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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.05.22 10:34z 355 Lines 16006 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-MAY.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 15 May 2022
09:08:01 +0000 Sun, 15 May 2022 09:08:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun May 15 09:08:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sun May 15 09:08:01 UTC 2022. Sun, 15
May 2022 09:07:06 +0000
SPC MD 763 MD 0763 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NE INTO NORTHERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0763 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338
AM CDT Sun May 15 2022
Areas affected...parts of southern NE into northern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 150838Z - 151015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic near-severe hail is possible early this morning
across parts of southern NE into northern KS.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
will continue to shift southeast across parts of southern NE into
northern KS the next couple of hours. This activity is elevated above
a near-surface stable layer and a warm nose around 850 mb.
Nevertheless, effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will aid in at
least periodic storm organization amid weak MUCAPE and steep midlevel
lapse rates. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop through
the early morning hours across southern NE and shift south/southeast
into KS. These storms may periodically produce near-severe hail over
the next few hours. As storms continue southward across KS toward 12z,
some intensification and better organization may occur as convection
encounters richer boundary-layer moisture and increasing instability.
However, the overall severe threat should remain limited over the next
few hours by modest shear and instability, and a watch is not expected
at this time.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40819775 40579689 40309633 40049613 39799611 39549623
39439646 39459663 39439726 39459816 39769892 39959913
40349966 40659984 40869980 40879958 40809816 40819775
Read more
Sun, 15 May 2022 08:40:05 +0000
SPC May 15, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CDT Sun May 15 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and
southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley
today. Scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
primary threats, with the greatest risk expected from northeast
Oklahoma and southeast Kansas into the Ozarks. Isolated strong to
severe storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps large hail are also
possible in parts of the Northwest.
...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move from the central Plains
southeastward through the mid MS Valley during the day today, and
eventually into the lower Great Lakes late tonight. A weak surface low
will persist over OK into the evening, as a cold front moves southward
through the central Plains, Ozark Plateau, and Midwest. Further west,
a midlevel shortwave trough will move from the interior Northwest
toward the Northern Rockies.
...Central/southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
A substantial severe threat may evolve across parts of eastern KS/OK
into the Ozark Plateau, though considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the evolution of early-day convection as it spreads
southeastward through the day.
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period this
morning across northern KS into far southern NE. Hail and perhaps
strong wind gusts will be possible with this initial activity. This
convection may evolve into an MCS that will move southeastward in
conjunction with the approaching shortwave trough and associated the
cold front. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates and moderate-to-strong
buoyancy will favor intensification of ongoing convection into the
afternoon, along with the potential for somewhat more discrete
development further west along the cold front into a larger portion of
central/eastern OK.
Deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient for organized storm
structures as northwesterly midlevel flow increases through the day.
Any well-organized MCS that can evolve and move through the warm
sector from the late morning into the afternoon could produce a swath
of damaging wind gusts, given the very favorable thermodynamic
profiles in place. A conditional threat for very large hail and
perhaps a tornado or two will also be present with any sustained
semi-discrete cells that may develop along the convective outflow
and/or the primary cold front. Wind and/or hail probabilities may need
to be increased in subsequent outlooks, depending on shorter-term
observational and guidance trends.
...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley...
The potential for early-day MCS development to the west leads to some
uncertainty regarding the severe threat across portions of the mid MS
Valley into the OH Valley during the afternoon and evening. However,
moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front and increasing
deep-layer shear will support strong thunderstorm development from
eastern MO into southern IL during the afternoon, potentially
spreading eastward toward the OH Valley by evening. Large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threats in
this area.
...Northwest...
In advance of the approaching shortwave trough, convection is expected
to develop late this afternoon across parts of southeast WA and
northeast OR. Buoyancy is expected to be modest at best (MLCAPE
generally 500 J/kg or less), but effective shear of 40-50 kt will
support a couple of organized clusters and/or supercells which could
pose an isolated severe wind/hail risk. Some severe threat will spread
into portions of ID and perhaps western MT before a general weakening
trend later tonight.
...Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
Diurnal heating of a relatively moist environment will promote
scattered thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. Weak
shear and modest mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity, but
a few stronger wind gusts and marginally severe hail may occur.
..Dean/Bentley.. 05/15/2022
Read more
Sun, 15 May 2022 06:03:12 +0000
SPC May 15, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM
CDT Sun May 15 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NEW YORK SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are expected Monday from central New York/western
New England southward into the Southeast. Locally damaging winds and
some hail will be the primary severe risks, though a tornado or two
will also be possible during the afternoon.
...Central New York and western New England southward to the
Southeast... A vigorous mid-level trough is progged to shift eastward
across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast/Mid Atlantic region
Monday, acquiring increasing negative tilt with time. Very strong
westerly/cyclonic flow will accompany this system, which will
overspread the warm sector of a sharp cold front that will shift east
of the Appalachians through midday/early afternoon.
As the seasonably moist pre-frontal boundary layer heats through the
afternoon, destabilization will fuel development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. Given the aforementioned strong flow aloft,
storms will quickly organize, some growing into fast-moving clusters.
Along with risk for hail, damaging winds should be become increasingly
widespread through the afternoon.
