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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.05.22 18:48z 398 Lines 20051 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7143_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-MAY22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<GB7CIP<EI2GYB<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220520/1830Z 7143@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 20 May 2022
09:00:02 +0000 Fri, 20 May 2022 09:00:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri May 20 09:00:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Fri May 20 09:00:02 UTC 2022.
Fri, 20 May 2022 08:59:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri May 20 09:00:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May
20 09:00:02 UTC 2022. Fri, 20 May 2022 08:59:04 +0000
SPC May 20, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248
AM CDT Fri May 20 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...PENNSYLVANIA...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
lower Michigan, northern Middle Atlantic, and a small part of the
southern Plains.
...Northern Middle Atlantic...
Long-lived MCS that developed over northwestern OK Wednesday night
has progressed across southern MO into southern IN early this
morning. An MCV is embedded in the northwestern portion of this
complex just west of BMG. Given the longevity and strength of this
feature, there is increasing confidence for robust convection later
today across the northern Middle Atlantic. By late morning this
feature should be located over western PA. Associated convection
will likely be ongoing at daybreak over the upper OH Valley, with
updraft intensification expected along the leading edge of this
complex by 18z over central PA. Subsequent movement should allow
this activity to spread toward western NJ before weakening as it
encounters increasingly hostile air mass. Damaging winds/hail are
the primary risks.
...Lower Michigan...
Seasonally strong belt of southwesterly flow aloft will extend
across the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region as
the primary upper trough holds farther west across the High Plains
into the central Rockies. This flow regime will allow for a slow
eastward progression of the surface front, likely extending from
the eastern UP of MI into northern IL by early afternoon. In the
absence of meaningful height falls, boundary-layer heating will
prove instrumental in convective development later today. Latest
model guidance suggests modest surface heating will be noted
across lower MI ahead of the front. Forecast soundings suggest
CINH will weaken across the eastern UP of MI into northeast WI by
early afternoon, and scattered convection is expected to develop
across this region first. Wind profiles favor supercells and this
activity should spread/develop east-northeast ahead of the cold
front across northern lower MI. Latest HREF members support this
scenario and there appears to be some tornado threat with these
supercells given the shear/buoyancy. Otherwise, hail and wind can
be expected with this convection.
...Southern Plains...
Strong surface cold front is surging south across the central High
Plains early this morning and will likely advance to a position
from southwestern MO-central OK-TX South Plains at 18z. However,
the wind shift will likely slow during the afternoon, settling into
the Red River vicinity by peak heating. Intense surface heating
across northwest TX will contribute to very steep surface-3km lapse
rates just ahead of the front, more than enough to remove CINH
for convective initiation. Will maintain SLGT Risk across a small
portion of the southern Plains where intense surface heating and
frontal convergence will likely be adequate for sustained updrafts.
Modest wind profiles should support organized multicell updrafts
capable of generating hail/wind.
..Darrow/Moore.. 05/20/2022
Read more
Fri, 20 May 2022 05:52:14 +0000
SPC May 20, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CDT Fri May 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated large-hail threat is
expected from late Saturday afternoon into early evening over
parts of central Illinois and northern Indiana. A marginal hail
and wind-damage threat will also be possible Saturday afternoon
over parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, lower Ohio Valley,
lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
...Central Illinois to Northern Indiana... An upper-level trough
will move northeastward across the north-central U.S. on Saturday, as
southwest mid-level flow remains from the central Plains to the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across
the mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. By 21Z, the
front is forecast to be positioned from near Springfield, Missouri
northeastward to just south of Chicago. South of the front, surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will result in strong
instability by afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along
and to the north of the front during the late afternoon. Although
individual cells will move east-northeastward, organized line
segments will tend to move in an east or east-southeasterly
direction. Multiple line segments are forecast to develop in the
late afternoon and persist into the early evening from parts of the
mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Great Lakes.
