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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.05.22 18:46z 359 Lines 16987 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-MAY.22
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 10 May 2022
08:49:01 +0000 Tue, 10 May 2022 08:49:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue May 10 08:49:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Tue May 10 08:49:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 10
May 2022 08:48:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue May 10 08:49:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 10
08:49:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 10 May 2022 08:48:04 +0000
SPC May 10, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM
CDT Tue May 10 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions of
the southern High Plains late in the day Tuesday, accompanied by a
hail/wind risk. A couple of severe storms bringing all-hazards
potential are expected across the central/eastern Wisconsin area
during the afternoon and early evening.
...Wisconsin Area...
Upper ridging is forecast to build north across the mid MS
Valley/Midwest region Tuesday as one dominant upper low digs into the
southwestern US and another holds off the southeast coast. Although
heights will build across WI, modest southwesterly mid-level flow will
be maintained into central portions of the state where 500mb flow
should be on the order of 30-40kt.
Early this morning, a broken line of convection has propagated into
central WI-northeast IA, with more isolated activity trailing into
southwest IA. Remnants of this activity will propagate southeast by
daybreak and likely weaken by the start of the period. Latest model
guidance suggest a weak surface wave may evolve along the boundary
over IA then drift into central WI during the afternoon. While
low-level convergence is not expected to be that strong, weak LLJ will
extend across eastern IA into southern WI. Low-level warm advection
and some boundary-layer heating should contribute to renewed
thunderstorm development within the warm advection zone immediately
ahead of the surface wave. Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer
flow for sustained updrafts, and isolated supercells should ultimately
evolve during the afternoon across this region. Initially convection
may develop atop cooler boundary layer, then within the warm sector
where low-level moisture/buoyancy should prove more favorable for the
possibility for a couple of tornadoes. Otherwise, large hail and
damaging winds are expected with the strongest activity.
...Southern High Plains...
Strengthening mid-level anticyclone over the MS Valley is contributing
to a significant westward push to deeper moisture across TX into the
southern High Plains early this morning. Dryline has retreated to
western OK, northwest TX, to near FST at 05z and this demarcation will
likely move into extreme southeast NM where it will serve as the focus
for convection by late afternoon. Latest HREF model guidance is fairly
aggressive in developing convection across the southern High Plains as
temperatures rise through the 90s, and the lowest 3km lapse rates
steepen into the 8.5-9 C/km range. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
suggests a weak short-wave trough over northern Mexico. This feature
is lifting northeast and will likely contribute to large-scale support
for convection by afternoon. While stronger 500mb flow should hold
across the southern Rockies, modest deep-layer flow/shear will exist
for organized multi-cell clusters and supercells. With modest LLJ
across the southern High Plains, it appears scattered strong/severe
thunderstorms will propagate east during the evening, and this is
supported by latest HREF guidance. Large hail and damaging winds are
expected with this activity.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 05/10/2022
Read more
Tue, 10 May 2022 05:52:15 +0000
SPC May 10, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM
CDT Tue May 10 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA VICINITY EASTWARD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Local risk for scattered severe storms is expected to evolve over
parts of the north-central U.S. Wednesday, with more isolated
hail/wind potential across the central and southern High Plains.
...Eastern South Dakota and vicinity across much of Minnesota...
As the western U.S. trough shifts across the Rockies Wednesday, weak
cyclonic disturbances in south-southwesterly upper-level flow across
the Plains will gradually begin to erode the northwest fringe of the
upper ridge.
As this occurs, a warm front is forecast to shift northward across the
Mid Missouri Valley region through the day. With gradual increases in
large-scale ascent -- associated with the aforementioned upper
disturbances -- focused near and just north of the warm front,
scattered afternoon storm development is expected, most likely
initially in the eastern South Dakota vicinity.
With moderate flow aloft across the region, veering and increasing
with height, expect storms to organize and become locally severe.
