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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.05.22 18:48z 349 Lines 17329 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7181_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21-MAY22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 220521/1830Z 7181@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 21 May 2022
09:02:02 +0000 Sat, 21 May 2022 09:02:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat May 21 09:02:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Sat May 21 09:02:02 UTC 2022.
Sat, 21 May 2022 09:01:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat May 21 09:02:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May
21 09:02:02 UTC 2022. Sat, 21 May 2022 09:01:05 +0000
SPC May 21, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241
AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
both damaging winds and large hail should develop Saturday
afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains into the
mid Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Northeast.
...Discussion...
Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably through
Saturday with a corridor of strong southwesterly flow at mid and
high levels forecast to extend from the central Rockies-mid MS
Valley-Great Lakes. Most of this stronger flow will remain along
the cool side of a notable cold front that will be oriented in a
similar fashion, but displaced 100-200 mi southeast of the jet.
Early this morning a weak short-wave trough was evident over UT.
This feature will shear northeast with minimal suppression to the
height field, except late in the period over northern latitudes. As
a result, warm-sector heating and weak low-level warm advection
will be the mechanisms instrumental in convective development. At
0530z, scattered thunderstorms are gradually expanding north of the
front from northern OK-mid MS Valley-lower MI. Isentropic ascent
will continue to aid elevated convection through sunrise and hail
remains a threat with the most robust storms. With time, clusters may
ultimately evolve which could lead to locally enhanced convergence
for potentially strong/severe thunderstorms as the boundary layer
begins to warm by late morning. Models suggest a weak surface wave
may form near the Arklatex which could lead to more concentrated
storms just downstream over AR. With a weak LLJ focused across
AR into southern IL this may be a corridor where a tornado or two
could evolve if supercells form. At this time the scenario is not
clear enough to increase tornado probabilities across this region.
Otherwise, a seasonally moist PW plume will extend from TX-OH
Valley-northern New England. Scattered strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms are expected along this corridor where modest
shear/buoyancy will be noted. Isolated hail and locally strong
winds are the primary risks.
..Darrow/Moore.. 05/21/2022
Read more
Sat, 21 May 2022 05:45:15 +0000
SPC May 21, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with wind damage and hail will
be possible across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. A marginal
severe threat may also develop in parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley and central Gulf Coast states.
...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... West-southwest to southwesterly
mid-level flow will be in place on Sunday across much of the central
and eastern U.S. A shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the Northeast. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the 60s F will result in moderate destabilization by
afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to first develop near the front
on the western edge of the moist airmass in western and northern New
York during the early afternoon. The storms are expected to move
quickly eastward from eastern New York into western and northern
New England by late afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead of the
front around 21Z from central Maine southwestward into western New
England have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be in 30 to 40 knot range along this corridor,
with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 8.0 C/km. This should be
favorable for multicells with wind damage potential. Supercells
with isolated large hail will also be possible in areas that heat
up the most. The severe threat should be closely tied to the front,
with the threat moving from west to east across the region during
the late afternoon and early evening.
Further to the south into the Mid-Atlantic, a corridor of moderate
instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent will remain weak, MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range
and 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/km should be favorable for
marginally severe wind gusts. Hail may occur with the stronger
updrafts as well.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
southern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf
Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the 70s F,
should result in moderate instability by afternoon from Louisiana
northeastward into central Mississippi and western Alabama. This
combined with steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a
marginal wind-damage threat, with storms that form along and near
the front late Sunday afternoon.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2022
Read more
Sat, 21 May 2022 05:56:53 +0000
SPC May 21, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222
AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and large hail will be
possible across parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and
evening. Marginally severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail
could also occur across parts of north and east Texas.
...Texas... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward
into the southern and central High Plains on Monday. At the surface,
a trough is forecast to develop across central Texas. Ahead of the
surface trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. In response,
moderate instability is expected across much of the moist sector by
afternoon. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across
a large portion of the southern Plains, the strongest convection is
expected along the western edge of the moderately unstable airmass.
Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage during the
afternoon and move eastward into the stronger instability across
the Texas Hill country and north Texas.
Forecast soundings Monday afternoon, near the axis of strongest
instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6
km shear is forecast to range from about 30 knots in north Texas to
around 40 knots in the Texas Hill Country. This combined with steep
low to mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for an isolated
severe threat. Wind damage would be the greatest of the threats if an
organized line segment can develop. If cells remain more discrete,
then supercell development will be possible. At this time, the
models show the best severe-weather parameters over southwest and
central Texas, where there could be a slightly greater potential
for wind damage and isolated large hail than further to the north.
If tomorrow's model runs continue to show more potential for severe
storms in central and southwest Texas on Monday, then a slight
could be added in an upcoming outlook.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2022
Read more
Sat, 21 May 2022 07:24:04 +0000
SPC May 21, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center
Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... An
upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains
on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be located
across parts of central and east Texas, where moderate instability
is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm formation will be
possible over a large part of the southern Plains eastward into the
lower Mississippi Valley. An MCS may organize along the northern
edge of the stronger instability and pose a severe threat during
the afternoon and evening. At this time, there is a large spread
in the model solutions concerning where this MCS could potentially
form. This combined with the fact that mesoscale influences will
be a strong contributor to any severe threat, makes for a lot of
uncertainty. There will likely be need for a severe threat area once
the model solutions key in on a specific area with greater potential.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly
eastward across the southern Plains. A moist and unstable airmass
should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward into
the central Gulf Coast states. Moisture advection will also take
place across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A potential for strong
thunderstorm development will be possible along the northern edge of
the stronger instability, somewhere from east Texas eastward into
lower Mississippi Valley. Other strong thunderstorms could form
ahead of a cold front from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward
into the Ohio Valley. Mesoscale influences and the distribution of
instability will again have a strong impact any severe threat that
develops Wednesday afternoon.
