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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.05.22 20:36z 285 Lines 12712 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6849_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-MAY.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220513/1830Z 6849@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 13 May 2022
09:02:01 +0000 Fri, 13 May 2022 09:02:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri May 13 09:02:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Fri May 13 09:02:02 UTC 2022. Fri, 13
May 2022 09:01:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri May 13 09:02:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 13
09:02:02 UTC 2022. Fri, 13 May 2022 09:01:04 +0000
SPC May 13, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM
CDT Fri May 13 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Friday from
the Upper Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains. The stronger
storms will be capable of damaging gusts and hail.
...Upper Great Lakes to Southern Great Plains...
Several large-scale features will persist across the CONUS through the
upcoming day1 period, namely the persistent upper low that has
retrograded into the southeastern portions of the US. As a result,
stronger westerlies extend across the Pacific Northwest into the upper
MS Valley with much weaker flow across lower latitudes. This is
especially true ahead of a cold front that will be the primary focus
for convection later today
Latest model guidance suggest a strong post frontal 500mb speed max
will translate across MN into western ON by early evening. This
feature should encourage an associated cold front to advance into
western WI by 18z, extending southwest across northern MO into western
OK and the TX South Plains. Strong boundary-layer heating will
contribute to warm-sector buoyancy ahead of the wind shift, but
surface-3km lapse rates will be especially steep from southwestern OK
into west TX where surface temperatures will soar into the 90s by mid
afternoon. Scattered convection is expected to initiate by early
afternoon, especially across WI/eastern IA where larger scale forcing
will briefly influence this early development. Forecast soundings
exhibit substantial SBCAPE (2000 J/kg) but only modest surface-6km
bulk shear. Convection that develops at lower latitudes will be
equally sheared but within a steeper low-level lapse rate environment
and significantly more instability. Thunderstorms will likely hold off
developing until late afternoon across the southern Great Plains as
the front settles into this weakly capped environment. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary concern with scattered convection
along/ahead of the front later this afternoon/evening.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 05/13/2022
Read more
Fri, 13 May 2022 05:34:11 +0000
SPC May 13, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM
CDT Fri May 13 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms are expected across portions of the
central third of the U.S. -- particularly from the Kansas/Oklahoma
vicinity eastward toward the Ozarks.
...Synopsis...
As an upper low over the Canadian Prairie drifts slowly northeastward
with time, weak/flat ridging will expand northward across the
southwestern and south central states with time. Nearer the low, over
the north-central states, faster, west-northwesterly flow aloft will
prevail. Farther east, the weakening upper low drifting northward
across the eastern U.S. will gradually become absorbed within the
broadening cyclonic flow associated with the central Canada upper low.
At the surface, a weakening cold front is forecast to move across the
Great Lakes/Midwest during the day, while later, a secondary cold
front crosses the northern Plains through the afternoon and evening.
By the end of the period, this front should stretch from Lower
Michigan west-southwestward to Nebraska.
...Upper Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley...
Afternoon storm development is forecast near the weakening front
moving across the region, as afternoon heating of a moist boundary
layer, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, results in moderate
destabilization. While flow aloft will remain rather weak, a few
stronger/multicell storms may produce hail and/or strong wind gusts.
Risk should be strongly diurnal, diminishing after sunset.
...Upper Mississippi Valley to Oklahoma/Arkansas...
Isolated storm development is expected during the afternoon within a
modestly destabilizing warm sector ahead of the advancing/secondary
cold front, from the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward across the
Mid Missouri Valley. Though instability will be limited --
particularly with northeastward extent away from the central Plains,
moderate flow aloft may permit a few stronger storms capable of
producing strong/gusty winds and perhaps marginal hail.
Overnight, as a weak low-level jet develops over the central Plains,
isolated/nocturnal convective development may occur, with a few
stronger storms/clusters of storms possibly posing low-end severe
risk.
...Southern High Plains...
Afternoon heating/destabilization along a lee-trough/dryline will
likely support very isolated storm development. Modest flow aloft
should limit convective intensity overall, though a few
stronger/high-based storms may produce gusty winds locally.