While tornado risk should remain limited to areas near the warm front,
hail/wind risk is evident. Greatest wind risk would occur assuming
storms grow upscale linearly, as hinted at within a few of the CAMs.
Risk will spread northeastward with time, across much of Minnesota
through the evening and into the overnight hours.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Eventual/weak height falls spreading into the High Plains -- focused
near a lee trough/dryline -- will result in widely scattered to
isolated afternoon storm development. While modest shear should
generally limit storm organization to some degree, multicell to
occasional weakly rotating storms will likely evolve locally. Along
with some risk for hail, locally damaging winds could occur with the
strongest storms. Storms -- and associated severe risk -- should
diminish later in the evening as the boundary layer diurnally
stabilizes.
...Northeastern Wyoming/southeastern Montana eastward into the
adjacent western Dakotas... As heights fall across the northern High
Plains area -- particularly into the second half of the period,
isolated, high-based, late-afternoon and evening thunderstorm
development is expected. With a dry sub-cloud layer aiding
evaporation, a stronger gust or two will be possible. Wind risk may
spread eastward into portions of the western Dakotas, particularly if
local/upscale growth can occur, allowing a cluster of storms to move
eastward through the evening.
..Goss.. 05/10/2022
Read more
Tue, 10 May 2022 06:07:50 +0000
SPC May 10, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE COLOR
...SUMMARY...
Well-organized severe storms are expected to evolve from the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota southward into the central Plains Thursday.
Very large hail and damaging winds are expected, along with potential
for a couple of tornadoes.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject out of the Rockies
and across the central and northern Plains Thursday, taking on
increasingly negative tilt as it does. Meanwhile, a large upper-level
cyclone will continue to drift westward, shifting into the
southeastern states through the period.
At the surface, a deepening low is progged to move northward across
the Dakotas through the day, and then should rapidly occlude and shift
northwestward overnight, eventually reaching southeastern
Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba by the end of the period.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will cross the northern and central
Plains through the afternoon and evening, to a position from the
western Upper Great Lakes southwestward to western Texas by 13/12Z.
...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward to the
southern High Plains... Steep lapse rates aloft atop a
moist/diurnally heating boundary layer will result in strong
destabilization across the northern and central Plains, within the
warm sector of the evolving surface system. As a developing cold
front advances eastward, strong ascent will help to weaken -- and
eventually eliminate -- capping. This will lead to afternoon storm
development near the front, along with an expansion of elevated storm
coverage north of the warm front over northern portions of the outlook
area.
Initial storms should intensify rapidly given the degree of CAPE
expected, and aided by favorably strong flow through a deep layer that
will overspread the area in conjunction with the advancing upper
system. Along with risk for very large hail, damaging winds an a
couple of tornadoes can be expected during the afternoon with
severe/supercell storms. Greatest risk will likely evolve from
southeastern North Dakota and adjacent west-central Minnesota
southward into eastern Nebraska, and then spread eastward with time as
upscale storm growth likely results in an at least semi-continuous
line of severe storms. While risk for large hail and a couple of
tornadoes should continue well into the evening, potential for
widespread damaging winds appears likely to increase with time
presuming the anticipated/gradual evolution toward a more linear
convective event.
Farther south, across Kansas and western Oklahoma and into western
Texas, storm coverage should be more limited, and severe risk somewhat
more muted. Still, local risk for large hail and strong winds will
exist with a few of the stronger afternoon and evening storms.
..Goss.. 05/10/2022
Read more
Tue, 10 May 2022 07:53:03 +0000
SPC May 10, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346
AM CDT Tue May 10 2022
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper low over southern parts of the Canadian Prairie, and a
short-wave trough extending southward into the north-central U.S.,
will move slowly eastward Day 4, as a southeastern U.S. upper low
moves northwestward. An associated cold front across the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest and extending southwestward to the
southern Plains will weaken with time, while a secondary front
evolves/moves eastward across the northern Plains later in the day.