The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a moist airmass remains to the
east of the system. Thunderstorm development will be possible over
a large area from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the
Ohio Valley. Isolated strong thunderstorms will again be possible
along this corridor in areas that heat up the most, and in areas
where mesoscale factors are favorable.
From Tuesday to Thursday, predictability is too low to add a threat
area, due to the uncertainties previously mentioned.
...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, the
upper-level system is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the
East Coast. Thunderstorms will again be possible each day across
a broad area ahead of the system. Although strong thunderstorms
will be possible in some areas of the eastern U.S. each afternoon
and evening, the range in the forecast is too far out to make any
solid conclusions concerning specific threat areas.
Read more
Sat, 21 May 2022 09:01:59 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold
front continuing to push southward across the southern Plains. Behind
this front, pressure rises denote a building surface high across the
central High Plains, which is forecast to migrate into the southern
Plains over the next 24 hours. Consequently, weaker winds and cooler
temperatures will limit fire weather concerns compared to previous
days for most of the southern High Plains. Regional fire weather
concerns are expected for parts of the Southwest where warm/dry
conditions will persist.
...Central to southern New Mexico... Poor overnight RH recovery
is noted across central to southern NM with RH values generally
between 10-20%. These dry conditions will linger into the
afternoon as the cold front stalls to the east due to terrain
blocking. Despite persistent zonal flow aloft, the building surface
high will limit any lee troughing to northern NM where a weak low
is noted in morning observations. This low will likely undergo
slight thermally-induced deepening through the day. As a result,
the tightening regional pressure gradient over central/southern NM
and parts of far eastern AZ should support sustained winds between
15-20 mph. Diurnal RH reductions to well below 15% are likely, and
will support elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical
conditions are possible, but are most likely to occur through the
lower desert terrain (roughly along the I-25 corridor) where fuel
loading is minimal. Additionally, poor upper-level wind support
will mitigate the potential for sufficiently widespread/persistent
critical conditions.
..Moore.. 05/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 21 May 2022 05:48:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear likely for Sunday
afternoon across parts of the Southwest and Four Corners region. An
upper-level disturbance embedded within the mean trough will approach
the Four Corners region on Sunday. Falling heights aloft will support
surface pressure falls over the central Rockies, which should boost
regional pressure-gradient winds from the eastern Great Basin, into
the Southwest, and across the High Plains. Increasing winds within
an antecedent dry air mass with receptive fuels will support at
least elevated fire weather concerns, though some regional details
remain uncertain.
...Arizona into New Mexico... Sustained winds between 15-20 mph
appear likely across eastern AZ into western NM by late Sunday
afternoon amid surface pressure falls to the north across UT/CO. An
antecedent dry air mass will support widespread RH reductions to
10-15% by peak heating, and already receptive fuels will contribute
to the fire weather potential. Good agreement among ensemble
and deterministic solutions yields high confidence in elevated
conditions, and areas of critical conditions are possible across
parts of northeast AZ/northwest NM where sustained winds may exceed
20 mph. Somewhat weak mid/upper-level winds limits confidence in this
scenario at this time, but a Critical risk area may be introduced
if the potential for widespread sustained 20+ mph winds increases.
...Eastern Nevada into Utah... Most deterministic solutions hint
at areas of 15-20 mph winds overlapping with 15-25% RH values
across eastern NV into much of UT Sunday afternoon. However,
considerable spread in both the coverage and duration of these
conditions is noted, and similar spread is observed in ensemble
solutions. Furthermore, the coverage of receptive fuels across this
region is patchy based on recent ERC analyses, so the overlap of
elevated fire weather conditions with receptive fuels is somewhat
unclear. This uncertainty precludes highlights at this time, but
the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted and a
risk area may be introduced in subsequent forecast updates.
...Central/Southern High Plains... A dry return-flow pattern is
expected for Sunday afternoon with winds increasing to 15-20 mph
from western OK and the TX Panhandle into western KS/eastern CO. The
recent frontal intrusion into the Southern Plains will limit moisture
return with 20-30% RH likely across the region. However, ongoing
rainfall (as of early Saturday morning) across parts of western OK,
northwest KS, and eastern CO introduce some uncertainty regarding
fuel status by Sunday afternoon. Fuel trends will be monitored over
the next 24 hours, and highlights may be needed if confidence in
the fire weather potential increases.
...Sacramento Valley... A northerly, down-valley flow regime is
expected Sunday afternoon for the Sacramento Valley. An unseasonably
dry air mass currently over northern CA (where dewpoints are
currently near the 10th percentile for mid/late May) will linger
into Sunday and support RH reductions down to 15-20%. Ensemble
guidance suggests winds between 10-15 mph are likely, which may
support areas of elevated fire weather concerns.
..Moore.. 05/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 21 May 2022 06:47:26 +0000
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