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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.06.22 11:42z 276 Lines 12557 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8278_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03-JUN22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VK6HGR<VK7AX<VK2IO<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 220603/1631Z 8278@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 03 Jun 2022
07:56:01 +0000 Fri, 03 Jun 2022 07:56:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 3 07:56:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 3 07:56:02 UTC 2022.
Fri, 03 Jun 2022 07:55:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Jun 3 07:56:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun
3 07:56:02 UTC 2022. Fri, 03 Jun 2022 07:55:05 +0000
SPC Jun 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229
AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
late Friday afternoon through evening over parts of the southern
High Plains. A low-end severe risk may also develop into Saturday
morning across far southern Florida.
...Synopsis... Modest west/northwest flow aloft will exist over the
Rockies and Plains, with an upper low over Manitoba and Ontario. A
plume of mid 50s F dewpoints will surge north into the central High
Plains during the day, with 60s F into west TX. Daytime heating
and cool temperatures aloft will result in an unstable air mass
from eastern WY southward to west TX, resulting in scattered severe
storms during the afternoon and evening.
...Central and Southern High Plains northward Montana... Storms are
expected to form by 21Z from southeast WY down the Front Range
and into eastern NM as a weak disturbance aloft moves out of the
Great Basin. Lapse rates will be quite steep, with deep-layer shear
averaging near 35 kt. Individual cells may produce severe hail,
and isolated reports near 2.00" diameter will be possible over NM
and TX. Clustering of storms is then possible through evening as
a southeasterly low-level jet develops and storms shift into lower
elevations. Damaging winds would then be the primary concern.
Other storms are expected to form late afternoon across the higher
terrain of southwest MT, expanding east/southeast toward the Black
Hills. This will occur beneath minor shortwave ridging and with
modest northwest flow aloft. A few severe wind gusts may occur.
...Southeast... A weak upper trough will move east across the
Southeast today, providing moistening midlevels and minimal cooling
aloft. Strong heating will occur across GA and the Carolinas, with
a weak surface trough/convergence zone developing. Scattered storms
are likely by 21Z from northern GA and SC into eastern NC. Shear
will be weak, but favorable instability within a focused zone may
result in pulse and multicell severe during the afternoon. Localized
wind damage and marginal hail may occur.
...South FL... A developing tropical cyclone is forecast to move
northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and should be
nearing the southwestern coast of FL on Saturday. The strongest/most
concentrated convection is expected to remain offshore, but bands of
storms may arc eastward, affecting south FL prior to 12Z Saturday.
As such, will maintain low probabilities for a brief TC tornado
as the mid 70s F dewpoints spread north along with increasing
low-level shear.
..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/03/2022
Read more
Fri, 03 Jun 2022 05:33:08 +0000
SPC Jun 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251
AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible near
the Texas-Oklahoma border northward into the central Great Plains
on Saturday. A marginal risk for a tornado or two may develop over
central and southern Florida.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding organized severe potential
on Saturday across parts of the central/southern Plains, mainly
related to convective coverage and location. Forecast guidance
continues to indicate some potential for morning convection
ongoing somewhere across KS or OK as a midlevel shortwave trough
migrates across the region early. Should this activity occur,
an outflow boundary may extend across portions of the southern
Plains by afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will transport low
60s dewpoints northward into KS and southeast NE, while mid/upper
60s dewpoints reside across north TX and OK and as far west as the
eastern OK/TX Panhandles. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
also will reside across the Plains, contributing to moderate to
strong destabilization by afternoon.
Another weak midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to migrate east
across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening and could
provide enough forcing for isolated thunderstorm development along
the dryline extending from western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles.
Additional storms could develop along a southward-advancing cold
front over NE during the afternoon and shift southward into KS by
evening. Deep-layer flow will remain rather weak and large-scale
ascent modest, so confidence in where storms will develop and storm
coverage remains low. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass,
coupled with adequate effective shear given vertically veering wind
profiles, will support at least isolated strong to severe storms
capable of damaging gusts and hail. Given uncertainty, the Marginal
risk will be maintained, though a Slight risk may become necessary
in later outlooks.
