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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.06.22 11:41z 370 Lines 17882 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7976_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-MAY22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 220527/1631Z 7976@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 27 May 2022
09:02:01 +0000 Fri, 27 May 2022 09:02:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri May 27 09:02:01 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Fri May 27 09:02:01 UTC 2022.
Fri, 27 May 2022 09:01:06 +0000
SPC MD 932 MD 0932 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SC...CENTRAL NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0932 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Areas affected...Central/Southern SC...Central NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270900Z - 271100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado are possible this morning across the
Carolinas.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms
increasing in coverage ahead of a lobe of ascent rounding the
upper low centered back west over the Lower OH Valley. The air mass
preceding this ascent is characterized by temperatures and dewpoints
in the low 70s and moderate buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimated
MLCAPE ranges from 500 to 1000 J/kg across the region. Low-level
winds are rather weak, but moderate low to mid-level flow is still
strong enough to support effective bulk shear around 40-45 kt. This
vertical shear is sufficient for organized updrafts, and a few
stronger/more organized storms are possible this morning. Primary
threat with any stronger storms would be damaging wind gusts,
although a brief tornado may occur as well. Overall severe coverage
will likely be limited, but convective trends will be monitored
closely.
..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 32718071 33148120 35128131 35928089 36167982 35737941
35087920 34017904 33317936 32808010 32718071
Read more
Fri, 27 May 2022 09:01:03 +0000
SPC May 27, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for
wind damage and possibly a couple tornadoes are expected to develop
today from the Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Severe wind
gusts will also be possible in parts of the northern High Plains.
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/New York/New England... An upper-level low
will move east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of
the system, flow will be southwesterly at mid-levels across much to
the Eastern U.S. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop to
the east of the Appalachian crest today, as moisture advection takes
place to the east of the trough. Surface dewpoints should be mostly
in the mid to upper 60s F from the eastern Carolinas northward into
the Mid-Atlantic. Elevated storms or bands of rain may be ongoing
at the start of the period along some sections of the Eastern
Seaboard. Areas that remain somewhat clear of morning convection,
should be able to heat up sufficiently for moderate destabilization.
The latest model forecasts develop two corridors of moderate
instability by midday. The first is forecast in eastern Virginia
and Maryland, with the second located from southeast Georgia to
central North Carolina. These two corridors will likely be favorable
for isolated damaging wind gusts associated with multicell line
segments. Supercells will also be possible, mainly from north-central
North Carolina northward into southeastern Pennsylvania, where strong
deep-layer shear will be present. A low-level jet of approximately 35
to 45 knots is forecast to move across Virginia during the day. This
should increase low-level shear enough for a tornado threat with
any supercells that can develop. The tornado threat could extend
north-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic near the axis of the
stronger low-level flow.
Further north-northeast into New York and northern New England, an
axis of weak instability will develop during the day. Surface heating
and strong large-scale ascent, associated with the approaching
system, will be favorable for thunderstorm development in the central
and northern Appalachians. Some of the storms will move eastward into
the lower elevations during the early afternoon, where instability
could a bit greater. Also, strong deep-layer shear could offset the
weak instability enough for a marginal wind-damage threat in areas
that heat up sufficiently. Storms that interact with a warm front
in northern New England may also have a marginal wind-damage threat.
...Northern High Plains... A shortwave ridge will move eastward
today across the northern Plains, as west-southwesterly flow at
mid-levels becomes established over the Intermountain West. Within
this flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
east-northeastward toward the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon ahead of the shortwave
trough, in an area of weak destabilization from northern Wyoming
into southeastern Montana. As this convection moves eastward and
grows upscale, a wind-damage threat is expected to develop. The
line segment should be relatively fast-moving, affecting parts
of southeast Montana, southwest North Dakota and northwest South
Dakota by late afternoon. Although somewhat conditional, a few
very strong wind gusts of greater than 65 knots could accompany the
strongest part of the line segment. The threat could impact parts
of the central Dakotas, before weakening during the early evening
as instability decreases across the region.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/27/2022
Read more
Fri, 27 May 2022 06:00:15 +0000
SPC May 27, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
for the Nebraska Sandhills and South Dakota. Large hail and severe
gusts are the primary severe hazards.
