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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.06.22 20:05z 179 Lines 9258 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7843_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-MAY22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220524/1930Z 7843@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 24 May 2022
12:38:01 +0000 Tue, 24 May 2022 12:38:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue May 24 12:38:01 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Tue May 24 12:38:01 UTC 2022.
Tue, 24 May 2022 12:37:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue May 24 12:38:01 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May
24 12:38:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 24 May 2022 12:37:05 +0000
SPC May 24, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1300Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733
AM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Numerous thunderstorms are expected from west-central
Texas into the ArkLaMiss region, some of which will produce hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
...Synopsis... The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this period
will be a pronounced synoptic-scale trough -- initially located
over the Rockies. An embedded vorticity maximum -- evident in
moisture-channel imagery over south-central CO -- is expected
to strengthen into a closed cyclone over the next several hours.
The associated 500-mb low should reach east-central/southeastern CO
near the KS border by 00Z, with trough south-southwestward across
the TX Big Bend region. The low will move eastward over western KS
overnight, while the trough assumes neutral to slightly negative
tilt, reaching the TX Hill Country and Rio Grande Valley near LRD
by the end of the period. A shortwave trough now evident over the
Four Corners region should dig southeastward across NM today, perhaps
with some convective vorticity augmentation this afternoon/evening,
then become a strong basal shortwave trough tonight over the TX
South Plains region, before pivoting east-northeastward toward
north-central TX/south-central OK.
East of the synoptic trough, a series of small shortwave
perturbations -- many of them convectively induced/enhanced vorticity
lobes -- will pivot northeastward across the Gulf Coast States,
lower Mississippi Valley region, and GA/Carolinas. One of those
-- now apparent in reflectivity composites and satellite imagery
over west-central/southwestern AL -- should move northeastward to
the eastern parts of TN/KY this evening while weakening. Another
may arise from an MCS now offshore from deep south TX, and pivot
northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity by this evening. Another
-- related to ongoing convection over western OK and northwest TX --
should move northeastward to MO. There likely will be more.
At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over NC between CLT-POB,
with warm front eastward across the southern Outer Banks, and
wavy/quasistationary front west-southwestward to northern LA. The
boundary continues diffusely into northeast TX and southern OK
as a warm front. Warm frontogenesis was evident along a boundary
extending near an SPS-OKC-TUL-JLN-OWB line, and that will become the
main front today as the Red River-area boundary gets more diffuse.
An outflow-reinforced frontal zone extended from the SPS area
southwestward to near MAF, then to near CNM and SRR.
The NC low should move slowly eastward across that state today,
along the front, with only slight northward drift of the boundary
expected just ahead of the low. A separate low should develop by
afternoon over northern OK/southern KS, becoming better defined
and moving northeastward over eastern KS tonight. The trailing,
outflow-reinforced cold front will move southeastward across much
of OK and west TX through tonight. By 12Z, the boundary should
reach from a newer/frontal-wave low over the Arklatex region
southwestward across south-central TX to the Rio Grande Valley in
the LRD-DRT corridor.
...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley... A complex
convective scenario will unfold this period, driven primarily
(but not entirely) by activity related to the baroclinic zone and
the perturbation(s) aloft pivoting through the synoptic trough.
Ongoing convection over OK and near the Red River may pose a marginal
wind threat as it impinges on a boundary layer with weak lapse
rates, but slowly/advectively strengthening warm-sector moisture
and theta-e through the afternoon.
The best-organized severe potential appears to be from two other
processes:
1. New development along the baroclinic zone across north
through west-central TX this afternoon, some of which may be
supercellular at first with large to isolated very large hail,
localized damaging gusts and a tornado or two. However, this
activity should grow upscale to a squall line rapidly as frontal
forcing encounters (and increasing large-scale ascent passes over)
the very moist warm- sector boundary layer across north, central
and perhaps parts of southwest TX. The main threat will evolve to
damaging and severe wind -- especially with surging/bowing segments.
Localized significant (65+kt) wind corridors may develop, but will
depend on mesobeta- and smaller-scale convective/cold-pool processes
whose evolution still is uncertain at this point.
Some potential for QLCS tornadoes will exist with this MCS as well
for several hours this evening, as it encounters a combination of
surface-based effective-inflow parcels and enlarging boundary-layer
hodographs/SRH beneath a strengthening LLJ. Strengthening mid/upper
flow through the day will improve deep-layer shear, with effective-
shear magnitudes topping 50 kt near the north-central/ west-central
TX frontal segment. Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should increase from
around 1000 J/kg over eastern OK and AR to 2000-3000 J/kg across
west-central TX and the Edwards Plateau vicinity.
2. A north-south, broken belt of convection forming in the
post-frontal upslope-lift regime of east-central NM and moving
southeastward. Though this activity will encounter some boundary-
layer air processed by prior convection, it will be supported
by residual moisture, midlevel cooling/lift near the trough, and
modestly diurnally enhanced low-level instability, for a threat of
strong-severe gusts and hail. Some of this convection may survive
to reach the frontal zone over west-central TX, then either merge
with or backbuild upon the above-mentioned MCS.
...Southeastern CONUS... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop, predominantly this afternoon, in a broad
area of the Southeast. Damaging gusts will be the main concern.
Coverage will vary greatly within this area, but likely greatest
along boundaries (outflow, sea-breeze and differential-heating),
and where mesoscale areas of lift related to the MCV(s) move
atop the generally favorably moist environment across the region.
Modest midlevel lapse rates and generally weak mid/upper winds will
keep deep shear weak over most of the area, with storms mainly
multicellular in nature. Brief supercell structures may develop
where mass response to MCV-related processes boosts hodograph
size locally. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado also
may occur over portions of eastern NC, south through east of the
low where the moisture/buoyancy parameter space will be maximized
today in combination with low-level shear.
..Edwards/Kerr.. 05/24/2022
Read more
Tue, 24 May 2022 12:37:11 +0000
SPC May 24, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION... The extended period will be characterized by low
predictability. On Friday (day 4), a mid-level trough is forecast
to move from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians.
A cold front will focus thunderstorms over the eastern U.S. and
a risk for damaging gusts will likely accompany the most intense
thunderstorms. The spatial uncertainty and magnitude of the
wind-damage risk preclude an areal highlight at this time. By this
weekend into early next week, a mid-level trough will develop
over parts of the West while a ridge is projected to be centered
over the southern Appalachians. Models currently indicate the
potential for severe thunderstorms to be lowest on Saturday (day 5)
with some increasing potential by Sunday through Tuesday for parts
of the central-northern Great Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest.
Read more
Tue, 24 May 2022 08:23:07 +0000
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