| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 04.06.22 19:00z 316 Lines 14214 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8312_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-JUN22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220604/1630Z 8312@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 04 Jun 2022
09:01:01 +0000 Sat, 04 Jun 2022 09:01:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 4 09:01:01 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 4 09:01:01 UTC 2022.
Sat, 04 Jun 2022 09:00:06 +0000
SPC MD 1027 MD 1027 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Areas affected...South Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 040859Z - 041130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat will likely continue along the
immediate coast of south Florida from the northern Florida Keys
northward into the Miami Metro area.
DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Miami shows a
large area of rain to the south and east of south Florida, from the
coastal area near Miami extending about 125 statute miles offshore.
Some of the storms embedded in the area of rain have had rotation.
An the Miami WSR-88D VWP has a long and curved hodograph, with 0-3
storm relative helicity just above 300 m2/s2. This will continue to
support an isolated tornado threat this morning with the stronger
cells that move into the immediate coastal areas of south Florida. A
potential will exist for waterspouts, but the tornado threat will
remain marginal, and no watch is expected.
..Broyles/Grams.. 06/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...
LAT...LON 27117987 27297995 27238016 26698016 26268018 25758028
25428044 25028072 24878059 25128025 25987989 26597979
27117987
Read more
Sat, 04 Jun 2022 09:00:04 +0000
SPC Jun 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236
AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes and gusty winds may accompany
thunderstorms across south Florida during the day. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are also possible across the central Plains late
Saturday afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into
the southern Great Plains.
...South Florida...
An agitated low-pressure system is currently located over the
southeastern Gulf Basin, just west of the FL Keys. This system is
forecast to track across south FL later today and LLJ will increase
and focus along the southeast coast of FL. Latest radar data suggests
some of the stronger storms over the FL Straits have exhibited
rotation within a strengthening wind field. While lapse rates and
buoyancy will remain characteristically weak, strengthening shear
favors some threat for a few tornadoes and locally damaging winds
with more robust convection.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Mean ridging will hold across the central/southern Rockies through
the day1 period, although a few notable weak short-wave troughs
are expected to eject into the Plains where robust convection will
likely evolve in response to these features. Early this morning,
diurnally initiated convection, that evolved over southeastern
WY/Front Range of CO Friday afternoon, has propagated into the
central High Plains. This activity should migrate into eastern KS
by daybreak where left-over convective debris and weak showers are
most likely at the start of the period. Warm-frontal convection
will also be ongoing at the start of the period across northern
NE. This activity should drift into western IA and likely reinforce
the warm front that should remain draped near I80 across NE. Latest
guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across
the central Plains and convective temperatures should be breached by
late afternoon, especially across western NE/northwest KS. Scattered
robust updrafts should evolve within northwesterly mid-level flow
then propagate southeast toward northern KS during the evening.
Large hail and damaging winds can be expected with supercells and
organized clusters.
More isolated convection is expected across the southern Great
Plains ahead of a very weak mid-level disturbance. This feature will
approach the TX border by late afternoon which should aid at least
isolated thunderstorms within an air mass that will be modestly
unstable and adequately sheared for organized updrafts. Have not
introduced a SLGT to this region but early-day storms may ultimately
provide a convective outflow across parts of TX that could serve
as the focus for potentially organized severe. If this becomes
more clear in later outlooks this will be addressed accordingly.
Otherwise, hail/wind are possible with the strongest storms across
the Plains later Sunday.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/04/2022
Read more
Sat, 04 Jun 2022 05:40:09 +0000
SPC Jun 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248
AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms may develop over portions
of the central Plains vicinity on Sunday. Damaging gusts and large
hail will be the main hazards with these storms.
...Central Plains vicinity...
Zonal mid/upper flow will develop over much of the western states
into the Plains on Sunday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast
to track from eastern OK/KS into the lower MS Valley early.
Thunderstorms associated with this feature may be ongoing Sunday
morning across eastern KS/OK. Steep lapse rates and abundant
boundary-layer moisture could support isolated strong gusts and/or
hail with this activity.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify later
in the afternoon across far eastern CO or western KS northward into
western NE and southern SD. A weak shortwave midlevel trough is
forecast to eject eastward from the central Rockies into the central
Plains, providing modest large-scale ascent. In the low levels,
southerly flow will transport mid 60s dewpoints as far north as
central NE, with low 60s into far southern SD. Steep midlevel
lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer, and strong daytime
heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE
values in the 2500-3500 J/kg range expected. A dryline will extend
southward across western NE/KS, with a warm front extending west
to east near the NE/SD border into IA. Higher-based thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of the dryline and along
the warm front by late afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain weak,
though some increase in midlevel flow is expected as the shortwave
trough ejects during the evening. Vertically veering wind profiles
will result in modest shear, with effective shear magnitudes
around 25-35 kt anticipated. This will support supercells with
an attendant threat for large hail, some possibly greater than 2
inches in diameter. Higher-based storms with steep low-level lapse
rates and weak low-level flow will favor strong outflow winds with
this initial activity as well. With time, some upscale development
into an east or southeastward propagating MCS is possible during
the evening/overnight, with a continued threat for damaging winds
spreading across parts of NE/KS.
