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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.05.22 22:36z 269 Lines 12528 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-MAY.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220514/1831Z 6897@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 14 May 2022
09:58:02 +0000 Sat, 14 May 2022 09:58:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat May 14 09:58:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sat May 14 09:58:02 UTC 2022. Sat, 14
May 2022 09:57:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat May 14 09:58:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 14
09:58:02 UTC 2022. Sat, 14 May 2022 09:57:04 +0000
SPC May 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CDT Sat May 14 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes regions, mainly
this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threats. Some threat may redevelop late tonight across
parts of Nebraska and Kansas.
...Synopsis...
Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move eastward from the
northern/central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the
period, while a mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS
continues to weaken and begins to drift eastward. At the surface, a
cold front will move through the central/northern Plains and upper
Great Lakes, while a weaker front becomes increasingly ill-defined
from the southern Plains into the mid-MS Valley.
With the main synoptic features displaced to the north of the more
favorable low-level moisture and instability, the organized severe
thunderstorm threat may remain seasonably limited, but pockets of
stronger storms will be possible across portions of the Great Plains,
Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes regions.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible across parts of west
TX/OK this afternoon, along/east of a weak surface trough/dryline.
Flow fields will generally be weak across the region, but modest
northwesterly flow aloft may favor some brief storm organization.
Moderate to locally strong instability will support an isolated hail
threat, while inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE will support a
threat of localized downbursts.
...Central Plains...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
cold front this afternoon across the central Plains into portions of
the Midwest. There is some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
low-level moisture and buoyancy ahead of the front, but steep
low/midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear will support a
localized hail/wind threat with the strongest storms.
Renewed thunderstorm development is possible overnight across parts of
southern NE and northern KS, as a strong midlevel shortwave trough
begins to approach the area from the northwest. Elevated buoyancy and
deep-layer shear may become sufficient for some storm organization,
with a risk of hail and locally gusty winds.
...Lower MS Valley into the Great Lakes...
Similar to Friday, a broad region from the lower MS Valley into
portions of the Great Lakes will be in a regime characterized by
moderate buoyancy, relatively cool midlevel temperatures, and weak
north to northwesterly flow aloft. A few weakly organized
cells/clusters will be possible within this regime, potentially posing
a risk of localized hail and damaging wind gusts.
..Dean/Bentley.. 05/14/2022
Read more
Sat, 14 May 2022 06:03:17 +0000
SPC May 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM
CDT Sat May 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are expected from the Ohio Valley area
southwestward across the Tennessee and Mid Mississippi Valleys to
Kansas/Oklahoma/northeast Texas. Locally damaging winds and hail will
be the primary risks. A couple of severe storms -- capable of
producing damaging winds and/or hail -- will also be possible across
portions of the northwestern states.
...Southeastern Kansas east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley,
and southward into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Mississippi... As
an upper low moves slowly east-southeastward out of Manitoba and into
Ontario, a short-wave trough extending south from the cyclone will dig
southeastward out of the northern Plains, and across the Upper Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest/Mid Missouri Valley through the afternoon.
As this occurs, daytime heating/destabilization is expected ahead of a
cold front stretching from the Upper Great Lakes to Oklahoma/western
Texas during the afternoon. As a result, expect storms to develop
from the Indiana vicinity southwestward across Missouri and into parts
of southeastern Kansas and Oklahoma.
With a 60-plus kt northwesterly mid-level jet spreading southeastward
across the Missouri Valley through the afternoon on the southwestern
fringe of the digging upper trough, shear will favor organized
convection. Therefore, a few supercells are expected initially, but
then upscale growth into southeastward-moving lines/clusters of storms
should occur. Damaging winds would likely eventually become the
primary severe risk with these lines/clusters, though hail and a
tornado would also be possible.
Storms should continue through the evening, especially across western
portions of the outlook area, while gradually decreasing through late
evening and into the overnight hours across the Ohio Valley area.
...Western New York southward across the central Appalachians...
scattered thunderstorm development is forecast near higher terrain of
the central Appalachians Sunday afternoon, with a modestly
destabilizing airmass. Along with somewhat limited CAPE, shear is
also forecast to be a bit on the weak side with respect to organized
storms. Still, a couple of stronger storms/storm clusters may evolve
through the afternoon, capable primarily of locally gusty winds before
weakening into the evening hours.