Additionally, low-level southerly/south-southeasterly flow is
forecast, particularly from portions of Virginia northward into New
York. Resulting enhancement to the low-level shear suggests potential
for a couple of tornadoes, as well.
Storms/severe risk will continue through the afternoon and into the
evening, until the front nears/clears the coast. Risk will diminish
with southward extent from the Carolinas southward, where flow aloft
will be a bit weaker. Still, locally strong wind gusts may occur as
far south as Georgia during peak afternoon convective intensity.
..Goss.. 05/15/2022
Read more
Sun, 15 May 2022 06:13:50 +0000
SPC May 15, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM
CDT Sun May 15 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Locally severe storms are expected across potions of the central
Plains/Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity...
West-northwesterly flow aloft is progged across much of the U.S.
Tuesday, south of a trio of upper lows over Canada. This westerly
flow will advect an elevated mixed layer across the central Plains,
with a cap effectively suppressing most convective potential south of
central Kansas.
However, with afternoon heating/mixing, isolated storm development
will be possible over portions of northern Kansas and into Nebraska,
in the vicinity of a weak warm front. Other storms are expected to
develop within low-level northeasterly upslope flow into the central
High Plains.
With moderate westerly flow aloft, expect storms to organize locally.
While weak low-level flow should limit tornado potential, hail, along
with potential for a few stronger wind gusts will exist.
After dark, as a low-level jet re-intensifies, storms should increase
in coverage, spreading east-southeastward into parts of Iowa and
Missouri. Risk for hail and locally strong gusts may continue into
the overnight hours.
..Goss.. 05/15/2022
Read more
Sun, 15 May 2022 07:33:06 +0000
SPC May 15, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405
AM CDT Sun May 15 2022
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Global models appear to be in reasonably good agreement through Day 6
across the U.S., moving a mid-level trough out of the Gulf of Alaska
and into/across the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Wednesday, and then
eastward into the northern Plains Day 5/Thursday, and then the Upper
Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and into Ontario Day 6/Friday.
As the upper system advances, a cold front is forecast to emerge from
the northern Rockies into/across the northern and eventually the
central Plains. Near this front and the evolving surface low, focused
ascent across the north-central States/Upper Mississippi Valley region
will likely result in afternoon/evening severe storms. Along with
potential for large hail and damaging winds, a few tornadoes are also
expected, given flow expected to veer favorably through the lower half
of the troposphere, while increasing in magnitude with height,
suggesting shear favorable for supercells.
Some severe risk may also evolve eastward across the Midwest/Ohio
Valley region, as a weak mid-level disturbance moves through westerly
flow aloft, near a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone. However, with
the north-south positioning of this boundary uncertain, and differing
rather substantially in various models, will not highlight this more
uncertain risk with a 15% area at this time.
Steady advance of the upper trough, and associated cold front, will
continue Day 6, with the boundary forecast to extend from the Upper
Great Lakes to the southern Plains through the afternoon. Once again,
a favorably moist/destabilizing warm sector will lead to severe-storm
development near and ahead of the front, as the eastern fringe of
stronger southwesterlies aloft spread atop the frontal zone, yield
shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms. Large hail and
damaging winds would appear to be the primary risks, along with some
potential for tornadoes.
As model solutions deviate Day 7, mainly with respect to the portion
of the trough trailing southward out of eastern Canada into the U.S.,
convective evolution becomes more uncertain, precluding any areal
highlights through the end of the period.
Read more
Sun, 15 May 2022 09:07:56 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145
AM CDT Sun May 15 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will translate eastward across the Southwest today.
A very dry airmass is in place across the Southwest with single digit
dewpoints across most of the region. However, winds will be light
beneath this ridge which should subdue fire weather concerns for most
of the Southwest. A cold front will move southward across the Plains
Sunday afternoon with strong winds expected in the wake of this front.
Some of these strong northeasterly winds may overlap regions with low
relative humidity in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southwest
Kansas and far southwest Colorado. Some critical conditions may occur
across the northwest Texas Panhandle and the western Oklahoma
Panhandle. However, the area with the best chance for 3 or more hours
of these conditions will be very isolated. Therefore, locally critical
conditions are possible, but more widespread critical conditions are
not expected.
..Bentley.. 05/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 15 May 2022 06:46:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153
AM CDT Sun May 15 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will start to weaken on Monday as a series of weak
shortwave troughs move through the central Rockies. As a result, weak
lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in eastern Colorado. This
strengthening pressure gradient, combined with some deeper mixing
bringing stronger mid-level flow to the surface, should lead to 15 to
25 mph winds across portions of the Southwest and southern/central
High Plains. Some critical conditions appear likely, but a more
confined region where 20+ mph winds are anticipated is not clear at
this time.
A dryline will be in place across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico on Monday which will separate single digit relative humidity to
the west from 20 to 25 percent relative humidity to the east.
Thunderstorms are likely along this dryline Monday afternoon in an
airmass with PWAT values at or below 0.8 inches. Therefore, any storms
which form will likely be drier. In addition, fuels in this region are
exceptionally dry which will further exacerbate fire weather concerns
from any dry thunderstorms.
..Bentley.. 05/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 15 May 2022 06:54:27 +0000
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