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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.04.19 07:05z 273 Lines 13883 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21971_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 04
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 190419/0700Z 21971@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 86 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 190530Z - 191300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 86 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle
Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday morning from 1230 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense
tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A mixed mode of storms are expected to increase overnight
and generally move northeastward across the region as overall
conditions become more favorable for severe thunderstorms. This
includes the potential for damaging winds along with tornadoes,
one or two of which could be strong.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles south southwest of Panama City
FL to 60 miles northeast of Troy AL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 85...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 23030.
...Guyer
WW 85 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 190020Z - 190700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 85 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM EDT Thu Apr
18 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama Western
Georgia
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 820 PM
until 300 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of intense showers and thunderstorms will track
eastward across the watch area this evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast
of Huntsville AL to 50 miles south southeast of Columbus GA. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 83...WW 84...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035.
...Hart
WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE GZH TO
15 NNE MGM.
..GOSS..04/19/19
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-081-087-101-
109-113-190740-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER COFFEE
CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE
MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL
FLC005-013-033-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-091-113-129-131-133-
190740-
FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON
LEON LIBERTY OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WAKULLA
WALTON WASHINGTON
WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ABY TO
40 NNE ABY TO 25 E CSG TO 15 E CSG TO 20 ESE LGC TO 10 SW LGC TO
20 SSW LGC TO 10 NNW AUO TO 20 NNE LGC TO 15 SSE ATL.
..GOSS..04/19/19
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC035-079-171-193-199-207-231-255-263-269-285-293-190740-
GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTS CRAWFORD LAMAR MACON
MERIWETHER MONROE PIKE SPALDING
TALBOT TAYLOR TROUP UPSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PIB TO
30 NNW GZH TO 15 NW TOI.
WW 84 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190400Z.
..DEAN..04/19/19
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 84
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-109-129-190400-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CLARKE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE PIKE WASHINGTON
FLC033-091-113-190400-
FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-190400-
CW
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN
OK 0316 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States
this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS... Southern and central Mississippi Southern and
central Alabama Southeastern Louisiana The Florida Panhandle
* HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Widespread damaging winds
* SUMMARY... Several tornadoes (a few significant) and scattered
to widespread damaging winds are possible through tonight across
the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States.
Preparedness actions...
Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are
usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather
Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A
tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to
form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued
for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
..Gleason.. 04/18/2019
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential
for producing damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected
across much of the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region,
particularly across the Carolinas into southern Virginia late this
afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis... Large-scale upper trough amplification is underway
across the Mississippi Valley vicinity, with a significant embedded
short wave impulse forecast to continue digging into and through
its base over the central Gulf Coast states by 12Z this morning.
Models suggest that associated forcing for upward vertical motion
will support lower/mid tropospheric cyclogenesis across northern
portions of the central Gulf Coast states into the Cumberland
Plateau/upper Tennessee Valley by late this evening. At the surface,
the primary low may gradually become centered across the central
through southern Appalachians vicinity before beginning to occlude
by the end of the period.
Within the warm sector of the cyclone, across much of the southern
through mid Atlantic Coast region, models indicate considerable
strengthening of southerly lower through mid tropospheric wind
fields, including to 50-70+ kt within the 850 to 700 mb layer.
It appears this will coincide with an influx of moisture off the Gulf
of Mexico, as well as off the western Atlantic. This is expected to
contribute to weak to moderate boundary layer destabilization ahead
of a cold front, which is forecast to surge eastward toward the south
Atlantic coast by early afternoon, before advancing offshore and
northeastward through the Mid Atlantic Coast region by late tonight.
This environment is expected to become conducive to considerable
organized severe thunderstorm development, accompanied by the risk
for strong, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
Beneath the mid-level cold core of the evolving system, scattered
thunderstorm activity is also possible across parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley vicinity late this afternoon and evening.
Additional, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm activity
is possible ahead of a cold front advancing into the northern
intermountain region and northern Rockies.
...Southern through Mid Atlantic Coast region... There appears
a substantial signal in model output, supported by current
observations, that large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the
eastward advancing cold front may contribute to an evolving squall
line across parts of northern/western Georgia into the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico by 12Z this morning. The extent of inland boundary
layer destabilization ahead of this activity, at least initially,
remains unclear. However, coupled with insolation, boundary layer
moistening is expected to support sufficient destabilization within
the inflow region of the storms to support a gradual increase
in intensity through midday, while activity advances toward the
Savannah River, Georgia Atlantic coast, and Florida Gulf coast (near
and north of Tampa Bay). Given the strength of the environmental
wind fields, and the organizing convection, this likely will be
accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts.
At the same time, guidance is suggestive that an influx of boundary
layer moisture across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont
may be accompanied by moderate boundary layer destabilization
(including CAPE up to 1500 J/kg). In the presence of forcing
for ascent aided by low-level warm advection, the initiation of
discrete storms appears possible, perhaps including a few supercells
accompanied by a risk for tornadoes.
The discrete storms may persist and spread north-northeastward into
Virginia, as the northern flank of the upstream squall line advances
northeastward. In the presence of the aforementioned strong (and
strengthening) lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, near the mid-level
inflection point between the downstream ridge and upstream trough,
there appears potential for further upscale growth and acceleration
of convection across the Carolinas into southern Virginia during the
peak late afternoon instability. Given ambient mean wind fields
near 50 kt, severe convective gusts may become fairly widespread,
with a few peak gusts in excess of 65 kt also seeming probable.
While damaging wind gusts appear the main threat with the
northeastward and eastward advancing line of storms, a few embedded
tornadoes may also be possible.
..Kerr/Dean.. 04/19/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234
AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the
CONUS on Saturday or Saturday night.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move across the eastern
states on Saturday as a surface low moves northward into the
lower Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will be possible to the east
of the low across parts of eastern New York and southern New
England. Instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat
in those locations. In the western U.S., an upper-level trough
is forecast to move to near the coast of California with a lead
shortwave trough moving into the southern Rockies. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon from near the west coast trough
eastward to ahead of the southern Rockies shortwave trough. These
storms are also expected to remain below severe limits due to
weak instability.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Broyles.. 04/19/2019
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