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough initially over NY/PA will move
east to the New England coast by early evening before exiting into
the Gulf of St. Lawrence. A flattened upstream mid-level ridge
is forecast over the central U.S. while a large-scale trough moves
into the Interior West by early Sunday morning.
...North-central Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Southwesterly
mid-level flow will feature a series of impulses moving
northeast from the north-central Rockies into the Upper Midwest.
Models are showing a lee trough/dryline over the High Plains and
are consistent in showing a weak disturbance moving into the NE
Panhandle/Black Hills vicinity by late afternoon/early evening.
Although low-level moisture will be limited initially, a gradually
moistening boundary layer and strong heating will likely lead
to isolated storms developing by the late afternoon in eastern
WY/western SD, and perhaps farther south on a more isolated basis
into west-central NE. An intensifying LLJ over the central Great
Plains will develop after dark. It appears increasingly possible
that a linear cluster develops during the evening and moves east
over SD. The very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, coupled with a
linear mode, and explicit model guidance (00z/27 NAM, HRW-NSSL,
HRW-NAM nest) showing a rear-inflow jet structure/implied severe
gusts all combine to support a significant wind area. Large hail
and severe gusts will be the primary threats with this activity.
...Southwest TX into western OK... Strong heating along a
dryline will gradually weaken the cap by mid-late afternoon.
Localized erosion of the cap is possible from southwest TX through
the Caprock regions. Very steep lapse rates and deep-layer shear
sufficient for organized multicells, will support a risk for severe
gusts and large hail. This activity will dissipate by mid evening.
...New England... Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints
will likely yield 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon.
Convection-allowing model consensus indicates storms will
preferentially develop along a frontal segment during the afternoon.
A couple of locally intense multicells may yield wind damage or
marginally severe hail for a few hours before diminishing.
..Smith.. 05/27/2022
Read more
Fri, 27 May 2022 06:02:58 +0000
SPC May 27, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234
AM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely over
Nebraska northeastward into Minnesota on Sunday and Sunday
night. Significant severe weather including very large hail and
hurricane-force gusts are possible with the strongest storms.
Several tornadoes are also possible.
...Synopsis... The exit region of a powerful, cyclonically curved
upper jet is forecast to overspread the central High Plains into
the mid MO Valley during the period as a large-scale mid-level
trough encompasses the West. A mid-level anticyclone will reside
over the Carolinas. In the low levels, a surface front perhaps
augmented by convection is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest
southwestward to a triple point near the northwest KS/NE border.
A dryline will extend southward into the southern Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... A strong to
severe thunderstorm cluster may be ongoing early Sunday morning over
parts of the eastern Dakotas where strong 850 mb theta-e advection
is forecast. Isolated hail/wind would be the primary threats with
this elevated activity. Farther south, strong southerly flow will
aid in moisture transport northward into the mid MO Valley and Upper
Midwest. Strong heating, contributing to evapotranspiration beneath
a stout capping inversion associated with an elevated mixed layer,
will yield a very unstable airmass (3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) over
parts of NE northeastward into adjacent SD/IA/MN. Forecast soundings
show some low-level veering and strengthening of winds with height,
strongly supporting supercells with initial storm development during
the late afternoon/early evening. Large to very large hail is likely
with the more intense supercells. Tornadoes are also possible,
especially in warm-sector areas early on where temperature-dewpoint
depressions are not too large (less than 20 deg F). An evolution
towards clusters is expected during the evening as a central Great
Plains LLJ intensifies. A lingering threat for hail/wind will
probably continue through the evening into the overnight.
