| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 11.06.22 23:40z 298 Lines 14275 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8654_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220611/1631Z 8654@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 11 Jun 2022
09:47:01 +0000 Sat, 11 Jun 2022 09:47:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 11 09:47:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sat Jun 11 09:47:01 UTC 2022. Sat, 11
Jun 2022 09:46:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Jun 11 09:47:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 11
09:47:01 UTC 2022. Sat, 11 Jun 2022 09:46:04 +0000
SPC Jun 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Sunday across
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear
possible for parts of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic, and the interior Northwest.
...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
An upper trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS on
Sunday, while an upper ridge remains centered over the
southern/central Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley. Low-level
moisture is forecast to return northward across the central/northern
Plains through the day along and east of a dryline/lee trough, and as
a surface low deepens over central/eastern WY. Thunderstorms should
form along the length of the lee trough from southeastern MT to
eastern CO/western KS by late Sunday afternoon as large-scale ascent
preceding the upper trough overspreads these regions and as diurnal
heating erodes a substantial cap.
Moderate to locally strong instability should be present across the
warm sector by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse
rates contributing to substantial buoyancy. Deep-layer shear should be
strongest across the northern High Plains where a mid-level jet will
be present. Initial supercell thunderstorms should pose a threat for
both large hail and severe wind gusts as they spread eastward across
the northern Plains through late Sunday evening. A tornado or two also
appears possible as convection encounters greater low-level moisture
and increasing low-level shear Sunday evening, mainly across parts of
western SD. Farther south into the central Plains, deep-layer shear is
forecast to be a bit weaker. Still, enough shear should be present in
tandem with moderate to strong instability for modest updraft
organization. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates should support severe
downdraft winds with multicell clusters. Some hail also appears
possible.
In tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet, some potential
exists for upscale growth into an MCS or multiple small bowing
clusters Sunday evening/night across NE and SD. If this occurs, then
at least an isolated severe threat may persist for much of the night
across the northern/central Plains, and perhaps into parts of the
Upper Midwest. Isolated strong to severe convection may also occur
during the day along/east of a weak surface boundary from eastern ND
into parts of western MN. However, overall thunderstorm coverage
remains uncertain this far east Sunday afternoon/evening owing to
nebulous large-scale ascent.
...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
Neutral to rising mid-level heights are forecast over much of the
Midwest into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic as an upper ridge builds
slowly eastward, and as an upper trough lifts northward into New
England and Quebec. There is still a considerable amount of
uncertainty with where/if robust thunderstorms may develop Sunday
afternoon. A surface front draped from northern IL/IN into OH/PA may
serve as a focus for possible convective initiation. Eastern portions
of the Midwest into the OH Valley may have a slightly better chance
for thunderstorms, as a low-level temperature inversion/cap should be
weaker with eastward extent across these regions. Moderate to strong
instability will likely be in place along/south of the front Sunday
afternoon, as rich low-level moisture characterized by mid/upper 60s
to low/mid 70s surface dewpoints will be present. A belt of enhanced
west-northwesterly mid-level flow should also be in place on the
northern periphery of the upper ridge.
Given the degree of deep-layer shear forecast, any thunderstorms that
develop could become supercellular and pose an isolated threat for
severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Although low-level flow is not
expected to be overly strong, it may be sufficient for modest
low-level rotation and a brief tornado or two. Have opted to expand
the Marginal Risk across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic since
there is still large spread among model guidance with placement and
coverage of convection Sunday afternoon/evening. If a more focused
corridor of severe potential becomes evident, then greater severe
probabilities would be needed given the favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment.
...Interior Northwest...
Instability is expected to remain generally weak across interior
portions of the Northwest Sunday afternoon/evening owing to persistent
cloud cover associated with an upper trough. Still, most guidance
suggests enough instability will exist to support surface-based
convection. Strong deep-layer shear will be present over this region,
and organized multicells or low-topped supercells may develop and
spread northeastward through Sunday evening. Isolated instances of
marginally severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest
cores, with the limited instability likely precluding a greater severe
threat.
..Gleason.. 06/11/2022
Read more
Sat, 11 Jun 2022 06:04:14 +0000
SPC Jun 11, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM
CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday into Monday night
across parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms may also occur over portions of the Upper Midwest into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
...Northern Plains...