While thunderstorms should develop along the initial/weakening front,
from Wisconsin southwestward to Texas, relatively weak flow aloft
suggests only local/low-end severe potential. Therefore, no risk
areas will be included for Day 4.
Day 5, as a spokes of short-wave energy/troughing rotate around the
southern periphery of the slowly advancing Canadian low, the
northwestward-moving low over the East will gradually become absorbed
into broadening cyclonic flow around the Canadian low. Models differ
somewhat with this overall evolution, and thus quite a bit of
uncertainty exists regarding cold frontal progression across the Great
Lakes/Midwest, and with the details of the thermodynamic and kinematic
environment in advance of the front. This uncertainty increases
through Day 6, as solutions from the various global models diverge.
Therefore, predictability decreasing steadily through middle and
latter stages of the period precludes confident assessment of severe
potential through the medium range.
Read more
Tue, 10 May 2022 08:49:01 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114
AM CDT Tue May 10 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
...Synopsis...
A blocked upper flow regime will prevail across the CONUS today, with
a broad upper trough meandering across the western/central U.S. as a
mid-level low remains stationary off of the Atlantic Coast. While a
broad swath of low-level moisture will usher northward across the
Plains due to lee troughing, dry and windy conditions are expected to
develop across portions of the Southwest and along the East Coast,
promoting fire weather concerns.
...Southwest...
Strong, deep-layer southerly flow will persist across the Southwest as
an upper trough and associated surface low meanders around the Four
Corners region today. At the surface, dry and windy conditions are
expected across the Southwest through the afternoon, promoting
Critical wildfire-spread potential. Elevated highlights have been
introduced for areas that should see 15+ mph sustained
south-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH
through the afternoon, and where fuels are at least modestly receptive
to wildfire spread. Critical highlights have also been introduced
where 20+ mph winds and RH below 15 percent will overlap with
critically dry fuels through the afternoon.
...New England...
Dry northeasterly surface winds up to 15 mph will spread across parts
of New England given the presence of a cyclone situated off of the
Atlantic coastline. By afternoon peak heating, surface RH will drop
below 30 percent over portions of southern New Hampshire into
Massachusetts and Connecticut. Fuel guidance suggests that fuels have
recently become quite receptive to wildfire spread, with Elevated
highlights introduced for areas where the aforementioned overlapping
surface winds/RH will occur, and where rainfall accumulations have
remained at/under 0.50 inches in the past 2 weeks.
...Southeast...
Surface high pressure and associated dry northerly flow will prevail
across southern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle and central Florida
Peninsula this afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the
20-35 percent range by afternoon peak heating, where the latest
forecast fuel guidance shows ERCs in the 80-95th percentile range.
However, surface winds are expected to be weak overall (barely
reaching 10 mph in several locales), hence the withholding of fire
weather highlights. Nonetheless, at least localized wildfire-spread
concerns will exist wherever gusty winds may develop.
..Squitieri.. 05/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 10 May 2022 06:16:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135
AM CDT Tue May 10 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
...Synopsis...
Surface-low intensification is expected around the Four Corners as the
upper trough ejects eastward and overspreads the Rockies
tomorrow/Wednesday. 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds
will coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon as the boundary layer
mixes, promoting at least Elevated conditions for wildfire spread
across the Southwest. Critical highlights have also been introduced
where the strongest winds/lowest RH overlap for several hours atop
critically dry fuels Wednesday afternoon.
Dry northerly flow will continue across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow
as a surface low meanders off of the Atlantic Coast. Latest guidance
consensus shows RH dropping below 30 percent by afternoon peak
heating, with some guidance members showing surface winds reaching 15
mph at times. Confidence is not quite high enough to introduce
Elevated highlights, given the lack of upper support to force a
stronger low-level wind field. If guidance continues to depict more
widespread 15 mph winds in later guidance, future outlooks may include
Elevated highlights for the western half of the Florida Peninsula.
..Squitieri.. 05/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 10 May 2022 06:36:27 +0000
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