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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.05.22 19:00z 327 Lines 15722 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7023_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-MAY22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220517/1830Z 7023@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 17 May 2022
08:59:02 +0000 Tue, 17 May 2022 08:59:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue May 17 08:59:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Tue May 17 08:59:02 UTC 2022.
Tue, 17 May 2022 08:58:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue May 17 08:59:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May
17 08:59:02 UTC 2022. Tue, 17 May 2022 08:58:05 +0000
SPC May 17, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Tue May 17 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of
the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley this afternoon
through tonight. Large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes are
expected.
...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A belt of
west-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across
the north-central United States. A subtle shortwave trough is
forecast to move east-southeastward across the central and northern
Plains. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will
advect northward across the eastern half of Kansas and into eastern
Nebraska. By afternoon, a corridor of moderate to strong instability
is expected to develop, where MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 2000
to 4000 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to
first initiate near the northern edge of the instability axis in
southeast South Dakota and northeast Nebraska during the afternoon.
These storms are expected to gradually increase in coverage, moving
southeastward across eastern Nebraska during the late afternoon and
early evening. MCS development appears likely with the complex of
storms reaching northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri during the
early to mid evening.
Forecast soundings from the 4 Km NAM along the track of the MCS in
southeast Nebraska at 00Z have MLCAPE approaching 3500 J/kg. 0-6 km
shear near 35 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km.
This environment should be favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the
strongest of updrafts. As the low-level jet increases during the
late afternoon and early evening, forecast soundings along the track
of the developing MCS, increase 0-3 storm relative helicities into
the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range. This should be favorable for tornadoes,
mainly with supercells. However, uncertainty does exist concerning
the favored storm mode. The MCS could quickly take a linear form.
This would make the wind damage threat greater than the tornado
threat. This could be especially true as the MCS matures when
discrete storms may become less likely. By mid to late evening,
the MCS should become well-developed, moving southeastward into
the area near Kansas City. Wind damage, large hail and a tornado
threat appears likely. The severe threat could continue into the
overnight period across the Ozarks and into southeast Kansas.
...Central High Plains... West-northwest mid-level flow will
be in place across the central and northern High Plains today,
as a subtle shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across the
region. The western edge of a relatively moist airmass is forecast
to be in western Nebraska and western Kansas by afternoon, where
moderate instability is forecast to develop. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to initiate in parts of southeast Wyoming,
western Nebraska, northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas
during the mid to late afternoon. The stronger of these storms may
persist into the early to mid evening. By 00Z, model forecasts have
moderate instability located across much of western Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear is also forecast
across this area, mainly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This
will support isolated severe storms capable of large hail. Also,
steep lapse rates below 700 mb could aid downdraft acceleration,
making a wind-damage threat possible. The greatest severe threat
could occur during the early to mid evening with storms that form
further to east in south-central Nebraska, where instability is
forecast to be much stronger.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 05/17/2022
Read more
Tue, 17 May 2022 06:03:12 +0000
SPC May 17, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CDT Tue May 17 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...AND FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday, especially across parts of the Lower Ohio Valley and
the Colorado Front Range into the south-central High Plains.
...Synopsis... A broad zone of west-northwesterly flow aloft
is expected to cover the northern two-thirds of the CONUS on
Wednesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the OH Valley into portions of the Mid Atlantic, while another
shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains
and upper Great Lakes regions. One weak surface low may move along
a front across the OH Valley, while another weak surface low is
forecast to develop over the southern Plains.
...Mid MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley... Convection will likely
be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions
of the lower OH Valley, in association with the eastward-moving
shortwave trough. Diurnal destabilization may support some
strengthening of morning convection as it moves eastward, and
also redevelopment in the wake of the early-day storms along a
weak surface boundary. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow
will support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection,
and the strongest storms will pose a threat of hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of early-day
convection and the coverage of redevelopment in its wake precludes
higher severe probabilities at this time.
...CO Front Range into the south-central High Plains... Modest
low-level moisture return within a weak upslope-flow regime will
support weak-to-moderate destabilization from the CO Front Range
into parts of the south-central High Plains by late afternoon.
Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the higher terrain
and spread eastward with time into the south-central High Plains,
with deep-layer shear sufficient to support multicell clusters and
perhaps a couple of supercells, with an attendant risk of hail and
locally severe gusts.
...Central/northern MN into northwest WI... Low-level moisture is
expected to remain rather limited across Minnesota in advance of a
cold front. However, steep midlevel lapse rates, cool temperatures
aloft, and increasing ascent associated with an approaching shortwave
trough will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon. Small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though
uncertainty regarding the magnitude of buoyancy precludes severe
probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 05/17/2022
Read more
Tue, 17 May 2022 06:04:57 +0000
SPC May 17, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229
AM CDT Tue May 17 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE/SD
INTO IA...SOUTHERN MN...AND MUCH OF WI...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night over portions of the central Great
Plains and upper Midwest. At this time, large hail and damaging
wind gusts are expected to be the primary threats.
