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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.06.22 20:30z 359 Lines 17999 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8021_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-MAY22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220528/1630Z 8021@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 28 May 2022
08:54:02 +0000 Sat, 28 May 2022 08:54:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat May 28 08:54:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Sat May 28 08:54:02 UTC 2022.
Sat, 28 May 2022 08:53:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat May 28 08:54:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May
28 08:54:02 UTC 2022. Sat, 28 May 2022 08:53:04 +0000
SPC May 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts
and large hail are expected today across parts of the central and
northern Plains. A few gusts of over 65 knots may occur. Marginally
severe storms may also occur across parts of the southern Plains
and in the Northeast.
...Central and Northern Plains... An upper-level ridge will move
eastward today across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, as
southwest mid-level flow becomes established in its wake across the
northern Plains. In response, two centers of surface low pressure
will develop in the Great Plains, one in southwest Nebraska and
the other in western South Dakota. To the east of these surface
lows, surface winds will back to the east and southeast. This will
result in a gradual increase in low-level moisture across the
central and northern Plains. Low-level convergence is forecast
to increase this afternoon in western and central South Dakota,
in and around the northern surface low. This will coincide with
thunderstorm development. These storms will expand in coverage and
move eastward across South Dakota and northern Nebraska, along the
northern edge of moderate instability.
NAM forecast soundings at 00Z/Sunday across southern and central
South Dakota have a nearly dry adiabatic profile in the low to
mid-levels. Buoyancy within the soundings is generally above 700 mb,
suggesting the storms will be high-based. A substantial amount of
speed shear is present above 700 mb, with cloud-layer shear forecast
to be near 40 knots. This combined with the steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will make severe winds possible with the stronger
multicell line segments. Some loosely organized supercells with
large hail will also be possible. The faster-moving line segments
could produce isolated wind gusts greater than 65 knots. The severe
threat should become more isolated and continue into the mid to late
evening, reaching far eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.
...Southern Plains... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place
across the southern Plains today. At the surface, a dryline
will sharpen up by afternoon from northwest Texas into western
Oklahoma. East of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the upper 50s
and lower 60s F will result in moderate destabilization. Increasing
low-level convergence along the dryline should result in convective
initiation late this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop and move eastward across northwest Texas and western
Oklahoma. In this area, deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the
30 to 40 knot range, suggesting that isolated severe thunderstorm
development will be possible. The steep low to mid-level lapse rates
will be favorable for strong wind gusts, associated with high-based
storms. The threat should end quickly during the early evening as
a capping inversion returns to the southern Plains.
...Northeast... A shortwave trough will move eastward across the
Northeast today. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward
reaching northern New England and eastern New York by midday. Ahead
of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
result in weak instability by early afternoon. This combined with
unidirectional wind profiles, and 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30
knot range, could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts. The
threat should move eastward into the coastal areas of New England
by late afternoon.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/28/2022
Read more
Sat, 28 May 2022 05:57:08 +0000
SPC May 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103
AM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely over
Nebraska northeastward into Minnesota on Sunday and Sunday night.
Significant severe weather including very large hail and 60-85 mph
gusts are possible with the strongest storms. A few tornadoes are
also possible.
...Synopsis... Model guidance is consistent in showing the exit
region of a powerful, cyclonically curved upper jet overspreading
the central High Plains into the mid MO Valley during the period,
as a large-scale mid-level trough resides over the Interior West.
A mid-level anticyclone will reside over the Carolinas. In the low
levels, a surface front is forecast to move south-southeastward
across a large part of the Dakotas into central NE and intersect
a surface low/triple point near the KS/NE border. A dryline will
extend southward into the southern Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... An elevated
thunderstorm cluster will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning over
the northern half of MN in association with warm-air advection.
An isolated hail/wind risk could accompany this activity.