The strongest destabilization is forecast to take place from central
Illinois into north-central Indiana, where the models suggest MLCAPE
could reach the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings late
Saturday afternoon along the instability corridor have 0-6 km shear
in the 30 to 35 knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to
exceed 8.0 C/km, indicating isolated large hail may occur with the
stronger updrafts. Low-level lapse rates are also forecast to be
steep ahead of the front, suggesting a wind-damage threat will also
be possible. The severe threat will be most likely with storms that
can move off the boundary and into the unstable airmass. The severe
threat should concentrated between 22Z and 01Z when the low-level
jet is forecast to strengthen across the mid Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move
eastward across the central High Plains on Saturday, as a cold front
advances southeastward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. Strong
destabilization is expected to the south of the front by afternoon,
where MLCAPE could reach the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Although
large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, low-level convergence
along the front will be enough for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development. Although an isolated severe threat is forecast during
the late afternoon, convective development is expected to be tied
to the front. This should keep the storms relatively close to the
boundary where instability will be considerably less. For this
reason, any potential for strong wind gusts and hail will likely
remain marginal.
...Lower Great Lakes/Northeast... Southwest mid-level flow
will remain in place across the northeastern U.S. on Saturday,
as a subtle shortwave ridge moves northeastward into southeastern
Canada. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into
the lower Great Lakes. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the
front with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. In response, moderate
instability will be in place by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm
development is forecast along the front during the afternoon. These
storms will move eastward, having trouble getting off the boundary
and into the stronger instability. For this reason, any severe
threat is expected to be isolated. Veered winds at low levels and
steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for marginally severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur with the stronger updrafts.
..Broyles.. 05/20/2022
Read more
Fri, 20 May 2022 05:59:57 +0000
SPC May 20, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220
AM CDT Fri May 20 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with wind damage and hail will
be possible across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. A marginal
severe threat may also develop in parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley and central Gulf Coast states.
...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough will move
east-northeastward across southeastern Canada on Sunday, as southwest
mid-level flow remains over the Northeast. At the surface, a low will
move northeastward across Quebec, as a front moves eastward into
the central and northern Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the 60s F will result in a moderately unstable airmass
by afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast develop along the front
around midday in western New York, and move eastward into eastern
New York and western New England during the late afternoon. A few
clusters or line segments are forecast to persist into the early
evening.
NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon, along the instability
axis, have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. 0-3 km
lapse rates are forecast to approach 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic
environment will likely support a wind-damage threat with the more
organized multicell line segments. Deep-layer shear is generally
forecast to be at 35 knots or less, suggesting that the supercell
threat will be minimal. Model forecasts indicate that most of the
convection will form along or near the boundary, as it moves from
west to east across the Northeast. A marginal wind-damage threat
may also develop near or after peak heating southward along the
instability axis from eastern Pennsylvania into northern Virginia.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... Southwest
flow at mid levels will be in place across much of the southern
U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and northern
Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms should develop near
and ahead of the front during the afternoon as temperatures warm
and low-level convergence increases. The most likely area for
thunderstorm development will be from north-central Louisiana
northeastward into northwestern Alabama. Forecast soundings along
this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear mostly below 30 knots.
But 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg
should be favorable for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail could
occur with the stronger updrafts.
..Broyles.. 05/20/2022
Read more
Fri, 20 May 2022 07:23:09 +0000
SPC May 20, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday,
an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and
central Rockies. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture return
is forecast over the southern Plains, where pockets of moderate
instability may develop during the afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be likely over parts of the southern Plains along
pre-existing boundaries and near thermal gradients. However, the
stronger mid-level flow is forecast to stay further north. This
will keep the potential for organized thunderstorms relatively
low. A marginal severe threat will be possible in areas where the
strongest instability develops.
On Tuesday, the models are in relatively good agreement that an
upper-level trough will move into the southern and central Plains.
Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection is forecast
over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A large area will
have potential for thunderstorms from Texas northeastward into
the Ohio Valley. The strongest instability is forecast over the
southern half of Texas. Organized thunderstorms could occur along
the northern edge of the stronger instability from the Texas Hill
Country east-northeastward into the Arklatex. But mesoscale aspects
of the forecast make predictability low, an outflow boundaries and
local convergence zones will be key to where the greatest convective
potential is realized Tuesday afternoon.
On Wednesday, the models continue to move an upper-level trough
slowly eastward across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast
to move into the southern Plains, Arklatex and mid Mississippi
Valley. Thunderstorm development will again be possible across a
broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. There is a lot of uncertainty on Wednesday's
forecast. The models vary on where the front will be, and have
large differences in the distribution of instability. It appears
that an MCS could develop across parts of central and east Texas,
but this will depend upon a number of factors that are more mesoscale
in nature.