...Northern Rockies...
Moderate west/southwesterly flow and increasing midlevel moisture
will overspread parts of the northern Rockies on Sunday. Midlevel
lapse rates will be modestly steep due to cool midlevel temperatures,
and MLCAPE values may increase to around 250-500 J/kg. Nearly
unidirectional deep-layer flow, increasing with height will result in
elongated hodographs. A few strong storms could produce gusty wind
or small hail, but overall severe potential appears limited at this
time by weak forcing and relatively cool boundary-layer conditions.
..Leitman.. 06/04/2022
Read more
Sat, 04 Jun 2022 05:52:09 +0000
SPC Jun 4, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221
AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday
from the central High Plains toward the Ozarks. Damaging gusts and
hail are the main hazards expected with this activity.
...Central High Plains to the Ozarks Vicinity...
The overall large-scale pattern will not change much on Day
3/Monday. A weak shortwave trough will be located over the mid/upper
MS Valley early Monday and pivot eastward through the day while
another weak shortwave impulse migrates through westerly flow to the
Ozarks vicinity by afternoon. An MCS may be ongoing Monday morning
across parts of MO, leading to some uncertainty in severe potential
across the region. However, a moist and unstable airmass will exist
and some re-invigoration of morning convection or perhaps afternoon
development along any remnant outflows could pose a threat for hail
or damaging gusts.
Further west toward the central High Plains, modest westerly flow
will prevail early in the period. However, west/northwest mid/upper
flow is forecast to increase by early evening as another weak
midlevel trough develops eastward from the Rockies into the Plains.
South/southeasterly low level flow will maintain a moist airmass
across OK and KS, though some uncertainty in moisture quality with
northward extent, and in the position of surface boundaries exists.
Nevertheless, an unstable environment and moist, upslope flow
should support strong to severe thunderstorm development by late
afternoon/early evening across the central High Plains, similar to
prior days (Day 1 and 2 period). Convection may become organized
into an east/southeastward progressing MCS during the nighttime hours
over portions of KS/northern OK, posing a threat for severe gusts.
..Leitman.. 06/04/2022
Read more
Sat, 04 Jun 2022 07:23:04 +0000
SPC Jun 4, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow will persist through
at least Day 5/Wed. Weak shortwave impulses will migrate through
westerly flow atop a moist and unstable airmass across portions of
the central Plains toward the mid-MS Valley. Southerly low-level
upslope flow will support daily thunderstorm development across
the central High Plains and some potential for overnight MCS
activity tracking across the central Plains toward the mid-MS
Valley will continue. By Day 6/Thu or Day 7/Fri, deterministic
and ensemble guidance suggest upper level flow will amplify,
with stronger northwesterly flow developing over the Plains
and Midwest as a deepening trough develops over the mid-MS and
OH Valley vicinity. This could support some increasing severe
potential further east from eastern KS/OK into the mid/lower MS
Valley. Overall, forecast uncertainty is somewhat high with lower
confidence given several rounds of potential MCSs leading into and
continuing through the Day 4-8 period.
Read more
Sat, 04 Jun 2022 08:30:00 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis... Zonal midlevel flow is expected over the Southwest
today, while a weak surface low persists over the Great Basin.
...Portions of the Southwest... As temperatures climb into the
90s F over parts of the Southwest today, widespread 10-15 percent
RH will develop during the afternoon. While the surface pressure
gradient will generally be weak, modestly enhanced westerly flow
aloft will mix down to the surface during peak heating, resulting
in 15-20 mph westerly surface winds amid very dry fuels. Therefore,
Elevated highlights have been maintained for eastern AZ, parts of NM,
and the western TX Trans-Pecos. While locally enhanced fire-weather
conditions will also be possible over terrain-favored areas of the
southern Great Basin, these conditions appear too localized for
highlights at this time.
..Weinman.. 06/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 04 Jun 2022 06:59:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis... Westerly midlevel flow will persist over the
Southwest, where a dry airmass will remain in place.
...Portions of the Southwest... A deeply-mixed boundary layer will
result in widespread 10-15 percent minimum RH across the Southwest
during the afternoon, where breezy westerly surface winds near 15
mph are expected. Given the presence of very dry fuels, elevated
conditions will be possible over southeastern AZ, southern NM,
and the western TX Trans-Pecos.
..Weinman.. 06/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 04 Jun 2022 07:00:13 +0000
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
