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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.05.22 18:50z 433 Lines 19599 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-MAY22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220519/1831Z 7105@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 19 May 2022
09:46:02 +0000 Thu, 19 May 2022 09:46:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 WW 242 SEVERE TSTM KS OK
190250Z - 191000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Wed
May 18 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 950 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large
hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A squall line will move west to east across the watch
area posing a risk for mainly severe gusts and wind damage overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of Alva OK
to 15 miles north northeast of Tulsa OK. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 241...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion
vector 27035.
...Smith/Guyer
Read more
Thu, 19 May 2022 09:35:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 Status Reports WW 0242
Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MKO TO
25 WNW BVO TO 15 SE ICT.
..LEITMAN..05/19/22
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC019-035-191040-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY
OKC113-143-147-191040-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
OSAGE TULSA WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Thu, 19 May 2022 09:35:04 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu May 19 09:46:06 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May
19 09:46:06 UTC 2022. Thu, 19 May 2022 09:46:05 +0000
SPC May 19, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103
AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
the Upper Midwest and mid Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening,
with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes possible. A severe threat
will also develop this afternoon into early evening from parts of
the mid Mississippi Valley east-southeastward into the Carolinas.
...Upper Midwest... An upper-level low will move eastward across
southern Saskatchewan today as west-southwesterly mid-level flow
remains over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the Dakotas as a low
deepens ahead of the front. A warm front attendant to the low will
advance northward across southern Minnesota. Surface dewpoints along
and south of the front will be in the 60s F, which will result in
moderate instability by afternoon across much of the moist sector.
Surface-based thunderstorms are most likely to develop along
the warm front during the afternoon from southeastern Minnesota
east-southeastward into western and central Wisconsin. As the cold
front advances southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley during
the early evening, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand
southwestward across much of Iowa into far eastern Nebraska. MCS
development appears likely across parts of the Upper Midwest during
the evening into the overnight period.
RAP forecast soundings at 21Z, from the warm front in southeast
Minnesota southwestward across the moist sector into northern and
central Iowa, show an impressive thermodynamic environment. MLCAPE
is forecast to be in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This combined with 0-6 km shear around
50 knot will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones
of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
intense supercells. By late afternoon, 0-3 storm relative helicity
along this same corridor is forecast to be in the 350 to 450 m2/s2
range. Hodographs are long and curved suggesting that tornadoes
will be likely with the more intense supercells. A strong tornado
or two will be possible along the western edge of the low-level
jet during the late afternoon and early evening from far western
Wisconsin into west-central Iowa. Wind damage will also be possible
with the stronger cells, especially if an MCS can become organized
during the evening.
...Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Zonal westerly mid-level flow will be in place today from the central
Plains eastward to the Appalachians. At low-levels, southerly flow
will advect moisture northward into the mid Mississippi Valley
and southern Appalachians. Surface dewpoints should reach the
mid 60s to lower 70s F, which will result in moderate to strong
destabilization by afternoon along a corridor from central Missouri
east-southeastward into southern Illinois, western/southern Kentucky
and into the Carolinas. Although deep-layer shear is forecast
to remain below 35 knots across much of this corridor, MLCAPE in
the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range, along with 0-3 km lapse rates near
7.5 C/km will be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage will
be possible during the late afternoon as low-level lapse rates
become steepest. The most favorable combination of instability and
deep-layer shear is forecast across southern Illinois and western
Kentucky, where isolated supercells will also be possible. As
low-level flow increases during the late afternoon and early evening,
isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado or two will may occur
with any cell that can become dominant. The wind damage and hail
threat should persist into the early to mid evening, especially,
if a cold pool can become organized.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 05/19/2022
Read more
Thu, 19 May 2022 06:07:14 +0000
SPC May 19, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon
and evening across lower Michigan, perhaps extending into parts
of the Midwest. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible across
parts of the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threats.
...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough is forecast to
move eastward from the central/northern Great Plains toward the
Great Lakes region on Friday. A deep surface low will move from the
upper Great Lakes toward the southern part of Hudson Bay, while an
attendant cold front will move across parts of the Midwest, Ozark
Plateau, and southern Plains. Further southwest, a low-amplitude
upper-level trough will move toward southwest/central TX by Friday
evening. A surface low may develop along the front across southwest
OK/northwest TX, with a dryline extending southward across parts
of west/central TX.
...Parts of the Great Lakes into the Mid MS Valley... Considerable
uncertainty remains regarding the severe potential associated
with the cold front from parts of the Great Lakes into the mid MS
Valley. Deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient for organized
convection. A rather strong and extensive EML will support moderate
to locally strong buoyancy by late afternoon along/ahead of the
front, but may also tend to suppress convection in the absence of
favorable large-scale ascent across the warm sector. There is also
some uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day convection
potentially spreading eastward out of the upper Midwest.
The most favorable area for surface-based development may be across
lower MI, in closer proximity to the departing shortwave trough and
surface low. A couple of organized cells/clusters will be possible in
that area during the late afternoon/evening, with a threat of hail
and damaging wind gusts. Reintensification of morning convection,
or development along any remnant outflow, also appears most likely
to occur over lower MI, if any of those scenarios materialize.
Further southwest over parts of IL/IN/MO, surface-based development
cannot be ruled out, but appears increasingly unlikely due to strong
capping. Elevated convection will likely develop north of the front
across this region Friday night, which could pose an isolated hail
risk, given the steep midlevel lapse rates and rather strong midlevel
flow that will be in place.
...Southern Plains... Strong instability is expected to be in place
south of the cold front and east of the dryline across parts of
TX/OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible near
the front/dryline intersection, and southward down the dryline,
as MLCINH weakens with strong diurnal heating. Modest midlevel flow
will support effective shear of 25-35 kt, sufficient for organized
multicells and perhaps a supercell or two. Large hail may be the
primary initial threat, though weak anvil-level flow may result in
a quick transition to outflow-dominant clusters, with an associated
severe-wind risk.
