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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.06.22 11:39z 466 Lines 20413 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-MAY22
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Sent: 220525/1730Z 7882@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Wed, 25 May 2022
09:23:02 +0000 Wed, 25 May 2022 09:23:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272 WW 272 SEVERE TSTM TX CW
250435Z - 251000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM EDT Wed
May 25 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South and southeast Texas Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday morning from 1235 AM until 600 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A
tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Extensive squall line should accelerate east-southeast
overnight with mainly strong to isolated severe wind gusts
potentially producing scattered damage.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southwest
of Alice TX to 30 miles east northeast of Huntsville TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 270...WW 271...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 29040.
...Grams
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 09:23:02 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272 Status Reports WW 0272
Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE COT TO
25 NNE ALI TO 30 E CRP TO 45 WNW BPT TO 35 SE LFK.
..KERR..05/25/22
ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC071-131-249-273-291-355-479-251040-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMBERS DUVAL JIM WELLS KLEBERG
LIBERTY NUECES WEBB
GMZ231-250-335-355-251040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 09:23:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271 Status Reports WW 0271
Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 271
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW UTS TO
30 NNE UTS.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 271 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 25/08Z.
..KERR..05/25/22
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 271
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC185-250800-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRIMES
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 07:29:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 Status Reports WW 0270
Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 270
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT TO
40 WNW NIR.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 270 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED
IN TIME FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS
NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THESE COUNTIES.
..KERR..05/25/22
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 270
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC127-163-323-507-250800-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIMMIT FRIO MAVERICK ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 07:27:04 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed May 25 09:23:04 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May
25 09:23:04 UTC 2022. Wed, 25 May 2022 09:22:05 +0000
SPC May 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228
AM CDT Wed May 25 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
AND NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur
Wednesday from the Texas Coastal Plain into parts of the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley, Southeast, Midwest, and Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis... Early Wednesday morning, a deepening upper low
is evident over the southern Plains in water-vapor imagery. This
feature is expected to deepen further as it meanders east towards
the mid-MS River Valley through early Thursday. At the surface, a
broad warm frontal zone across the middle U.S. will consolidate and
lift north through the day, allowing for a poleward return of richer
boundary-layer moisture into the Midwest by late afternoon. An MCS,
currently draped from eastern to southern TX, will likely be near
the TX and LA Gulf coast by 12 UTC. This feature (or its residual
outflow) is forecast to drift into the northern Gulf Coast region
by around peak daytime heating and will act as an impetus for
scattered thunderstorm development. To the north across the mid-MS
River Valley and the Midwest, isolated thunderstorms are likely
within a broad warm advection regime ahead of the upper low.
...Northern Gulf Coast... The ongoing MCS across TX will likely
reach the lower MS River Valley region by around mid-day. This
boundary will act as a focus for thunderstorm initiation and/or
re-intensification of residual convection associated with the
MCS. Increasing southeasterly mid-level flow on the periphery of the
upper-jet region will support 25-35 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear and
the potential for organized convection. However, the thermodynamic
environment in place along the northern Gulf Coast (and areas well
inland) is uncertain. Isolated to scattered storms associated with
a weak mid-level wave lifting through the MS River Valley during the
morning and early afternoon hours may weaken mid-level lapse rates
via convective overturning and mute diurnal destabilization. Ensemble
probabilities reflect this uncertainty with a limited signal for
1000+ J/kg SBCAPE away from the immediate coast. An additional round
of thunderstorms associated with an approaching cold front appears
probable during the late afternoon/early evening across eastern
TX into southern LA, but buoyancy concerns limit confidence in the
propensity for severe/organized convection.
...Midwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
within a broad zone of ascent ahead of the deepening upper low and
within a warm advection regime. While the northward return of 60-65
F dewpoints will aid in destabilization, poor mid-level lapse rates
will limit CAPE profiles. 40-50 knot mid/upper-level flow atop south
to southeasterly surface winds will provide sufficient deep-layer
shear to compensate for the thermodynamic weakness to a degree; a
few cells may show periodic organization and pose a hail/damaging
wind threat. More backed low-level flow in the vicinity of the
surface low over the mid-MS River Valley and within the surface
warm frontal zone may provide enough effective helicity to support
a brief/weak tornado threat.
