| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 16.04.19 07:03z 175 Lines 9588 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21546_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 16 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190416/0700Z 21546@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154
PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the
U.S. Tuesday.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will translate southeastward
from coastal CA toward the Four Corners vicinity today. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West toward
the central/southern Rockies as the upper trough translates
eastward. Meager instability and boundary layer moisture and weak
shear will preclude any severe threat.
Further east, moisture will stream northward beneath a central U.S.
upper ridge. Though weak lee cyclogenesis is expected as the
Plains ridge begins to migrate eastward ahead of the western
trough, a stout capping inversion in the 700-850 mb layer will
mostly suppress convection for much of the period. Strong warm
advection will continue into this evening and the overnight hours,
and isolated elevated storms are possible across parts of eastern
CO/WY into parts of northwest KS, NE and the mid-MO Valley vicinity
as a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet develops. Modest shear
and weak elevated instability should preclude severe convection,
though some small hail could occur with the strongest cells,
especially from northeast CO/far eastern WY into southwest NE and
northwest KS where steeper lapse rates will exist.
Some guidance suggests there could be a very brief window of
opportunity for an elevated storm to produce marginally severe
hail across northeast CO and/or adjacent portions of far southwest
NE/northwest KS as a weak lead shortwave impulse migrates across
the Rockies around 00z. This signal is inconsistent and potential
appears too limited in space/time to include any marginally severe
hail probabilities at this time.
..Leitman/Bentley.. 04/16/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257
AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms are forecast Wednesday afternoon
and evening, from the Iowa vicinity south-southwest into the
southern Plains.
...Synopsis... Southern-stream shortwave trough will likely begin
the period over the AZ/NM with an associated jet streak through its
base from southern CA through northern Mexico and into southwest
TX. Gradual eastward progression of this system is anticipated
throughout the day with a coincident eastward spreading of the
enhanced flow aloft. By the end of the period (12Z Thursday),
this strong flow aloft will eventually extend from deep south TX
through the mid MS Valley.
A subtle antecedent shortwave trough is expected late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday morning across central Plains. This will
contribute to the development and northeastward progression of a
surface low expected to be centered near the central NE/KS border
at 12Z Wednesday. As the day progresses, this low will continue
northeastward while a secondary low develops over the TX Panhandle.
Triple points near these two lows as well as the surface trough
between them and the dryline extending from the southernmost low
will all provide a focus for convective initiation during the
afternoon. These boundaries will remain important for convective
evolution through the remainder of the evening and overnight as
the overall system progresses eastward. Given the warm, moist,
and unstable air mass expected to be in place, many of these storms
will likely be severe. Each area is discussed in more detail below.
...Southern Plains... A moist air mass will already be in place
across the region beneath a well-developed EML. Resultant capping
should preclude thunderstorm development across the region
until the afternoon when the combination of daytime heating,
large-scale ascent, boundary-layer mixing and surface convergence
act to overcome the convective inhibition. Narrowing down the best
location for initial development is difficult given the prevalence of
surface boundaries. Initiation is also possible within the open warm
sector. Once convective initiation occurs, quick and strong updraft
development is anticipated, with the potential for very large hail
(i.e. greater than 2" in diameter). Increasing thunderstorm coverage
is expected into the evening as large-scale ascent strengthens and
the entire system shifts eastward.
Primary severe threat is large hail. A tornado threat exists,
but weakness in the flow between 850 and 700 mb (resulting from
the preceding shortwave trough and overall positive tilt of the
upper trough) cast some doubt towards the robustness of low-level
mesocyclone organization. Damaging wind gusts are also likely,
particularly later in the period as a convective line organizes
along the front.
...IA and vicinity... This area will be displaced north of the
strongest forcing for ascent but boundary-layer mixing coupled
with moisture advection and convergence along the front is still
expected to promote thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be
modest but steep lapse rates will still result in strong updrafts,
with large hail as the primary severe threat.
...Central/Eastern KS...Central/Southern MO... Increasing
large-scale ascent coupled with surface convergence will likely
result in thunderstorm initiation along the front. Front-parallel
orientation of the vertical shear vectors coupled with a surging
cold front cast some doubt to updraft persistence/maintenance and
resulting coverage of any severe storms. Even so, steep lapse rates
and favorable low-level moisture, will likely support occasional
updrafts strong enough to support a severe risk. Primary threat is
large hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% - Enhanced Wind:
30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced
..Mosier.. 04/16/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will be amplifying across
the western CONUS during the day today. Ahead of this trough,
lee cyclogenesis will be occurring in southeast Colorado. This
will lead to a strengthening surface pressure gradient across the
southern High Plains. In addition, moderate mid-level wind speeds may
enhance the low-level winds through deep vertical mixing. Winds are
expected to be 20 to 25 mph across much of this area with relative
humidity around 10 to 15 percent. However, it is possible winds
could be stronger and relative humidity lower based on the trends
Monday afternoon. Areas in northeast New Mexico and the western
Texas Panhandle had single digit relative humidity and wind speeds
over 30 mph. Lee troughing and mid-level winds are expected to be
stronger this afternoon than Monday which would suggest that wind
speeds may exceed current forecast.
A critical fire weather area was added for much of the southern
High Plains to cover this threat. The eastern edge of the threat
will be a sharp gradient where the dryline sets up.
..Bentley.. 04/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will be moving
across southwest Texas on Wednesday. At the surface, a surface
low is expected to strengthen in the eastern Texas Panhandle. This
will lead to strong winds across most of West Texas and the Trans
Pecos. Increasing low-level moisture and cooling temperatures will
limit fire weather concerns except for the Trans Pecos and Big Bend
regions. This is where an elevated area has been introduced. In
the northern portion of this elevated risk, wind speeds will
be stronger, but relative humidity could remain above elevated
threshold. In the southern portion of the elevated, wind speeds
are expected to be lighter, but the relative humidity is expected
to be much lower. There may be locally critical conditions near the
Texas/Mexico border, but there is still some uncertainty regarding
winds and low-level moisture and the area where critical conditions
are possible is quite small. Therefore, no critical area has been
introduced at this time.
..Bentley.. 04/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
You never know how many friends you have until you rent a house on the beach.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Soporte tecnico las 24hs - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
- Servidores / empresas / Desktop
* Mantenimiento * Optimizacion * Soluciones
* Seguridad - Proteccion
--------------------------- Abono mensual - Consulte
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