...Central/Southern FL...
While forecast track guidance regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone
One has come into somewhat better agreement since yesterday, some
uncertainty still exists. However, current thinking is this system
will track across the central or southern FL Peninsula on Saturday.
Ahead of the low pressure center, a very moist airmass will be in
place with mid 70s surface dewpoints expected, though modest heating
will likely limit low-level lapse rates and instability. Favorable
shear profiles will support rotation in any supercells that develop
in outer bands or within mesovorticies near the low center, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible. For latest tropical cyclone
forecast track and intensity information, refer to the National
Hurricane Center official guidance.
..Leitman.. 06/03/2022
Read more
Fri, 03 Jun 2022 05:54:58 +0000
SPC Jun 3, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223
AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms may develop over portions
of the central Plains into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas
on Sunday.
...Central Plains into western MO/AR...
The large-scale upper pattern will become quasi-zonal across the
western U.S. into the Plains on Day 3/Sunday. However, most guidance
depicts a weak midlevel shortwave impulse migrating across the
central/southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity. Southerly low-level
flow will maintain a very moist arimass from the Sabine Valley
into KS/MO beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will allow for
moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the shortwave impulse.
Deep-layer flow will remain rather weak, but southerly low-level
flow becoming northwesterly in the mid/upper levels will support
25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Given expected weak large-scale
ascent, some uncertainty exists regarding the degree of convective
coverage and also where storms may develop. However, deterministic,
ensemble and machine learning guidance suggest the best chance for
storm clusters or an MCS developing will be across eastern portions
of KS/OK, spreading east/southeast into portions of the Ozarks.
Locally strong gusts and hail will be the most likely hazard with
this activity from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of southern NE and western KS near the intersection of a surface
dryline and a quasi-stationary west to east oriented surface
boundary over NE. Forecast soundings indicated a deeply mixed
boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud layer profiles amid steep
lapse rates and moderate instability. These storms could produce
strong outflow winds and hail.
..Leitman.. 06/03/2022
Read more
Fri, 03 Jun 2022 07:25:07 +0000
SPC Jun 3, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION... The overall large-scale mid/upper level pattern
will become quasi-zonal over the west with developing northwesterly
flow spreading over the Plains to central U.S. as a trough is
maintained across the eastern states. A large reservoir of low-level
moisture will be maintained from the central/southern Plains eastward
to the MS Valley vicinity. Daily rounds of thunderstorms along
parts of the central/southern High Plains, perhaps developing into
MCSs spreading east across KS/OK/TX appear likely nearly every day
during the extended period. Given a moist/unstable airmass and at
least modest shear, some threat for strong to severe convection is
possible over the Plains. However, given several rounds of convection
are possible both in the short term and through the extended, the
location of greater severe potential each day is somewhat uncertain,
precluding probabilities at this time.
Read more
Fri, 03 Jun 2022 07:56:01 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and modest
west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin,
favoring the development of a weak surface low over the area.
...Southwest... Along the southern periphery of the weak surface
low, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds near 15 mph will
develop amid 10-15 percent minimum RH during the afternoon. This
could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across
parts of the Southwest, though the lack of a tighter surface
pressure gradient and only modest flow through the boundary layer
casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. Therefore,
no highlights have been added at this time.
..Weinman.. 06/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 03 Jun 2022 07:01:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis... Zonal midlevel flow will be in place across the
western CONUS, while a weak area of surface low pressure persists
over parts of the Great Basin.
...Southwest... A dry airmass will remain in place across the
Southwest, where widespread 10-15 percent RH will develop during the
afternoon. While breezy west-southwesterly surface winds of 15-20
mph coupled with the dry boundary layer conditions could support
elevated conditions, these conditions should generally be confined to
terrain-favored areas -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time.
..Weinman.. 06/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 03 Jun 2022 07:02:27 +0000
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