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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.06.22 11:41z 337 Lines 17018 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-MAY22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220526/1730Z 7930@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 26 May 2022
08:57:02 +0000 Thu, 26 May 2022 08:57:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu May 26 08:57:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Thu May 26 08:57:02 UTC 2022.
Thu, 26 May 2022 08:56:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu May 26 08:57:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May
26 08:57:02 UTC 2022. Thu, 26 May 2022 08:56:05 +0000
SPC May 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233
AM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms
may occur Thursday over Ohio/eastern Kentucky, northeastern Georgia
into the far western Carolinas, and parts of northeastern Oregon,
southeastern Washington, and Idaho. Severe wind gusts and large
hail should be the primary hazards.
...Synopsis... An upper-level low over the central CONUS is evident
in early-morning water vapor imagery. This feature will continue
to drift east into the southern/central Appalachians over the next
24 hours. As this occurs, a diffuse surface low and attendant cold
front will shift into the OH River Valley and southeastern U.S.
respectively. 00 UTC RAOBs from across these regions sampled
modest mid-level lapse rates (generally between 6-7 C/km), but
a broad swath of boundary-layer mean mixing ratios between 10-13
g/kg across the region coupled with diurnal warming will support
adequate buoyancy for convection by early afternoon. To the west, an
upper-level wave off the West Coast will move onshore later today.
Height falls across the Pacific Northwest and the approach of a
mid-level cold front will support thunderstorm development late in
the afternoon/evening.
...Southeast... A cold front currently moving across the lower MS
River Valley is expected to continue eastward into the Southeast
today. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period along the Gulf Coast, but will increase in coverage along the
front through the late morning and early afternoon across AL into GA.
Although moist profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates will limit
buoyancy to a degree, MLCAPE should be adequate for increasingly
robust updrafts by early afternoon. Increasing deep-layer shear off
the boundary, as well as strengthening 850-700 mb flow, will support
the potential for a few cells and/or organized segments along the
front. A Slight risk is introduced for portions of central GA into
the western Carolinas where the potential for such organized segments
(and an attendant damaging wind threat) appears greatest.
A diffuse wedge front, noted in early-morning observations across the
Carolinas, is expected to lift north as a warm frontal zone through
the day in response to increasing southerly flow. Thunderstorms may
develop along this boundary during the afternoon. A few stronger,
more organized cells are possible, but storm motions along the
boundary and the possibility of destructive storm interference may
limit this potential.
...Upper OH River Valley... Broad ascent ahead of the upper low
overlaid with a mid-level convergence zone will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms from IL into the upper OH River
Valley. Modest low to mid-level lapse rates will limit buoyancy
despite 55-65 F dewpoints already in place. However, forecast
soundings show adequate CAPE profiles to utilize the stronger flow
aloft with 35-45 knots of effective bulk shear likely across this
region. The isolated to scattered nature of convection should allow
for at least a few organized cells and/or linear segments. Narrow
CAPE profiles may limit the overall hail potential to a degree, but
30-40 knot flow within the lowest 1 km will support a damaging-wind
potential. Recent guidance continues to suggest that the greatest
convective coverage (and hence increased wind threat) will reside
across northeast KY into OH and far western WV near the exit region
of the upper jet.
...Pacific Northwest... 00 UTC soundings from across the Pacific
Northwest have shown a general increase in mid-level moisture over
the past 12 hours as deep-layer onshore flow increases. Additionally,
mid-level lapse rates have steepened as broad, but weak, ascent
overspreads the region ahead of the upper-level wave. This trend will
continue through the day and, when coupled with daytime heating,
should support around 500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. While
buoyancy may be somewhat limited, straight hodographs off an
initiating cold front will promote discrete cells, including the
potential for a few supercells, from northeast OR into northern
ID. Large hail appears probable with these cells, and steep low-level
lapse rates with a 1-2 km dry sub-cloud layer will support the
potential for severe wind gusts.
