the period.
On Day 4/Wednesday, the trough is progged to begin its initial
eastward advance, though is expected to remain over the Intermountain
West while ridging persists over the Plains and Midwest. Some severe
weather will be possible over the north-central U.S., but likely
elevated/north of a warm front for the most part. Limited severe risk
may also occur across western portions of the central and southern
Plains, as the onset of weak height falls begins. However, confidence
remains too low in either of these areas to introduce a 15% area at
this time.
Severe risk becomes more apparent Day 5/Thursday, across the
north-central CONUS. As the western U.S. trough shifts northeastward
across the central High Plains toward the northern Plains into the
afternoon, models indicate the feature acquiring negative tilt with
time -- supporting fairly substantial northern Plains cyclogenesis.
Models differ with strength of the upper system, and as such, location
of the surface low and associated warm and cold frontal progression.
Still, confidence is high enough to include a broad 15% risk area to
cover what appears at this time to be the envelope of greatest risk.
Given several days of low-level moist advection beneath steep lapse
rates aloft, and the increase in deep-layer flow that will accompany
the advance of the upper system, potential for supercells -- and an
all-hazards severe risk -- seems a reasonable bet from afternoon into
the overnight hours.
Some severe weather will likely continue Day 6/Friday, however the
upper system is forecast to shift northward into the Canadian Prairie,
with some weakening of the trailing front which should stretch from
the Upper Mississippi Valley into to Oklahoma/Texas. Uncertainty
regarding frontal strength/location, partially affected by lingering
convective effects/outflow, precludes any areal highlights for Day 6
at this time.
Uncertainty increases for Day 7/Saturday, as models forecast that a
short-wave trough will rotate southeastward out of Canada and across
the Plains on the southern periphery of the initial low/trough still
shifting northward across the Prairie provinces. The
location/progression of this short-wave feature varies according to
different model solutions, and therefore similar variance exists with
surface boundary position. While some severe risk will likely evolve
within a broad zone that extends roughly along the Mississippi Valley,
too much uncertainty is evident to highlight a risk area at this time.
Finally, model differences which increase through Day 7 into Day
8/Sunday, with predictability too low to allow a reasonable assessment
of convective potential.
Read more
Sun, 08 May 2022 09:02:59 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123
AM CDT Sun May 08 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Significant wildfire-spread concerns are expected across portions of
the Southern High Plains today. An 80+ kt mid-level jet streak will
impinge on the southern Rockies as a broad mid-level trough continues
to amplify across the western/central U.S. Rapid surface-low
intensification is also expected to occur across the central High
Plains. Strong gradient flow from the intensifying surface cyclone,
and downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft via a
well-mixed boundary layer, will both promote very windy, dry surface
conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire spread.
...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
As the boundary layer mixes through the afternoon, widespread 25+ mph
sustained west-southwesterly winds will develop as RH dips below 15
percent on a widespread basis. Widespread Elevated to Critical fire
weather conditions are expected to overspread much of the Southwest
into the southern High Plains. However, a corridor exists across much
of central/eastern New Mexico into southeast Colorado and the western
Texas Panhandle where 25+ mph sustained winds (with higher gusts) will
overlap with single-digit RH and anomalously dry fuels for at least a
few hours this afternoon. These dangerous conditions will support very
rapid wildfire spread with any new starts and exacerbate existing
fires, perhaps supporting extreme fire behavior, warranting the
expansion of Extremely Critical highlights across the southern High
Plains.
..Squitieri.. 05/08/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 08 May 2022 06:24:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154
AM CDT Sun May 08 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will prevail across the western and central
U.S., with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the northern
Plains and a second, less pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on
the Rockies tomorrow/Monday. The approach of this second impulse will
encourage surface low development across the central/southern High
Plains, supporting another dangerous day of dry/windy conditions
conducive to rapid wildfire spread across the Southwest/southern High
Plains.
...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
Similar to today, boundary-layer mixing and gradient flow will
encourage the development of widespread 20+ mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH across much of
the Southwest into the southern High Plains tomorrow, warranting both
the maintenance and expansion of Elevated/Critical highlights.
Guidance consensus also depicts a corridor of 25+ mph sustained winds
(with higher gusts) overlapping with 10 percent RH (perhaps locally
lower in spots) and anomalously dry fuels, promoting dangerous
conditions supporting extreme fire behavior. Extremely Critical
highlights were introduced where the most volatile surface
meteorological conditions and receptive fuels will coincide for at
least a few hours Monday afternoon.
..Squitieri.. 05/08/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 08 May 2022 06:56:26 +0000
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