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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.05.22 18:37z 360 Lines 16569 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-MAY.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 16 May 2022
09:09:01 +0000 Mon, 16 May 2022 09:09:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon May 16 09:09:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Mon May 16 09:09:01 UTC 2022. Mon, 16
May 2022 09:08:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon May 16 09:09:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 16
09:09:01 UTC 2022. Mon, 16 May 2022 09:08:04 +0000
SPC May 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Mon May 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected Monday from central
New York/western New England southward into the Carolinas. Damaging
winds, hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible through about 00Z.
In addition, scattered severe storms are expected to move from eastern
New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with a threat for large hail and
severe wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic
during the day today. A 55 to 60 knot mid-level jet will round the
base of this trough and overspread portions of the Mid-Atlantic during
the afternoon/evening hours as the trough becomes negatively tilted. A
surface low will develop along the frontal boundary and deepen through
the day as it lifts northeast from western Pennsylvania into central
New York.
Farther west, a ridge centered over the Rockies will deamplify through
the day as several weak shortwave impulses eject from the broad trough
over the eastern Pacific. The strongest of these mid-level impulses
will move from southern California at 12Z this morning to the central
Rockies by late this evening.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
Storms should be ongoing at the beginning of the period along and
ahead of the surface front from eastern Ohio into eastern Kentucky.
Initially, instability will be limited due to the cool temperatures
and meager moisture (mid-upper 50s dewpoints). However, expect storm
intensity to increase by late morning as the boundary layer warms.
The greatest instability is expected across eastern New York, and east
of the Appalachian crests across the Mid-Atlantic where low 60s
dewpoints are already in place this morning and are expected to
increase further by early afternoon as the surface low deepens and
brings a higher theta-e airmass poleward.
The line of storms will likely be fractured across western
Pennsylvania and western New York during the morning, but it is
expected to congeal into a squall line by mid-day as storms reach this
reservoir of greater instability. In addition, lower-tropospheric flow
is forecast to strengthen gradually through the day which should also
aid in storm organization.
Strong instability and moderate lower tropospheric flow combined with
the strong forcing should support widespread damaging winds along this
squall line. However, modest lapse rates (6 to 6.5 in the low and mid
levels) and DCAPE (300-500 J/kg) may preclude the potential for
significant (65 kt) winds.
Moderately strong ascent atop an uncapped warm sector will likely be
sufficient for some warm sector storm development ahead of the squall
line. Moderate effective shear would support supercell storm mode from
this activity with primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.
...Carolinas to the Gulf Coast....
A relative minima in low-level instability is forecast across the
Carolinas into Georgia this afternoon as dewpoints mix into the low
60s ahead of the cold front. Some isolated storms remain possible with
a marginal threat for large hail and damaging wind. The greater storm
coverage is expected along the Gulf Coast where dewpoints should
remain in the upper 60s to near 70, yielding moderate to strong
instability. Mid-level flow will remain quite weak across this region,
but may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The weak shear and
inconsistent storm coverage from 00Z CAM guidance precludes the need
for a slight risk across this region.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Low-level moist advection is occurring across the southern High Plains
this morning with 50 degree dewpoints to the TX/New Mexico border.
This will continue as lee cyclogenesis strengthens through the day. As
a result, low to mid 50s dewpoints are expected near the dryline in
eastern New Mexico by mid day. Mid-level height falls will overspread
the southern and central High Plains by mid day and scattered storms
are expected to develop along the dryline from eastern Colorado into
eastern New Mexico by early to mid-afternoon. Shear will be
sufficient for at least some storm organization and potentially
supercells early. However, forecast soundings are very supportive for
strong downburst winds and relatively quick cold pool development,
with upscale growth anticipated. This is supported by the majority of
00Z CAM guidance which shows at least a broken line of storms moving
out of eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle. Instability
will increase with eastward extent which could allow the threat to
persist into the early overnight hours. Have ended the marginal
delineation in western Oklahoma where storms are expected to be around
05-06Z which is approximately when storms are expected to weaken.
...Portions of the Northern Rockies...
Storms are expected to form over the Continental Divide this afternoon
as a weak shortwave traverses the region. A few sustained storms are
possible given the weak instability and moderate effective shear.
Marginally large hail and a damaging wind gust or two will be the
primary threats from this activity.
..Bentley/Dean.. 05/16/2022
Read more
Mon, 16 May 2022 06:04:15 +0000
SPC May 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR NDFD HAIL GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the
central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday and Tuesday
night.
...Synopsis...
A progressive/largely zonal upper-level pattern will prevail over the
CONUS on Tuesday, with the strongest westerlies over the northern half
of the CONUS.
...Central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley...
Potentially multiple low-amplitude disturbances, some of which may be
convectively augmented, will overspread the central Rockies/central
Plains to Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday amidst of ribbon of
moderately strong west-northwesterly flow aloft. A strong elevated
mixed layer will advect eastward over the region and tend to limit the
likelihood/confidence in deep convective development with southward
extent across the region.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across the
region early Tuesday, some of which could produce isolated severe hail
coincident with ample elevated instability on the edge of the elevated
mixed layer.
With afternoon heating/mixing, the boundary layer will otherwise
become moderately to strongly unstable by late Tuesday afternoon. At
least isolated/widely scattered deep convective development appears
probable especially near the boundary across Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota into northern Kansas. Other potentially strong/severe
thunderstorms, albeit driven by lesser buoyancy, may develop across
eastern Wyoming/northeast Colorado within an evolving low-level
upslope flow regime.
