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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.06.22 19:00z 316 Lines 14647 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8359_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-JUN22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220605/1631Z 8359@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 05 Jun 2022
08:46:02 +0000 Sun, 05 Jun 2022 08:46:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 5 08:46:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 5 08:46:02 UTC 2022.
Sun, 05 Jun 2022 08:45:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Jun 5 08:46:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun
5 08:46:02 UTC 2022. Sun, 05 Jun 2022 08:45:05 +0000
SPC Jun 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245
AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather may develop across the
central Plains Sunday afternoon then spread into Oklahoma during the
evening. Very large hail and damaging winds are expected. An upgrade
to Moderate Risk may be warranted. Otherwise, isolated strong/severe
storms are possible across the interior northwestern United States.
...Central Plains/Oklahoma...
Early this morning a weak short-wave trough was located over
eastern ID/UT. This feature is forecast to translate through the
central Rockies ridge into the High Plains of NE/CO by 18z then
turn southeast into central KS/western OK by 06/00z. While mid-level
flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, latest NAM guidance
suggests 30-40kt of 500mb flow will strengthen to near 60kt over
northern OK by late evening, possibly influenced by convective
feedback. Regardless, LLJ will respond to this feature and increase
markedly by early evening along the I-35 corridor across OK/KS,
perhaps intensifying in excess of 60kt by 06/06z over northern OK
before veering into northwest AR by daybreak Monday. A reservoir of
very strong instability will likely extend across western KS into
central OK. However, one caveat that could disrupt this instability
would be a deviant MCS storm motion after sunrise this morning. This
will be addressed at 13z.
A slow-moving MCS is currently propagating southeast across
central KS. Boundary-layer disruption from this activity will prove
highly influential in late-afternoon convective development/severe
potential. Current thinking is the MCS should spread across central
KS toward northeast OK and likely force a convective boundary to
drape itself in a southeast-northwest oriented fashion along the
western/southern flank of this complex. Strong boundary-layer heating
across the central High Plains should easily remove CINH ahead of the
short wave for thunderstorm development. This activity should grow
upscale as it propagates southeast along/near the aforementioned
MCS outflow. While supercells may be noted early in the convective
cycle, a potentially significant MCS may evolve over KS and surge
into northern OK during the evening. Early supercells could produce
hail in excess of 2 inches while the maturing MCS could generate
significant wind, possibly in excess of 75 miles per hour with any
bow echoes. Large convective complex should spread toward northwest
AR during the late night hours.
...Interior Northwest...
Notable 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across northern
CA into southeast OR by late afternoon. Strongly diffluent
high-level flow, cooling mid-level temperatures, and steep lapse
rates will encourage/support organized convection. Strengthening
wind profiles may result in a few supercells that could generate
isolated hail/wind.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/05/2022
Read more
Sun, 05 Jun 2022 05:49:18 +0000
SPC Jun 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242
AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
CO AND WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWEST OK...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday
from portions of the northern and central High Plains toward the
Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. Damaging gusts and hail are the main
hazards expected with this activity. The greatest potential for
severe storms will be concentrated over far southeast Colorado
into southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma Monday evening into
early Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A compact mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast over the Ozarks
Monday morning. An MCS associated with this feature is expected
to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of southwest MO into
eastern OK. This MCS and any MCV will drive at least low-end severe
potential as it shifts east across parts of the mid-MS/lower-OH
Valley vicinity. Further to the west, zonal flow will persist across
the western states into the Plains. Another weak shortwave impulse is
forecast to eject eastward from the central Rockies into the Plains
Monday evening/overnight. This will result in increasing mid/upper
level flow atop a moist and unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered
storms will develop in moist upslope flow from southeast MT southward
to southeast KS by late afternoon and spread east/southeast during
the evening. Another MCS may organized across western KS into
northwest OK overnight.
...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley Vicinity...
There is some uncertainty in location and magnitude of severe
potential on Monday. This will be influenced by the location of any
ongoing MCS across the Ozarks vicinity during the morning, and the
track of any associated MCV through the afternoon. The downstream
airmass across the lower OH Valley will moisten through the day,
with at least weak destabilization expected. This will be limited
somewhat by cloud cover and modest midlevel lapse rates. Deep-layer
flow will also be modest, but effective shear magnitudes around
25-30 kt should support some storm organization. Marginally severe
hail and strong gusts will be the main concern with thunderstorms
through early evening.
...Southeast CO into Western KS/OK...
A small surface low is forecast over western north TX Monday morning,
with a warm front extending across southern OK. Northwesterly
low-level flow will exist across much of the central/southern
Plains behind a weak surface trough. The warm front over OK will
lift northward through the day and low-level winds will become
south/southeasterly. This will transport rich boundary-layer
moisture north and west toward the central High Plains. As a weak
shortwave impulse ejects across the central Rockies by early evening,
thunderstorms are expected to develop in moist upslope flow amid
moderate instability and steep lapse rates. Hail and damaging
gusts will be possible with initial high-based supercells. Some
upscale development will be possible as midlevel flow increases
during the evening/overnight period and another MCS may develop and
track east/southeast across parts of western KS into northwest OK,
posing a damaging wind threat.