...Eastern Oregon/southeastern Washington to western Montana...
A short-wave trough -- embedded in southwesterly cyclonic flow south
of a Gulf of Alaska upper low -- is progged to shift northeastward
into the Pacific Northwest during the day Sunday. Daytime heating of
a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of an associated/advancing cold
front will combine with steepening lapse rates aloft to yield modest
(around 500 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE.
Isolated storms are expected to initiate near the front, across the
eastern Oregon vicinity, as it shifts eastward through the evening.
While low-level flow should remain relative weak, veering/increasing
flow with height will provide shear favorable for rotating updrafts.
As a result, a couple of the strongest storms will be capable of
producing hail and locally damaging winds, with risk spreading
eastward across parts of Idaho and possibly western Montana, before
storms weaken overnight.
..Goss.. 05/14/2022
Read more
Sat, 14 May 2022 06:05:47 +0000
SPC May 14, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM
CDT Sat May 14 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are expected Monday from eastern New
York/western New England southward into the Southeast. Locally
damaging winds and some hail will be the primary severe risks, though
a tornado is also possible during the afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A rather vigorous upper trough is forecast to sweep across the eastern
U.S. Monday, along with a belt of strong cyclonic mid-level
westerlies. Meanwhile upstream, a rather broad ridge will affect much
of the western and central CONUS.
At the surface, a cold front -- lying west of the Appalachians at the
start of the period, will advance quickly eastward, cresting the
mountains through midday, and then continuing steadily eastward to
clear the New England and Middle Atlantic Coasts by the end of the
period.
...Eastern New York/western New England southward into the
Southeast... As a cold front shifts east of the higher terrain of the
Appalachians during the day, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist
boundary layer will result in gradual warm-sector destabilization. As
a result, expect a gradual increase in convection near and ahead of
the advancing cold front.
With a 60 to 70 kt cyclonic/westerly mid-level jet streak forecast to
spread across the central Appalachians/New England, shear will favor
organized/fast-moving storms, and attendant risk for locally damaging
winds. Greatest risk will likely extend southward across Virginia,
and then diminishing with southwestward extent across the Southeast
where flow aloft will remain markedly weaker.
Risk should also diminish as storms near the New England and Mid
Atlantic Coasts, where cooler Atlantic low-level air should maintain a
stable boundary layer.
..Goss.. 05/14/2022
Read more
Sat, 14 May 2022 07:22:05 +0000
SPC May 14, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349
AM CDT Sat May 14 2022
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Agreement amongst global model solutions begins to break down Day
5/Wednesday over North America, particularly with the evolution of a
low centered over the Hudson Bay vicinity Day 4. The ECMWF lingers
this low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay through the period, while the
GFS weakens the low and ejects it across eastern Canada Days 7-8.
As a result of the differing evolutions of this low as depicted by the
various models, corresponding differences are evident over the
northern U.S. with respect to the upper pattern -- and thus the
surface pattern as well. Therefore, predictability precludes any
confident assessment of severe potential through middle and latter
stages of the period.
Meanwhile, on Day 4/Tuesday, and into Day 5, a series of subtle
cyclonic disturbances -- embedded within fast westerly quasi-zonal
flow over most of the CONUS -- will shift out of the Rockies and
across central and eastern portions of the country. With a lee-side
low over the central High Plains -- maintained by the westerlies aloft
-- forecast to drift into the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity overnight, with
a warm front arcing northeastward and then eastward into the Mid
Mississippi Valley.
Capping associated with the eastward advection of an elevated mixed
layer is expected across the southern Plains, which will likely limit
warm-sector storms. However, in the vicinity of the warm front,
afternoon convective development is expected, which will likely then
be sustained through the evening as a southerly low-level jet
develops. With moderate CAPE across the area, and 30 to 50 kt
mid-level flow contributing to ample shear for organized/severe
storms, a 15% area is being introduced at this time.
Day 5/Wednesday, a continuation of at least some severe potential will
likely shift eastward across the Mid Mississippi and into the Ohio
Valley. However, evolving/increasing model differences with time
precludes an areal highlight for Day 5, and onward through the end of
the period.
Read more
Sat, 14 May 2022 08:52:01 +0000
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