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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.05.22 18:36z 326 Lines 15014 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-MAY.22
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Sent: 220512/1830Z 6818@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 12 May 2022
09:31:01 +0000 Thu, 12 May 2022 09:31:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu May 12 09:31:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Thu May 12 09:31:01 UTC 2022. Thu, 12
May 2022 09:30:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu May 12 09:31:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 12
09:31:01 UTC 2022. Thu, 12 May 2022 09:30:04 +0000
SPC May 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM
CDT Thu May 12 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Well-organized severe storms are expected to evolve from the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota southward into the central Plains Today. Very
large hail and severe gusts are expected, along with the potential for
at least a few tornadoes.
...Synopsis...
A compact, negatively tilted trough will eject into the northern
Plains today, supporting the intensification of a surface low near the
NE/SD border, which will track north-northeast through the day. Ample
low-level moisture will advect ahead of the surface low across the
warm sector and will be overspread by cold temperatures aloft,
promoting large amounts of buoyancy across the northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley. Modest veering/strengthening of the vertical wind
profile and deep-layer ascent amid large buoyancy will support
widespread, vigorous convective development capable of all severe
hazards.
...Northern Great Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Elevated convection, perhaps in the form of transient supercells, may
be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Dakotas.
Here, 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE (mainly above 700 mb) will be in place given
the presence of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. 40 kt 850 mb flow
veering while increasing to near 70 kts at 500 mb will contribute to
50-60 kts of effective bulk shear, which may support organized,
sustained elevated storms with a severe-hail threat given the
aforementioned buoyancy.
Later in the afternoon and evening, the surface low will strengthen
modestly while translating north-northeastward towards the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will advect
a high-theta-e airmass northward across the eastern northern Plains
states, with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints likely becoming
widespread ahead of a surface cold front. As 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse
rates overspread a deepening, mixing boundary layer through the
afternoon, 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE will become common. Strong forcing for
ascent will support widespread convection developing ahead of the
front as CINH erodes. Transient supercells are expected to be the
initial mode of convection, posing a threat for very large hail (given
the high magnitude of CAPE in the hail-growth zone). However,
mid-level winds should have a considerable parallel component of flow
to the boundary, and storms are expected to quickly form a squall line
a few hours after initiation. At that point, numerous severe gusts
should occur, with large hail becoming a secondary threat.
Closer to the surface low in eastern SD into western MN, low-level
winds will be backed more, with greater low-level
veering/strengthening with height supporting enlarged 0-3km hodographs
and 200+ m2/s2 of effective SRH. Given a potentially strongly unstable
environment, at least a few tornadoes are possible, especially if any
sustained, discrete storms can develop just ahead of the surface low.
Otherwise, a couple of tornadoes may still occur with embedded
mesovortices associated with linear convection that can favorably
interact with the warm front.
..Southern High Plains...
Deep-layer ascent will be largely displaced farther north, with the
main source of ascent for convection being weak convergence along a
diffuse dryline. By afternoon peak heating, very isolated
thunderstorms may develop ahead of the dryline. Modest deep-layer
shear suggests that transient supercells may be the predominant mode
of convection, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with any
sustained storm. However, the very sparse expected coverage warrants
only Category 1/Marginal probabilities at this time.
...Portions of eastern Louisiana into central Mississippi...
Deep-layer northeasterly flow will prevail across the Southeast given
the presence of a near-stationary upper low just east of the Florida
Peninsula. By afternoon peak heating, multicellular storm clusters are
expected to develop in a moist, but well-mixed boundary layer. Steep
low-level lapse rates will contribute to 2000+ j/kg MLCAPE. As
thunderstorms progress in this environment, adequate evaporative
cooling within the mixed boundary layer will promote at least a couple
of damaging gusts, warranting Category 1/Marginal probabilities.
..Squitieri/Darrow.. 05/12/2022
Read more
Thu, 12 May 2022 06:00:10 +0000
SPC May 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Thu May 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN TO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Friday from
the Upper Great Lakes to the southern Plains, with isolated stronger
storms becoming capable of damaging wind/hail production. A few
storms with limited hail/wind risk may also evolve over the Lower
Mississippi Valley area.
...Synopsis...
An upper low initially over the northern Plains is forecast to move
slowly northward into the Canadian Prairie Friday, while a
southeastern U.S. upper low weakens as it drifts northward.
At the surface, a weakening cold front -- extending from the Upper
Great Lakes to the southern Plains, will make slow
eastward/southeastward progress through the period.
...Upper Michigan south-southwestward to the southern Plains...
As the upper system shifts northward into Canada, a weakening cold
front is forecast to move slowly eastward across the Upper Great
Lakes, and southeastward across the Mid Mississippi
Valley/Ozarks/southern Plains. Steep lapse rates aloft, atop a very
moist/diurnally warming boundary layer, will result in moderate to
strong destabilization, yielding bscattered afternoon storm
development within a zone of ascent in the vicinity of the front.
While locally vigorous updrafts are expected, flow aloft will remain
modest -- particularly with southward extent. Still, at least local
multicell -- to perhaps weak supercell -- organization is expected.