...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is
forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and northern Great
Plains on Thursday, in conjunction with a strong upper-level jet
and southeastward-moving cold front. A surface low initially over
southern AB/SK will move slowly southeastward during the day, while
another low is forecast to rapidly deepen along the front and move
from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest.
...Central Plains into the upper Midwest... Richer low-level
moisture is expected to spread rapidly toward the central
Plains/upper Midwest during the day on Thursday, in conjunction with
a northward-moving warm front. Thunderstorm development is possible
by late afternoon along the cold front, with storm coverage likely
to increase into the evening as moisture return continues along/ahead
of the front and a low-level jet strengthens across the region.
Strengthening deep-layer shear will support organized clusters and
perhaps a few supercells as storms mature, resulting in a threat of
large hail and damaging wind gusts into Thursday evening. Any tornado
threat will be dependent on the timing and magnitude of low-level
moisture return, which remain somewhat uncertain at this time.
...OH Valley into parts of the Mid Atlantic... The warm front is
expected to move slowly northward during the day from portions of the
OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic, in the wake of potential early-day
convection. While large-scale ascent is currently expected to remain
rather weak during the afternoon/evening, isolated thunderstorm
development will be possible in the vicinity of the front. Should
robust development occur, moderate instability and sufficient
deep-layer shear will support some threat of hail and damaging
wind gusts with the strongest storms, though uncertainty remains
too great at this time for the introduction of severe probabilities.
..Dean.. 05/17/2022
Read more
Tue, 17 May 2022 07:32:05 +0000
SPC May 17, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION... The primary severe thunderstorm threat in
the extended range will be associated with a positively tilted
mid/upper-level trough and a seasonably strong cold front, which will
move eastward across parts of the southern and eastern CONUS this
weekend. At this time, the greatest confidence in an organized severe
thunderstorm threat is on D4/Friday, with increasing predictability
concerns into the weekend.
...D4/Friday: Parts of the Great Lakes into the Southern Plains...
Favorable low-level moisture and instability along/ahead of the
cold front, in conjunction with moderate-to-strong deep-layer
flow/shear associated with the broad upper trough, will support a
severe thunderstorm threat Friday from parts of the Great Lakes
through the Midwest/Ohio Valley, and potentially into the Ozark
Plateau and southern Plains.
...D5/Saturday: Lower Great Lakes/Northeast into the TN/lower
MS Valleys... As the cold front pushes eastward, some severe
thunderstorm threat is possible on Saturday from parts of the lower
Great Lakes and Northeast into the TN and lower MS Valleys. Some
of the latest guidance, including ECMWF deterministic and ensemble
forecasts, has trended significantly slower with the cold front,
and also somewhat weaker and more positively tilted with the upper
trough. Probabilities may eventually be reintroduced for Saturday
once there is greater confidence in the frontal position, but the
tendency for stronger mid/upper-level flow to become displaced north
of the front may tend to limit the magnitude of the severe threat.
...D6/Sunday: New England into the Mid Atlantic... Predictability
concerns regarding the timing/location of the cold front
continue into Sunday. Some severe threat could evolve on Sunday
from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic, if sufficient
heating/destabilization can occur ahead of the front. Confidence is
too low to delineate any 15% areas for D6/Sunday at this time.
Read more
Tue, 17 May 2022 08:58:59 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse
the Southwest today. This will lead to increasing mid-level flow
across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. In addition, lee
cyclogenesis is expected which will tighten the surface pressure
gradient across the Southwest and southern High Plains. As a result,
breezy conditions will develop amid 5 to 13 percent relative
humidity. At this time, the strongest winds are forecast east of
the dryline beneath a strengthening low-level jet. A dry environment
with deep mixing is expected immediately east of the dryline which
should allow some of this stronger flow to mix to the surface.
In addition, some dry and breezy conditions are expected in
northern and northeastern Montana. While fuels remain mostly
unreceptive across Montana, ERC values are nearing or exceeding the
90th percentile in portions of north-central Montana. Therefore,
a small elevated delineation has been added across this area for
this small region of more favorable fuels.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the vicinity of a dryline
across west Texas into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this afternoon.
These storms will develop in an airmass with PWAT around 0.6 to
0.75 inches. Therefore, these storms should be drier, especially
initially, with the threat for lightning induced fire starts.
..Bentley.. 05/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 17 May 2022 06:38:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Weak high pressure will build into the Southwest
on Wednesday with weak flow aloft. This should keep wind concerns
mostly muted across the region. Dry and breezy conditions are
possible across portions of southern and southeast Wyoming, but
fuels are not that dry in this region.
Some dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
Colorado and northeast New Mexico on Wednesday. Most CAM guidance
shows isolated to scattered storms developing on the higher terrain
before moving eastward in an environment with PWAT around 0.6
inches. Therefore, these storms should be dry and may result in
new fire starts.
..Bentley.. 05/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 17 May 2022 06:39:13 +0000
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