...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Moderate buoyancy is expected
to develop by afternoon across parts of the Mid Atlantic into parts
of PA and upstate NY. The primary large-scale ascent associated
with the upper trough should remain well northwest of these areas,
but with substantial upstream convection expected during the
D1/Thursday period, it is possible that one or more MCVs will move
into portions of this region on Friday, posing some risk of strong
thunderstorm development. Probabilities may eventually be needed
for portions of this region if confidence in an MCV-related severe
scenario increases.
..Dean.. 05/19/2022
Read more
Thu, 19 May 2022 06:08:57 +0000
SPC May 19, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229
AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday
afternoon and evening from northern New England southwestward into
the southern Plains.
...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough initially over
the northern Plains Saturday morning is forecast to move eastward
toward the Great Lakes region though the day. A weak surface low
may develop along a slow-moving cold front and move from parts of
the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes region. A
weak surface low may also persist or develop near the front/dryline
intersection across TX.
...OH Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected near and north of the slow-moving cold
front, especially Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The
strongest deep-layer flow/shear is expected to generally remain
to the cool side of the boundary, though effective shear, in
conjunction with moderate instability, may be sufficient to support
a few organized cells/clusters, posing a threat of isolated hail
and perhaps localized damaging gusts. While most convection will
likely be somewhat elevated north of the front, some potential
for surface-based convection may evolve near any frontal wave that
develops, and also toward the ArkLaTex into the central/eastern TX,
where somewhat stronger heating is possible ahead of the front and
dryline. If confidence increases in surface-based development across
some portion of the broad Marginal Risk, higher severe probabilities
may be needed.
...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England... Moderate
instability may develop in advance of a weak cold front that
will move into part of the lower Great Lakes into northern New
England. Coverage of storms remains somewhat uncertain across
this region, but at least isolated development appears possible.
Deep-layer flow/shear will be sufficient for a few stronger storms
capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail during
the afternoon and evening.
..Dean.. 05/19/2022
Read more
Thu, 19 May 2022 07:32:15 +0000
SPC May 19, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION... An upper trough and associated surface low are
forecast to move from the Great Lakes into parts of Quebec on
D4/Sunday, as a cold front moves through the lower Great Lakes
into portions of New England. Another upper trough is forecast
to become established over the central CONUS by D5/Monday, though
instability may be slow to recover across the Plains, in the wake
of an earlier cold frontal passage.
Some severe thunderstorm potential is evident over parts of the
lower Great Lakes into northern New England on D4/Sunday, in
association with the cold front. At this time, severe potential
appears relatively low on D5/Monday. Potential may gradually
increase later next week as the upper trough moves eastward,
but predictability regarding the synoptic pattern and low-level
moisture return decreases substantially with time.
...D4/Sunday: Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Heating and moistening in advance of the cold front should allow
for moderate destabilization from parts of the lower Great Lakes
into northern New England. Scattered thunderstorm development
is possible along/ahead of the front by afternoon, with modestly
enhanced low/mid-level flow supporting organized storm clusters
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail as the front moves eastward
into Sunday evening.
Read more
Thu, 19 May 2022 09:01:55 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis... Strong lee cyclogenesis will occur today across
the central Plains as a 100+ knot mid-level jet crosses the
Inter-Mountain west and emerges over the Plains. The pressure
field from this lee cyclone will be expansive and result in windy
conditions across much of the western CONUS.
...Southwest into the southern/central High Plains... The pressure
gradient will tighten across the Southwestern US today as a strong
cyclone develops in the Plains. This will result in 20 to 25 mph
winds from southern Nevada across the Southwest and into central
Nebraska amid single digit relative humidity. Fuels are very dry
across this region with numerous large fires ongoing. Therefore,
rapid fire spread is possible on any existing fires and from any
new fire starts.
...Eastern Montana and far western North Dakota... Strong low-level
flow will develop across eastern Montana today as a surface low
develops in northern North Dakota. Sustained winds above 30 mph are
possible with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent. Fuels in this
area are green, but there has not been any precipitation for over
a week. Therefore, some of the finer fuels have started to cure,
and at least some large fire threat will exist in these pockets of
drier fuels.
...Northern Sacramento Valley... Strong northerly winds will
develop this afternoon within the Sacramento Valley and adjacent
foothills. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent
relative humidity is expected.
...Northern Lower Michigan.... Drier conditions are expected in
northern Lower Michigan today (20 to 30 percent relative humidity)
where fuels are critically dry. However, winds are expected to
remain around 10 mph which precludes the need for an Elevated
delineation.
...Portions of the Southeast... Relative humidity is expected to
drop to 25 to 35 percent across much of the Southeast this afternoon
during peak heating. Fuels are critically dry with ERC values above
the 90th percentile. Some increase in initial attack is possible,
but winds should remain too light (~10 mph) to support an Elevated
delineation.
..Bentley.. 05/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 19 May 2022 05:29:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to deepen across West
Texas Friday afternoon. This will tighten the pressure gradient
and result in windy conditions across the Southwest. In addition,
stronger mid-level flow will also overspread the dry airmass across
the Southwest. Deep mixing is expected which should bring some of
this stronger flow to the surface. Therefore, sustained winds of 20
to 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits.
Northerly flow will develop in the northern Sacramento Valley and
adjacent foothills with sustained surface winds of 15 to 25 mph
and relative humidity in the upper teens. Therefore, an Elevated
delineation is warranted, particularly for the foothills where
fuels have started to cure.
..Bentley.. 05/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 19 May 2022 05:30:14 +0000
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