..Moore/Darrow.. 05/26/2022
Read more
Thu, 26 May 2022 05:37:08 +0000
SPC May 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236
AM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
on Friday from the Carolinas northward into eastern Pennsylvania and
New Jersey. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats with the stronger storms in the Chesapeake Bay region.
...Synopsis... A mid-level low initially over southern IN will move
east-northeastward into central PA and weaken into an open trough
by early Saturday. A composite boundary will push east across
the Appalachians and much of the eastern U.S. during the period.
Farther west, a belt of low-amplitude, southwesterly mid-level
flow will spread across the northwestern CONUS as a mid-level ridge
weakens over the central U.S.
...Southeast northward through the Mid-Atlantic states and
NY/VT/ME... Model guidance is consistent in depicting scattered
showers/thunderstorms to be ongoing Friday morning from parts
of the central Appalachians southward into the Carolinas and
northeast Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the convection, moisture
advection via moderate southerly low-level flow will contribute
to dewpoints ranging from the lower-mid 60s in the Northeast,
to the upper 60s to lower 70s from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity
and south. Diurnal heating will yield 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from
the Mid-Atlantic states southward into coastal SC. An extensive
broken squall line (linear clusters and transient supercells)
will likely develop during the afternoon into the early evening.
Ample deep-layer shear for storm organization will exist from
the Canadian border southward into the Mid-Atlantic states with
30-50 kt effective shear forecast. Weaker flow is progged farther
south (20-30 kt effective shear) but organized multicells will
be possible. Isolated large hail could accompany the stronger
cells. The concentration of 50-65 mph gusts and wind damage will
probably be highest in the Mid-Atlantic/Chesapeake Bay vicinity.
There, forecast hodographs and moist low levels will conditionally
yield a several-hour period favorable for storm-scale rotation
(supercellular or QLCS) and an associated risk for a few tornadoes.
This activity will likely weaken during the evening.
...MT/WY into western Dakotas... A series of weak mid-level
disturbances is forecast to move quickly east across the northern
Rockies into the northern Great Plains. As a result, an area of
low pressure will likely develop over the western Dakotas by late
afternoon. A marginally moist boundary layer beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will yield 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by late afternoon.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop
during the late afternoon/early evening. Isolated severe gusts
and hail may accompany the stronger storms.
..Smith.. 05/26/2022
Read more
Thu, 26 May 2022 05:39:52 +0000
SPC May 26, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241
AM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms
are possible for the north-central Great Plains and into the Upper
Midwest. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary severe hazards.
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough initially over the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states will exit the East Coast by early
evening before moving into the Canadian maritime provinces.
A flattened upstream mid-level ridge is forecast over the central
U.S. while a large-scale trough moves into the Interior West.
...North-central Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Southwesterly
mid-level flow will feature a series of impulses moving northeast
from the north-central Rockies into the Upper Midwest. A lee
trough over the High Plains will invoke southerly low-level flow
and thereby aid in transporting a gradual increase in moisture
northward from the southern Great Plains into the Dakotas during
the day. A strong EML and associated capping inversion will likely
limit thunderstorm activity until the late afternoon when CINH is
substantially reduced. It seems plausible isolated thunderstorms
will develop at least initially near the Black Hills and perhaps
along the lee trough/dryline and spread eastward into SD during
the early evening. Models hint at a weak mid-level disturbance
moving east-northeastward into western SD/NE by early evening.
An intensifying LLJ over the central Great Plains will develop
after dark. Strengthening WAA/isentropic lift may lead to a cluster
or MCS developing near the terminus of the LLJ during the evening
into the overnight over parts of the mid MO Valley. Large hail
and severe gusts will be the primary threats with this activity.
...New England... Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints
will likely yield 250-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon. A frontal
segment will move east across the region during the afternoon and
provide a focus for isolated-scattered thunderstorm development.
A couple of locally intense multicells may yield wind damage or
marginally severe hail for a few hours before diminishing.