An upper trough encompassing much of the western CONUS should move
slowly eastward across the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains on Monday. At the surface, rich low-level moisture should
stream northward across the northern Plains to the east of a
front/dryline. Steep mid-level lapse rates and a strong cap will
likely inhibit surface-based thunderstorms across this region through
much of the day. Still, robust MUCAPE is forecast to develop through
Monday evening in a southwest to northeast corridor from western SD
into much of ND. There may be some chance for surface-based convection
across eastern ND Monday afternoon, but a better chance for intense
thunderstorm development should occur Monday evening/night farther
west as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
overspreads the northern High Plains. Even if convection remains
slightly elevated, the reservoir of substantial MUCAPE and strong
effective bulk shear will likely support severe thunderstorms capable
of producing both large hail and damaging winds as they spread
northeastward across SD/ND through the period.
...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
A surface warm front is forecast to lift northward through the day
across parts of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley. A very
moist low-level airmass will be in place to the south of this front.
Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from an EML, strong
to extreme instability will likely be present along/near this front.
Some guidance suggests elevated thunderstorms may occur generally to
the north of the front Monday afternoon/evening in a low-level warm
advection regime, with a threat for mainly isolated large hail. The
potential for surface-based convection along/south of the front is
less clear, as a cap and rising mid-level heights associated with an
upper ridge may inhibit convection across the much of the warm sector
through the day.
..Gleason.. 06/11/2022
Read more
Sat, 11 Jun 2022 07:32:20 +0000
SPC Jun 11, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358
AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough/low should move slowly east-northeastward across the
northern/central Plains and central Canada on Day 4/Tuesday. Moderate
to strong instability should develop across parts of the Upper Midwest
into the central Plains along/ahead of a front associated with the
upper trough. At this point, it appears that the better forcing aloft
will shift into Canada through the day, with minimal convective signal
along the front through early Tuesday evening. Still, if a clearer
signal in model guidance shows that convection will develop along the
front, then a 15% severe area may eventually be needed for some part
of these regions.
The upper trough/low is forecast to move little on Day 5/Wednesday.
An embedded shortwave trough may move across parts of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the day. It appears possible
that thunderstorms may form along/ahead of a surface front Wednesday
afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest into the
Great Lakes and central Plains. If they do, then forecast shear and
instability appear sufficient for organized severe convection.
However, there is too much uncertainty regarding the placement of the
front and potential corridor of severe thunderstorms to delineate a
15% severe area for Wednesday at this time.
As the upper trough/low moves eastward across central/eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes/Northeast on Day 6/Thursday and Day 7/Friday, some
severe risk may exist across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into New
England on both days. Uncertainty in the placement and evolution of
the upper trough and related surface features remains high at this
extended time frame, suggesting predictability remains low.
Read more
Sat, 11 Jun 2022 09:01:03 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146
AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern with a trough over the eastern CONUS and a
ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to deamplify throughout the
day, resulting in more zonal flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure
will predominate over the West with daytime heating amid a relatively
weak pressure gradient.
...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms...
Across portions of eastern Arizona, western New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon hours. Strong heating across the region will
likely result in isolated thunderstorm development over the higher
terrain. Given that these thunderstorms will develop in an
environment characterized by deep inverted-v profiles and PW values
less than 0.75 inches, little wetting rainfall is expected from these
storms.
...Elevated Fire Weather Conditions...
Despite relatively weak flow aloft across the region, very hot and dry
conditions will promote deep, well-mixed boundary layers that will
support sustained afternoon surface wind speeds around 15 mph. When
coupled with RH values in the single digits and ERC values generally
above the 90th percentile, elevated fire weather conditions are
likely.
..Jirak.. 06/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 11 Jun 2022 06:47:28 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147
AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move onto the West
Coast on Sunday. As a result, the flow aloft will increase
dramatically from the southwest in advance of the trough. In response
at the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central Great Basin,
increasing the pressure gradient.
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions...
Continued hot and dry conditions across much of the Southwest and
central Great Basin will lead to deep, well-mixed boundary layers on
Sunday afternoon. Downward transport of enhanced southwesterly flow
aloft will support sustained afternoon surface wind speeds of 20 mph
across the region. When coupled with afternoon surface RH values in
the single digits, critical fire weather conditions are likely across
portions of southern Utah/Nevada and northern Arizona.
...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible from southeastern Arizona
into south-central Colorado on Sunday. Very high-based thunderstorms
will be possible over favored terrain features through daytime
heating/destabilization. PW values around 0.5" and dry sub-cloud
layers will support precipitation evaporation and dry thunderstorm
potential.
..Jirak.. 06/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 11 Jun 2022 06:49:27 +0000
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