..Smith.. 05/27/2022
Read more
Fri, 27 May 2022 07:37:06 +0000
SPC May 27, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Memorial Day,
Monday (day 4), as a large-scale trough remains centered over the
central Rockies, with a belt of very strong cyclonically curved flow
extending through the base of the trough over the southern Rockies
and into the central Great Plains/Upper Midwest. A moisture-rich
airmass will become moderately to extremely unstable from the
central Great Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
capable of hail/tornadoes are possible, especially along/east of
the dryline and perhaps near an occluding surface cyclone over
the Dakotas. Significant severe gusts will also be possible with
an MCS potentially evolving after dark over the central Great Plains.
By Tuesday (day 5), uncertainties associated with Monday's
thunderstorm activity coupled with some model spread result in
predictability concerns. Nonetheless, severe potential could
extend from parts of the southern High Plains northeastward into
the western Great Lakes.
Medium-range guidance exhibits larger spread during the mid to
late part of the extended range as the primary belt of westerlies
weakens and becomes less predictable.
Read more
Fri, 27 May 2022 08:38:00 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...
...Synopsis... In the mid levels, moderate southwesterly flow is
forecast to overspread much of the Great Basin and Southwestern US
through Friday and into early Saturday. A subtle shortwave trough
within the flow is forecast to move across the southern Great Basin,
reaching the central Rockies late this evening. A weak surface cold
front associated with the wave will move east, enhancing low-level
winds along and to its south. This stronger surface flow, along with
warm and dry surface conditions, will support widespread elevated
and critical fire weather conditions across much of the Southwest.
...Southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern High Plains...
Beneath the strengthening southwesterly flow aloft, warm and
dry conditions are forecast across much of the Desert Southwest
and southern High Plains. 15-20 mph surface winds are expected
to overlap with afternoon humidity values below 15%, supporting
widespread elevated to locally critical conditions across portions
of the southern High Plains, much of NM and into the Four Corners.
Farther to the north and west, stronger mid-level flow beneath the
passing shortwave will likely enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph
south of the weak cold front across southern NV and southwestern UT.
Here, the stronger surface winds and similar/15% surface humidity
will support sustained critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the southern Great Basin where fuels are quite dry.
..Lyons.. 05/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 27 May 2022 06:51:28 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS....
...Synopsis... Moderate southwesterly flow already established over
much of the Great Basin and Southwest is forecast to intensify ahead
of a stronger trough and mid-level jet streak moving onshore across
the West Coast Saturday. At the surface, ascent from the approaching
trough will intensify a pair of surface cyclones across the southern
Great Basin and lee of the central Rockies respectively. Enhanced by
the deepening lows and strong flow aloft, surface winds across much
of the Great Basin, Southwest and southern High Plains will likely
reach 20-30 mph. In combination with surface humidity below 15% and
dry fuels, widespread critical fire weather conditions appear likely.
...Southwest and Four Corners... By mid morning, low-level
southwesterly winds are forecast to increase across much of the
Southwest and southern Great Basin. This trend should continue
through the afternoon in response to the deepening surface cyclone
and approaching mid-level trough. Area model soundings show deep and
well-mixed profiles, with 20-30 mph surface winds and humidity below
10% through much of the afternoon and into the early evening. With
ongoing drought, abundant dry fuels will support widespread critical
fire weather concerns. Localized pockets of sub 10% RH and winds near
30 mph may also support localized extremely critical conditions for
a couple of hours across portions of eastern NM and the Four Corners.
...Southern High Plains... Farther to the east across the southern
High Plains, strong southwesterly winds and downsloping flow are
expected to increase south of the strengthening lee low. Widespread
winds of 20-25 mph appear possible along with warm temperatures and
afternoon humidity of 8-15%. While meteorological conditions appear
quite conducive to widespread fire weather concerns, considerable
uncertainty exists in the state of area fuels after multiple days
of moderate to heavy rain. Though some drying is forecast to take
place, it remains unclear if fuels will support critical concerns
at this time. Additional expansion of the Elevated/Critical Risk
areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks should greater confidence
in critical fuels develop.
..Lyons.. 05/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 27 May 2022 06:59:27 +0000
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