Farther south and during the afternoon near the front/inverted
trough extending from the eastern Dakotas into central NE, strong
heating coupled with dewpoints rising into the 60s deg F will
lead to a moderately to very unstable airmass (ranging from 2000
J/kg north to 4000 J/kg over eastern NE). This area will likely
become weakly capped by late afternoon. Recent model guidance
has indicated isolated to scattered storms will develop over
western NE and spread into central NE during the afternoon into
the early evening. It is unclear whether convective initiation
in the warm sector will occur east of the boundary, although it
seems most probable if this scenario occurs, that it would occur
immediately northeast of the triple point in south-central NE.
Storm coverage is forecast to increase during the evening with
large to very large hail and a tornado risk with supercells during
the early evening from central NE into eastern SD. Upscale growth
into one or more clusters will pose a risk for 60-85 mph gusts.
This activity will likely continue through the late evening and
perhaps overnight with the severe risk gradually diminishing.
...Western CO and southern WY into the NE Panhandle... Cool
mid-level temperatures and diurnal heating will yield a marginally
unstable airmass featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates.
Forecast soundings show dry sub-cloud layers and effective shear
magnitudes 35-45 kt. Isolated to widely scattered storms will
likely develop by midday over western CO and into southern WY.
Strong to locally severe gusts are possible. By mid to late
afternoon near the Front Range/Laramie Range and adjacent plains,
isolated to scattered storms are probable. Increasing PW will
likely aid both a hail risk and more vigorous downdrafts capable
of widely scattered severe gusts, as this activity moves into the
NE Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening.
..Smith.. 05/28/2022
Read more
Sat, 28 May 2022 06:06:52 +0000
SPC May 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242
AM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...AND FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast from
parts of the Upper Midwest southward into the central Great Plains on
Monday and Monday night. Tornadoes, perhaps a few strong tornadoes,
large to giant hail, and severe gusts are possible.
...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains... A potent mid-level
shortwave trough will move through the base of a larger-scale trough
--centered over the Great Basin-- from southeast CO northeastward to
northern MN while evolving into a mid-level low by daybreak Tuesday.
An associated 500 mb speed max will intensify during the day with
100 kt southwesterly flow progged over eastern Nebraska by the
late afternoon. A cyclone will deepen as it moves from northern KS
north-northeastward into eastern SD by mid evening before occluding.
A dryline will extend south-southwestward from the lower to mid MO
Valley into central KS and near the TX Panhandle/OK border.
Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible early Monday morning
from remnant storms on the nose of a strong LLJ in the SD/NE/IA/MN
region. This activity will likely dissipate during the morning as
strong southerly flow advects richer low-level moisture northward
into the Upper Midwest by midday. Model guidance indicates mid
to upper 60s dewpoints from the Upper Midwest southward into IA.
Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance
will likely lead to scattered storms initiating by the early to
mid afternoon northeast of the northeastward-developing cyclone.
Enlarged hodographs and strong shear through a deep layer will favor
supercells, especially in the eastern Dakotas/western MN area during
the afternoon. Tornadoes and large hail are possible with the more
intense supercells. A few of the tornadoes may be strong given
300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Additional storms are forecast to develop
by the early evening across southern MN into IA with severe gusts
becoming increasingly probable, in additional to a lingering hail
and perhaps tornado risk.
Farther south along the dryline, a capping inversion will weaken
by the mid-late afternoon amidst a very unstable airmass (3000-4000
J/kg MLCAPE). Once the cap is breached, rapid supercell development
is expected on the southern flank of a cluster of storms from
southeastern NE into central KS. Large to giant hail is possible
initially, and as the low-level flow increases during the 23-01z
period, the risk for a tornado will correspondingly increase
along with the risk for a strong tornado. Storms will probably
consolidate during the evening as 850 mb flow increases and the
risk for a tornado will gradually lessen by mid-late evening as
the main threats transition to primarily a wind/hail threat into
the overnight.
..Smith.. 05/28/2022
Read more
Sat, 28 May 2022 07:44:12 +0000
SPC May 28, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance indicates the
upper-air pattern will transition from a trough in the West and
ridge in the East to a lower-amplitude/more-progressive flow pattern.
A risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on the southern
fringe of the stronger westerlies and where the composite boundary
becomes situated over the central/southern Great Plains into
the mid MS Valley on Tuesday (day 4). Large CAPE and adequate
shear for organized storm modes lend confidence in this scenario
for severe. By Wednesday (day 5), model variability increases in
the timing/placement of a disturbance currently projected to move
across the central U.S. as the pattern deamplifies. The latter
part of the extended period is characterized by lower potential
for severe and less predictability.
Read more
Sat, 28 May 2022 08:54:00 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....
...Synopsis... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft over much of the
western US is forecast to intensify ahead of a deepening mid-level
trough and jet streak across the West Coast. A pair of surface
cyclones will intensify west and east of the Rockies, supporting
strong surface winds through much of the day. Warm temperatures and
low humidity will continue to keep fuels dry and receptive to fire
spread. The favorable overlap of a warm, dry and windy conditions
will support widespread critical fire weather concerns across the
Southwest and southern High plains Saturday.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains. Low-level winds are forecast
to gradually increase through the morning in response to strong
surface heating/mixing and deepening low pressure over the southern
Great Basin. By midday, flow aloft is forecast to strengthen as
the main western US trough approaches, bolstering southwesterly
low-level flow to 20-30 mph across much of the Four Corners and
Southwest. The deep mixing/warm temperatures will also support dry
conditions with widespread surface RH of 10-15%. The overlap of
strong and gusty surface winds should easily support widespread
critical fire weather concerns across much of the southern Great
Basin, Four Corners and Southwest Saturday.
Farther to the east across the southern High Plains, strong downslope
winds are expected to increase south of the strengthening lee
low. Widespread winds of 20-25 mph appear possible along with warm
temperatures and afternoon humidity of 8-15%. Widespread critical
conditions are expected within drying fuels. Localized high-end
critical and extremely critical conditions may also develop for a
few hours across portions of northeastern NM, where surface gusts
aided by local terrain and a subtle mid-level jet may reach 30+ mph.
..Lyons.. 05/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 28 May 2022 06:59:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT
BASIN...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....
...Synopsis... Western US troughing will continue to amplify
across the Southwest as a significant shortwave feature within this
broader southwesterly flow ejects eastward. Forecast to reach the
Rockies late Sunday, lift from the trough will deepen a lee cyclone
across the High Plains as a cold front stalls across central Great
Basin. Widespread strong surface winds are expected ahead of the
trough from the southern Great Basin to the High Plains. The strong
winds will overlap with a warm and very dry airmass supporting
widespread critical fire weather conditions Sunday.
...Southern Great Basin and Southeast... 40-50 kt mid-level flow
and a deepening lee cyclone will once again promote a significant
diurnal increase in southwesterly low-level flow across much of
the Southwest. 20-25 mph surface winds, strongest along and south
of a stalled front across the southern Great Basin, will overlap
with a very dry and warm surface airmass characterized by 10-15%
RH. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are again expected
within very dry and drought-stressed fuels. Localized extremely
critical conditions may also develop across portions of northwestern
NM immediately ahead of the mid-level southwesterly jet. Aided by
downward momentum transfer and terrain influences, hi-res ensemble
guidance shows some potential for surface winds greater than 30 mph
overlapping with sub 10% surface humidity. While limited in spatial
and temporal overlap, strong winds and volatile fuel states suggest
higher-end fire weather concerns are possible.
...Southern High Plains... With ascent from the aforementioned
mid-level wave moving over the Rockies, a strengthening lee low
and surface dryline will promote strong southwesterly surface winds
across much of the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds
and warm surface temperatures should easily support widespread
elevated and critical fire weather conditions from eastern NM,
through the Panhandles and into southeastern CO where fuels remain
quite dry. Stronger gusts aided by terrain may also support localized
extremely critical conditions, though coverage is uncertain.
Farther north, surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% should
support elevated fire weather conditions across northern and central
CO. Moisture return moving west toward the higher terrain may also
support a few high-based thunderstorms later in the afternoon. While
not expected to reach coverage requirements for Isolated Dry Thunder
Area, a few lightning strikes will be possible within dry fuels
near the cold front.
..Lyons.. 05/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 28 May 2022 07:01:27 +0000
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