..Moore/Jewell.. 05/25/2022
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 05:33:08 +0000
SPC May 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Wed May 25 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
over Ohio and adjacent portions of northeast Oregon and Idaho
on Thursday. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary severe
hazards.
...Synopsis... A mid-level low initially centered over western MO
will move east to IN by early Friday morning. An elongated area
of low pressure over the mid MS Valley/Great Lakes regions will
become less defined over the southern Great Lakes as the primary
low develops into Quebec. An accompanying cold front will push
eastward across the lower MS Valley and Mid South.
Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the Great Basin/northern
Rockies will shift eastward as a mid-level speed max moves into the
interior Pacific Northwest by late afternoon and into the northern
Rockies late.
...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Nestled in between the
mid-level low over MO and a subtropical mid-level ridge over the Gulf
Stream, deep-layer southerly flow will gradually intensify during
the day. Scattered showers/storms are probably from parts of the Mid
South northward into the lower OH Valley during the morning. Pockets
of heating via cloud breaks will lead to moderate destabilization
across parts of upper OH Valley. Models suggest a thunderstorm
band or several north-northeastward-moving clusters will develop
by early afternoon as a very weak cap erodes. Multicells capable
of isolated severe gusts resulting in widely scattered wind damage
seems most plausible across central/eastern OH. Other strong to
locally severe storms are possible farther north into Lower MI and
in closer proximity to the mid-level low during the afternoon.
...Interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies... A lead
disturbance will move from the OR coast into the northern Rockies
during the period ahead of a more prominent mid-level trough
located to the west of the WA Coast. Steep mid-level lapse rates
and strengthening flow in the mid-levels (around 50 kt at 500 mb)
will contribute to storm organization potential. As large-scale
ascent increases during the afternoon coupled with strong heating,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
in central and eastern OR and move northeast. Long hodographs will
favor hail with the stronger cores and severe gusts will be possible
with the more intense downdrafts. This activity will likely spread
into ID and MT during the evening with a lingering risk for mainly
gusts into portions of the northern Rockies.
...Southeast... Model guidance continues to yield a plethora of
potential forecast scenarios for Thursday. Confidence is relatively
high a thunderstorm band will move eastward along the central Gulf
Coast and affect portions of southern AL and the FL Panhandle.
It remains uncertain whether some of this convection continues into
the afternoon or dissipates during the morning. Needless to say,
a very moist airmass will be in place across the Southeast with
upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints. Models continue to
indicate strong southerly 850 mb flow over AL/western GA during
the afternoon/early evening as mid-level flow increases overhead.
Clusters of scattered storms will likely develop or rejuvenate on
earlier convective outflow with damaging gusts seemingly being the
primary hazard.
..Smith.. 05/25/2022
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 06:03:55 +0000
SPC May 25, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230
AM CDT Wed May 25 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
on Friday from the Carolinas northward into eastern Pennsylvania
and New Jersey. Damaging gusts are the primary threat with the
stronger storms.
...Synopsis... A mid-level low initially over the lower OH Valley
will move east-northeastward into western PA by early Saturday.
A composite boundary will push east across the Appalachians and
much of the eastern U.S. during the period. Farther west, a belt
of low-amplitude flow will spread across the northwestern CONUS as
a mid-level ridge weakens over the central U.S.
...Southeast northward through the Mid-Atlantic states and NY/VT...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning
from parts of the central Appalachians southward into the Carolinas
and northeast Gulf of Mexico. Southerly low-level flow will advect
increasingly rich moisture northward into the Mid-Atlantic states
and Northeast. Model guidance indicates surface dewpoints will
range from the mid 60s north in NY to the upper 60s to lower 70s
from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity and south. Ahead of the convection,
the airmass is forecast to become moderately unstable with 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE forecast from coastal SC into the Mid-Atlantic states.
Bands of storms and linear clusters will likely develop by the early
afternoon and intensify into peak heating. Ample deep-layer shear
for storm organization will exist from the Canadian border southward
into the Mid-Atlantic states with 30-50 kt effective shear forecast.