...Northern High Plains Vicinity...
More isolated thunderstorm development is possible across the
northern High Plains vicinity. Surface dewpoints will be lower and
instability weaker with northward extent into eastern WY/western NE
and southeast MT/southwest SD. Nevertheless, adequate deep-layer
flow and steep lapse rates will support some potential for hail
and gusty outflow winds.
..Leitman.. 06/05/2022
Read more
Sun, 05 Jun 2022 05:51:11 +0000
SPC Jun 5, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228
AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
CO AND NORTHEAST NM INTO WESTERN KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND
NORTHWEST OK...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging
gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and
southern Plains on Tuesday.
...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks Vicinity...
A corridor of severe potential will persist from the central/southern
Plains vicinity into the Ozarks on Tuesday. Zonal flow will remain
over the region with a shortwave impulse ejecting across the
northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight hours. This
will result in increasing westerly deep-layer flow atop a moist
and unstable airmass.
Some uncertainty regarding the location/extent of greatest severe
potential exists due to likely widespread convection ongoing at the
beginning of the period across parts of the northern/central Plains.
Current thinking is that a surface boundary will be left behind
by this early convection, and extend roughly west to east from
southeast CO into southern KS or northern OK. South/southeasterly
low level flow across the southern Plains should allow for airmass
recovery into southeast CO, the OK/TX Panhandles, much of OK and KS.
Thunderstorms are then expected to develop during the late afternoon
or evening in a moist upslope flow regime, similar to the several
days leading into Tuesday. This activity will then grow upscale
during the nighttime hours as midlevel flow increases and propagate
east/southeast across portions of the southern Plains. Large
hail and damaging gusts will be possible with these storms. The
northward extent of severe potential will largely be moderated by
ongoing precipitation at the beginning of the period, and how much
the airmass may be able to recover into northeast CO and southern NE.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the morning
and afternoon across parts of southern KS/northern OK into the
Ozarks. However, the magnitude of severe potential remains unclear
as destabilization will be somewhat limited by ongoing precipitation
and cloudiness, and from possible impacts from several rounds of
thunderstorms/potential MCSs leading into Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 06/05/2022
Read more
Sun, 05 Jun 2022 07:31:08 +0000
SPC Jun 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will amplify over the northern
Rockies on Day 4/Wed while a shortwave trough migrates across
the Midwest. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential
will be possible as a surface front shifts east across the
Midwest. However, widespread precipitation and cloudiness will
limit destabilization and heavy rain may be the predominant hazard
rather than focused/organized severe convection. The exception may
be across parts of the southern High Plains into the TX Panhandle
and parts of Oklahoma where another MCS could develop in moist
upslope flow during the evening/overnight. However, confidence in
this scenario is low given several days within a similar pattern
and multiple rounds of prior convection.
By Day 5/Thu, a more synoptically evident pattern supporting
the development of a severe MCS is forecast to emerge over the
central Plains. A strong shortwave impulse is forecast to track
across SD/NE/KS. Enhanced northwest flow aloft will overspread a
strengthening southwesterly low-level jet on the periphery of a
very moist and unstable boundary-layer. ECMWF and GFS deterministic
guidance as well as ECENS/GEFS ensemble data are in fairly good
agreement in this signal for the development of a severe MCS over the
central Plains. While this area may shift some in coming outlooks,
a 15 percent delineation appears prudent at this time across a
large portions of the central Plains.
Some severe potential as a continuation or reinvigoration of the
ongoing MCS from Day 5/Thu could persist into Day 6/Fri across
portions of the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. However, forecast
guidance varies considerably in the evolution of a surface low and
cold front over the southern Plains into the Midwest and forecast
confidence is low. Large spread in forecast guidance continues
into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun with the ECMWF showing a more progressive
and amplified pattern compared to the GFS.
Read more
Sun, 05 Jun 2022 08:46:00 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis... Deep westerly flow will continue across the
Southwest, where a dry airmass remains in place. Farther east,
dry/breezy northeasterly low-level flow will overspread the Carolinas
on the backside of a tropical system traversing the western Atlantic.
...Southwest... As temperatures climb into the 90s to near 100 F,
widespread 10-15 percent RH will develop during the afternoon. While
the surface pressure gradient will generally be weak, modestly
enhanced westerly flow within the deepening boundary layer will
support 15 mph westerly surface winds amid the low RH. This could
result in elevated fire-weather conditions over southeast AZ,
southern NM, and the western TX Trans-Pecos -- where fuels are
critically dry.
..Weinman.. 06/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 05 Jun 2022 06:38:30 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... While a dry airmass will remain in place across
much of the Southwest, weak deep-layer flow will generally limit
the risk of significant wildfire spread. With that said, locally
elevated conditions will still be possible over terrain-favored
areas given the presence of very dry fuels.
..Weinman.. 06/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 05 Jun 2022 06:40:28 +0000
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