As such, damaging winds and large hail can be expected with stronger
storms. Risk should diminish during the evening in most areas, though
some models hint that some upscale growth may occur during the
evening, mainly over southern portions of the risk area, which could
allow some severe risk to linger into the overnight hours.
...Lower Mississippi Valley region...
A weak trough/convergence axis is progged to reside across the lower
Mississippi Valley area Friday. This -- in conjunction with the
moist/moderately unstable airmass expected across the area -- will
support potential for afternoon storm development.
While flow aloft will remain modest, a northerly component aloft --
around the back side of the retrograding southeastern U.S. upper low
-- could allow some upscale/linear clustering of southward-moving
convection. Assuming this organization occurs, strong/gusty winds
could occur in a few areas, along with local risk for hail.
..Goss.. 05/12/2022
Read more
Thu, 12 May 2022 06:03:54 +0000
SPC May 12, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM
CDT Thu May 12 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI/NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms are expected across portions of the
central third of the U.S. -- particularly from the Kansas/Oklahoma
vicinity eastward toward the Ozarks.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low over the Canadian Prairie is forecast to shift
slowly eastward Saturday, while disturbances embedded in northwesterly
flow aloft shift southeastward across the Plains/Upper Midwest through
the period.
At the surface, a dissipating cold front will shift eastward across
the Midwest, while a second shifts southeastward across the northern
and central Plains -- to a position from the Upper Great Lakes region
southwestward to Oklahoma by the end of the period.
...Upper Mississippi Valley to the southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon along a
cold front, from the western Upper Great Lakes southwestward to
western Texas. Modest flow aloft is expected across northern portions
of this region, which in tandem with weaker instability as compared to
areas farther south, should limit overall severe risk to
isolated/stronger storms.
Over the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity, a more favorably moist boundary
layer will destabilize in conjunction with daytime heating, to yield
moderate CAPE. This will support development of isolated storms by
late afternoon -- which should organize locally given moderate
northwesterly flow aloft, atop the low-level southerlies. With
low-level shear expected to remain rather weak, damaging winds and
hail will be the primary concerns.
During the evening, as a low-level jet develops over the southern
Plains region, upscale growth of convection into an
east-southeastward-moving MCS appears possible, which would allow wind
risk to potentially increase somewhat, spreading into parts of
southwestern Missouri/northwestern Arkansas overnight.
..Goss.. 05/12/2022
Read more
Thu, 12 May 2022 07:31:11 +0000
SPC May 12, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351
AM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models show reasonable similarity in moving a cold front
eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Day 4/Sunday, and then
across the Northeast and eventually off the New England and
Mid-Atlantic Coasts Day 5/Monday. Some severe risk will likely
accompany the advance of this front, but smaller-scale model
differences regarding specifics of the CAPE/shear environment ahead of
the front cast some uncertainty as to degree/coverage of risk. This
precludes any introduction of severe-weather probabilities for the
Ohio Valley Region Day 4, and the Northeast Day 5.
As the front clears the coast Day 5, attention shifts westward to the
northern and central High Plains/central Plains area, as the western
fringe of the front retreats northward. With a return of higher
theta-e air east of the Front Range, and moderate/increasingly zonal
flow aloft, the general pattern would support afternoon High Plains
convective development, shifting eastward into lower elevations of the
Plains overnight in tandem with the nocturnal low-level jet cycle.
However, with subtle features embedded within the broader flow field
modulating degree of risk, predictability precludes highlighting
specifics regarding potential areas of greater threat at this time.
Models begin to deviate at larger scales later Day 7 (Wednesday), and
then diverge substantially by Thursday (Day 8), with respect to the
development and progression of a substantial western U.S. trough.
This increasing uncertainty precludes a severe-weather risk assessment
through latter stages of the period.
Read more
Thu, 12 May 2022 08:53:59 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139
AM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INTO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies today,
encouraging the deepening of a surface cyclone across the northern
Plains states. As such, deep-layer westerly flow over the Rockies will
encourage strong downslope flow from the Colorado Front Range
southward into eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. 25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 5-15 percent RH by
afternoon peak heating will encourage high-end Critical fire weather
conditions along the immediate lee of the central Rockies given the
anomalously dry fuels in the area. Locally Extremely Critical
conditions may also appear in terrain-favoring areas where the ambient
winds can be channeled, as well as any location experiencing
persistent higher gusts through the afternoon.
..Squitieri.. 05/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 12 May 2022 06:42:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140
AM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
As an upper trough ejects into Canada at the start of the day
tomorrow/Friday, zonal flow aloft will prevail across the western and
central CONUS. High pressure and weaker ambient surface winds will
prevail across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains,
serving as a reprieve from the many preceding days of Critical
wildfire-spread conditions. Nonetheless, anomalously dry fuels will
still remain across much of the Southwest into the High Plains due to
an ongoing exceptional drought. Any terrain-favoring locations that
can generate gusty conditions amid very low RH would support localized
wildfire spread.
..Squitieri.. 05/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 12 May 2022 06:43:18 +0000
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