..Goss.. 05/13/2022
Read more
Fri, 13 May 2022 06:05:51 +0000
SPC May 13, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM
CDT Fri May 13 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO EASTERN KANSAS/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are expected from the Lower Great
Lakes area southwestward across the Ohio/Tennessee/Mid Mississippi
Valleys to Kansas/Oklahoma/northeast Texas. Locally damaging winds
and hail will be the primary risks.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over central Canada, and an associated trough trailing
southward into the Upper Midwest, will dig south-southeastward Sunday,
approaching western fringes of the Appalachians overnight.
At the surface, a cold front -- trialing southwestward from Canadian
low pressure -- will advance similarly eastward/southeastward across
the southern and eastern U.S. through the period.
...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to eastern parts of Kansas and
Oklahoma, and the Arklatex... Diurnal heating/destabilization is
forecast ahead of a cold front progged to advance eastward across the
Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio Valley, and southeastward across the
Tennessee and Mid Mississippi Valleys and southern Plains. Along and
ahead of this front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to develop diurnally.
While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of this front,
moderate westerly/northwesterly flow aloft spreading into the
pre-frontal warm sector will foster growth of locally organized/severe
storms, with some upscale/linear growth expected. Locally damaging
winds will be the main severe risk, though hail will also be possible.
While much of the convection will tend to peak diurnally in the late
afternoon/early evening, convection -- and some severe risk -- may
linger after dark, particularly across southwestern portions of the
outlook area where greater instability will reside.
..Goss.. 05/13/2022
Read more
Fri, 13 May 2022 07:33:08 +0000
SPC May 13, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359
AM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement through roughly Day 6,
with a cold front to move across the Northeast Day 4/Monday. Some
severe risk may evolve east of the central Appalachians -- across the
southern New England/Mid-Atlantic vicinity, but with some potential
apparent at this time for morning/early afternoon frontal passage
across much of the area, will not introduce an areal highlight at this
time.
Meanwhile, from later in the day on Day 4 through Days 5 and 6, focus
will shift westward into the High Plains/central Plains region, as the
trailing portion of the baroclinic zone begins to retreat northward,
allowing return of higher theta-e air into the central states. While
details differ a bit between various model runs with respect to timing
of features embedded in the westerly/west-northwesterly flow aloft,
and the northward advance of the warm front, at least some severe risk
is expected over the central portion of the country near and east of
the Front Range. Day 6, severe potential may expand eastward, as the
remnant front retreats northward, allowing return of higher theta-e
northward, beneath the belt of stronger quasi-zonal flow aloft. Again
however, uncertainty in location/speed of the northward advance of the
front, and associated high theta-e boundary layer, casts enough
uncertainty so as to preclude outlook areal introduction at this time.
Finally, model solutions begin to diverge rather substantially through
Days 7-8, with the evolution/advance of a substantial western U.S.
trough. While this system would undoubtedly be accompanied by an
increase in severe potential, details remain far too uncertain to
quantify/locate potential severe risk levels in any area.
Read more
Fri, 13 May 2022 09:01:59 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139
AM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough, currently near the Nevada/Utah border,
will shift east this morning and take on a negative tilt as it moves
through the northern Plains. At the surface, a strong surface low will
continue to deepen as it moves into North Dakota and eventually into
the southern Canadian Prairie. Some deep mixing is expected across
Nebraska and southern South Dakota which could result in some dry and
breezy conditions. However, fuels are quite moist across this region,
and therefore, the fire weather threat should remain limited.
Dry conditions will remain across the Southwestern states where fuels
are near record dryness in some locations. However, winds will be
light, precluding the fire weather threat.
..Bentley.. 05/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 13 May 2022 06:41:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140
AM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will build into the western CONUS on Saturday. Some
stronger flow will remain across the Northern Plains as the pattern
amplifies. Some deep mixing is expected beneath this stronger
mid-level flow which will lead to some dry and breezy conditions
across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska. ERCs are low across
these areas and therefore, the fire weather threat should remain
minimal despite the potential for dry and breezy conditions.
Ridging building across the Southwest will keep surface winds
relatively weak on Saturday. This will result in benign fire weather
conditions.
..Bentley.. 05/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 13 May 2022 06:42:16 +0000
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