Further northeast on Wednesday, thunderstorm development will
also be likely in parts of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Instability could be sufficient in some areas for a severe threat
Wednesday afternoon. However, the models have yet to show a
concentrated area with increased severe potential.
Concerning the early to mid week time-frame, a severe threat area
could be added in later outlooks as model forecasts become more
conclusive concerning key elements for severe potential.
...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, an
upper-level low is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward from
the Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. Ahead of the associated
trough, a cold front is forecast to advance east-southeastward across
the southern third of the nation. Thunderstorm development will be
likely along and ahead of the front each day. An isolated severe
threat could develop in areas that destabilize the most during
the afternoon and evening on both Thursday and Friday. It would
seem that the greatest severe threat would be over the southern
Appalachians Thursday afternoon, where low-level flow is forecast
be maximized. However, much uncertainty exists from Thursday into
Friday, mainly due to large differences in the model solutions.
Read more
Fri, 20 May 2022 09:00:01 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA TO WESTERN TEXAS...
...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions remain likely this
afternoon across a large swath of the Southwest. A broad upper-level
trough is noted in early-morning water vapor imagery over the
northwestern CONUS. An elongated cold front, currently pushing
southward through the inter-mountain West and the central Plains,
will help deepen the trough over the next 12-24 hours. This will have
the effect of increasing mid-level winds over the Southwest as well
as bolstering surface pressure falls along/ahead of the cold front
across the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Consequently,
strengthening pressure-gradient winds from the lower CO River
valley into the southern High Plains will promote widespread fire
weather concerns.
...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... Latest fuel guidance
and drought indices continues to show widespread dry conditions
with receptive fuels across much of the Southwest and southern High
Plains. Early-morning surface observations across AZ, NM, and western
TX show poor overnight RH recovery with single-digit to low teen RH
values noted. While modest RH recovery is probable across parts of
southwest AZ (via weak moisture advection from Baja California), most
locations will see 5-15% RH values by early afternoon. Widespread
sustained winds between 15-25 mph are possible as early as 18 UTC,
and will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. Wind gusts
between 30-40 mph are probable across the Critical risk area, and
may support periods of extremely critical conditions across the
southern High Plains where 30-35 mph gusts may coincide with 5-10%
RH. While forecast confidence remains high for most of the region,
the southward progression of the cold front through the afternoon
remains somewhat uncertain and may limit the northeastern extent
of fire weather concerns across northeast NM and west TX.
...Southern Nevada... A cold front is noted in early-morning
surface observations pushing southward across NV. Despite cooler
post-frontal air, mostly clear skies this afternoon will support
sufficient diurnal warming/drying for RH values to fall into the
low teens. Gusty 15-20 mph winds behind the front will support
elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon.
...Sacramento Valley... Northerly post-frontal winds are already
being observed through the Sacramento Valley. This downslope flow
regime will persist through the day and support RH reductions down
to near 15% by late afternoon. Fuels through most of the valley
have begun to cure (especially through the foothills per latest ERC
analyses), which will support the fire weather threat this afternoon.
..Moore.. 05/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 20 May 2022 06:19:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will become established
over the central/southern Plains through the day Saturday in the
wake of the surface cold front. Aloft, the departure of an embedded
shortwave disturbance will ease mid and upper-level wind speeds over
the southwestern CONUS. These factors will yield diminished fire
weather concerns compared to previous days for the Southwest and
southern High Plains where fuels are critically dry. Despite this,
regional fire weather concerns are expected for parts of central
to southern NM where pressure-gradient winds and dry conditions
will maintain fire weather concerns.
...Central to southern NM... Modest moisture advection from Baja
CA into AZ and cooler post-frontal conditions across eastern NM
will result in a pocket of dry conditions across central/southern
NM. RH values within this region are forecast to fall into the 10-15%
range by late afternoon amid mostly clear skies. Despite the surface
high over the southern Plains, continued zonal flow over the central
Rockies will support modest lee troughing in the immediate lee of the
terrain - mainly over north-central NM based on hi-res and ensemble
guidance. The resulting pressure gradient over central to southern NM
should support sustained winds near 15 mph and at least elevated fire
weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible, but
mainly across the lower desert terrain where fuel loading is poor.
..Moore.. 05/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 20 May 2022 06:49:26 +0000
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