Weaker flow is progged farther south (20-30 kt effective shear) but
organized multicells will be possible. Large hail could accompany
the stronger cells but 50-65 mph gusts and wind damage will likely
occur with the stronger downdrafts/surges in thunderstorm bands.
This activity will likely weaken during the evening.
...MT into western Dakotas... A series of weak mid-level
disturbances is forecast to move quickly east across the northern
Rockies into the northern Great Plains. As a result, an area of
low pressure will likely develop over the western Dakotas by late
afternoon. A marginally moist boundary layer beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will yield 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by late afternoon.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop
during the late afternoon/early evening. Isolated severe gusts
and hail may accompany the stronger storms.
..Smith.. 05/25/2022
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 07:32:09 +0000
SPC May 25, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance is converging towards
a scenario in which the north-central U.S. will be a focus for
thunderstorms and a risk for severe weather beginning this weekend.
Models show the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved upper jet
to impinge on the SD vicinity on Saturday. Boundary-layer moisture
will gradually increase into the weekend beneath a reinvigorated
elevated mixed layer forecast to overspread the central Great Plains
northward into SD on Saturday. A surface boundary and warm-air
advection will help focus storm development both on Saturday and
Sunday over parts of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. By early
next week, some model spread and uncertainty regarding convective
details compel a predictability-too-low highlight. With those
caveats listed, it seems the severe risk will probably be located
from parts of the central High Plains northward into the Upper
Midwest in proximity to the stronger westerlies.
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 08:16:59 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow will persist across the Four
Corners region into the southern High Plains for today, maintaining
at least regional fire weather concerns. Early morning surface
observations show very dry conditions (nocturnal RH values in the
single digits and teens) across western NM into eastern AZ, and 00
UTC RAOBs also show limited boundary-layer moisture. No appreciable
moisture recovery is expected, fostering another day of 5-15%
RH values region wide. Furthermore, active wildfires were noted
yesterday across the region, confirming the presence of critically
dry fuels. Winds today will generally be more benign compared to
Tuesday as the surface low over southern TX weakens. However, 20-30
mph flow within the boundary layer will likely mix down amid strong
diurnal heating by mid afternoon. Sustained winds between 15-20
mph are expected, and occasional gusts to 30-35 mph are possible
(especially for locations that typically see terrain-enhanced
winds). Consequently, areas of elevated (to briefly critical)
fire weather conditions are expected.
..Moore.. 05/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 05:58:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will increase for parts of
the Great Basin Thursday afternoon. An approaching upper-level wave
off the West Coast will support pressure falls across the northern
Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. The low-level mass response will
induce south/southwesterly downslope flow off the Sierra Nevada
into northwestern and southern NV. Little moisture recovery into
the region is expected over the next 48 hours, and the combination
of downslope effects and deep boundary-layer mixing will exacerbate
low-level dryness. Forecast RH values in the 10-15% range appear
likely based on ensemble consensus, through some locations may see
RH values fall into the single digits. The modest nature of the
pressure falls will likely support 15-20 mph winds and several hours
of elevated fire weather conditions, though frequent gusts between
25-30 mph appear probable for southern NV where the strongest wind
signal is noted in ensemble guidance. Fuels across southern NV remain
critically dry based on latest ERC analyses and will support the
fire weather threat. Portions of northwest NV have seen only 5-10%
of their normal rainfall over the past 30 days per AHPS analyses,
and reports from the local WFO indication that lower-elevation
grasses have cured. This fuel information, combined with reasonably
high confidence in elevated wind/RH conditions, warrant an expansion
of the risk area into northwest NV.
...Dry Thunderstorms... The approach of the upper-level wave will
also provide sufficient lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the greater Pacific Northwest region. Forecast soundings
from multiple models hint that adequate mid-level moisture and
steep mid-level lapse rates may be in place across northern NV to
support a few isolated thunderstorms. PWAT values near 0.5 inches
and a deep/dry sub-cloud layer will support the potential for dry
lightning. At this time the greatest potential for thunderstorms
only marginally overlaps spatially with critically dry fuels, but
this potential will be monitored for northwest to central NV where
fuels are receptive.
..Moore.. 05/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 25 May 2022 06:57:28 +0000
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