..Smith.. 05/26/2022
Read more
Thu, 26 May 2022 07:44:06 +0000
SPC May 26, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION... A more active upper-air pattern for severe
weather appears increasingly probable over the central and northern
Great Plains into the Upper Midwest during the weekend into early
next week. Medium-range model guidance is converging towards a
scenario of a large-scale trough over the Interior West while a
mid-level anticyclone is centered near the southern Appalachians.
A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over
the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest with a reloading
of severe-weather potential. Models indicate a stout elevated
mixed layer and increasingly rich moisture will yield large to
extreme buoyancy, especially by Memorial Day (Monday, day 5)
along the dryline. A nocturnal intensification of the LLJ will
favor MCS development near the terminus of this feature and near a
surface front. Confidence is increasing in significant severe for
both Sunday and Monday for parts of the central and northern Great
Plains into the Upper Midwest. By Tuesday (day 6), model spread
in the spatial locations of the large-scale upper features lends
a predictability-too-low highlight for now. The pattern becomes
less clear towards the end of the extended period.
Read more
Thu, 26 May 2022 08:56:57 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely this
afternoon across northwestern to southern Nevada. Early-morning
water vapor imagery reveals an upper-level wave approaching the
Pacific Northwest. Surface pressure falls across the northern Great
Basin will induce south to southwesterly winds off the Sierra Nevada
and lower CO River Valley. Sustained winds between 15 to 20 mph are
expected by early afternoon based on ensemble guidance. However,
deep boundary-layer mixing will support frequent wind gusts between
25-35 mph, especially across central to southern NV where nearly
all solutions show the strongest low-level mass response. Downslope
effects, combined with antecedent dry conditions and diurnal warming,
will support RH reductions into the 10-15% range across much of the
region. Consequently, elevated (to briefly critical) fire weather
conditions appear likely, including across far western NV where
several lightning strikes were noted Wednesday afternoon.
...Dry Thunderstorms... The approaching upper low will also support
the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms by late
afternoon across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern
Great Basin. Observed 00 UTC soundings show an increase in column
precipitable water over the region, but values remain near 0.3 to
0.5 inches. Continued moistening is expected, but PWATs will likely
remain near 0.5 to 0.75 across NV and will support a dry-lightning
threat. While the probability for thunderstorms is highest across
portions of OR, WA, and ID, a few dry thunderstorms are possible
across central to northern NV. An isolated dry-thunderstorm risk
area is introduced where confidence in thunderstorms overlapping
with critically dry fuels is highest.
..Moore.. 05/26/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 26 May 2022 06:09:29 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis... Increasing west to southwest winds across parts of
the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and Four Corners will lead
to a broad swath of fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. The
upper-level wave currently approaching the Pacific Northwest
is forecast to translate into the northern Rockies by late
Friday. Falling heights aloft will support modest surface pressure
falls over the inter-mountain West, resulting in a broad low-level
mass response from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners
and Southwest. Ensemble guidance and deterministic solutions
generally suggest that 15-20 mph winds will be common across
this region. Drier/windier solutions indicate that areas of 20-25
mph winds are possible, but considerable spread in deterministic
solutions introduces uncertainty regarding the exact placement
and coverage of the strongest winds. Strong mid and upper-level
winds will largely be displaced to the north of the region, which
further limits confidence on where the windiest corridors will be
established within the risk area.
Nonetheless, dry conditions will prevail with 10-15% RH values
expected by late afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are
likely, and a few corridors of critical conditions are possible.
Similar wind/RH conditions are possible across much of the southern
High Plains as well, but widespread rainfall over the past few
days has mitigated fuel status for the time being. Fuel trends
will be monitored for a possible expansion, but Friday's warm/dry
conditions will likely begin the drying process for most locations
as temperatures rebound into the 90s.
..Moore.. 05/26/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 26 May 2022 06:51:26 +0000
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