With moderate-strength westerly flow aloft, some initial supercells
can be expected along with multicells and the potential evolution of
multiple clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to the
primary hazards. Storms should increase in coverage toward/after
sunset as the low-level jet re-intensifies and contributes to the
east-southeastward persistence of storms Tuesday night, some of which
may remain severe into the overnight.
...Southern High Plains...
Very isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop in vicinity of the
dryline/surface trough Tuesday late afternoon. Most global models are
relatively sparse in terms of convective development, but multiple
convection-allowing models lend some support to this possibility
across west/northwest Texas and far western Oklahoma. Accordingly, a
low probability of thunderstorms (near 10 percent) appears warranted,
and strong convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur Tuesday late
afternoon and early evening if/where storms develop.
..Guyer.. 05/16/2022
Read more
Mon, 16 May 2022 06:12:57 +0000
SPC May 16, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM
CDT Mon May 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO FRONT RANGE TO THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday especially across parts
of the Lower Ohio Valley and the south-central High Plains.
...Lower Ohio Valley...
Current thinking is that early day thunderstorms will be ongoing
Wednesday morning, likely aided by a convectively enhanced vorticity
maxima as well as warm/moist advection. Downstream thunderstorm
reintensification is expected on the southern fringes of this early
day activity and along/south of a warm front. This should result in an
afternoon uptick in severe storms across parts of the Lower Ohio
Valley to the nearby Appalachians, with damaging winds and severe hail
as the primary hazards.
A Slight Risk is plausible in future outlook updates, although
uncertainties regarding the extent/placement of early day convection
and downstream impacts precludes a categorical Slight Risk at this
time.
...Colorado/New Mexico Front Range and south-central Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon across the
Colorado/New Mexico Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity. This scenario
will be aided by modestly moist upslope trajectories. Modest strength
mid-level westerlies atop east-southeasterly low-level winds could
support a few supercells and sustained multicells capable of hail and
perhaps localized severe-caliber winds. A loosely organized cluster of
storms could evolve by early evening and spread east-southeastward
across the south-central High Plains, potentially including southwest
Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
..Guyer.. 05/16/2022
Read more
Mon, 16 May 2022 07:32:12 +0000
SPC May 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406
AM CDT Mon May 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
For Day 4/Thursday, severe-weather potential is expected to be focused
across the Upper Midwest. This relates to the expected amplification
of an upper trough over the northern Plains and an increasingly moist
air mass that is likely to develop northward across the Upper Midwest
ahead of a cold front. Severe thunderstorms on Thursday currently
appear most probable across portions of Iowa/Minnesota into Wisconsin.
On Day 5/Friday, a broad warm/moist sector ahead of a cold front and
the prominent amplifying upper trough over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest is expected to lead to a broad severe-weather potential
across the Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity southwestward toward the
Ozarks and ArkLaTex region.
On Day 6/Saturday, while upstream storms may linger early in the day
ahead of the cold front, additional thunderstorm development and
intensification should occur across the Upper Ohio Valley and
central/northern Appalachians vicinity as the air mass diurnally
destabilizes. Moderately strong southwesterly winds will contribute to
organized storms capable of damaging winds and some hail.
Thereafter, increasing spread among numerical guidance relates to
limited predictability into Days 7/8.
Read more
Mon, 16 May 2022 09:08:56 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120
AM CDT Mon May 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
A midlevel ridge will begin to weaken today as a series of upper-level
shortwave troughs move across parts of the central/southern Rockies. A
weak surface low is expected to develop across the central High
Plains, with a lee trough potentially extending southward into parts
of NM and west TX.
...Parts of NM/CO into the central/southern High Plains...
Gradually increasing low/midlevel flow will support sustained winds of
15-20 mph (locally higher) across much of NM/west TX into southern CO
and parts of the High Plains. These winds, in conjunction with RH
dropping below 15% across NM/west TX, and potentially into the 20-25%
range across southeast CO/western KS, will support elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions.
High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
from eastern NM into southeast CO. Some locally higher precipitation
amounts are possible with the strongest storms, but widespread wetting
rainfall is not expected, and the potential for lightning activity
amid very receptive fuels continues to merit an isolated
dry-thunderstorm delineation across this area. Gusty outflow winds may
become rather widespread by early evening across the area as well.
..Dean.. 05/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 16 May 2022 06:22:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122
AM CDT Mon May 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WEST INTO NORTHWEST TX...
...Synopsis...
A weak upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the
western CONUS on Tuesday, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs move
from the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. A surface low
is forecast to deepen across southeast CO, with a dryline expected to
extend southward across portions of west TX.
...Parts of NM/west TX into the southern High Plains...
While the primary Pacific cold front/dryline may remain over west TX
during the afternoon, strong heating/mixing ahead of this feature will
result in the development of a secondary dryline further east from
southwest OK into central TX. The strongest low-level flow is expected
immediately to the west of this secondary dryline, associated with a
rather strong low-level jet. Areas from the TX South Plains into the
Big Country and Permian Basin may see sustained winds of 20-25 mph as
RH drops below 15%, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions.
Near-critical conditions may extend into portions of southeast NM,
though low-level flow is currently expected to be somewhat weaker in
this area.
In addition to the critical wind/RH threat, isolated high-based
thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern High
Plains during the late afternoon/evening, with very limited rainfall
potential, so an isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been included for
parts of this region.
..Dean.. 05/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 16 May 2022 06:23:27 +0000
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