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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.06.22 19:00z 393 Lines 19092 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8719_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 220612/1630Z 8719@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 12 Jun 2022
09:31:02 +0000 Sun, 12 Jun 2022 09:31:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 12 09:31:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sun Jun 12 09:31:02 UTC 2022. Sun, 12
Jun 2022 09:30:07 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Jun 12 09:31:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 12
09:31:02 UTC 2022. Sun, 12 Jun 2022 09:30:06 +0000
SPC Jun 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM
CDT Sun Jun 12 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across
the northern and central Plains, with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats. A few tornadoes could occur across the northern High
Plains region. Isolated severe may also be noted across the lower Ohio
Valley and parts of the southern middle Atlantic. Wind and hail are
the primary threats.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Upper ridge is forecast to shift across the northern/central Plains
into the MS Valley by the end of the period as an upper trough settles
into the Great Basin. While the ridge will shift east, appreciable
height falls are not expected to spread into the Plains Sunday. Even
so, a few short-wave troughs will eject across WY toward the northern
Plains and strengthening southwesterly flow will be noted, especially
late across MT/WY. This flow regime will prove favorable for lee
surface cyclone over eastern WY, with a lee trough extending into the
southern Plains. Easterly low-level component will maintain a moist
boundary layer along the MT/WY border at lower elevations and this
corridor will once again be a region for supercell intensification by
late afternoon. Strong heating will also contribute to isolated
supercells south along the dry line into the central High Plains.
Latest guidance suggests the lee surface low will get dislodged and
move into south-central SD/north-central NE by the end of the period,
along with associated convection that develops shortly after peak
heating. Ample shear/buoyancy will support supercells and along with
hail/wind, there appears to be a greater tornado risk across the
northern High Plains from northern WY into western SD.
...Lower Ohio Valley...
Remnants of Saturday night SD convection will likely spread into the
mid MO Valley by the start of the day1 period as northwesterly
mid-level flow continues across the Plains. Downstream, there appears
to be a weak short-wave trough that will likely encourage convective
development over the lower OH Valley by late morning. This activity
should evolve along the eastern fringe of stronger capping, and modest
shear/buoyancy should support organized updrafts. While there is some
uncertainty regarding exactly how this will ultimately evolve,
increasing severe probabilities appears warranted given the 40-50kt
500mb flow across this region. HREF members show quite a bit of
divergence regarding the evolution, but ample heating and the prospect
for large-scale support favor scattered strong/severe storms capable
of generating hail/wind.
...Southern Middle Atlantic...
Southern influence of eastern US trough will extend into the Carolinas
today. While shear is not forecast to be that strong, 30kt 500mb flow
modest instability should be adequate for a few robust updrafts. Have
focused higher severe probabilities across the southern middle
Atlantic where greater buoyancy and steeper lapse rates will coincide
with convective development. Gusty winds and perhaps some hail are the
greatest threats.
..Darrow/Dean.. 06/12/2022
Read more
Sun, 12 Jun 2022 05:49:17 +0000
SPC Jun 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM
CDT Sun Jun 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday across parts of
the northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes
all appear possible. Some of the winds could be significantly severe
(75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley Monday afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough initially over the western CONUS will move
slowly eastward across the Intermountain West on Monday, eventually
reaching the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains by late
Monday night. An upper-level ridge should persist over much of the MS
Valley into the Southeast, with another upper low forecast to remain
over Quebec. Enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow should be
present over parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic on the northeast side of the upper ridge.
At the surface, a lee cyclone should consolidate over the northern and
central High Plains by Monday evening, with another low over southern
Saskatchewan. Rich low-level moisture should return northward across
much of the northern Plains along/east of a front extending between
the two surface lows. A warm front is also expected to lift northward
across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and OH Valley through
the day, with a very moist low-level airmass present along/south of
the warm front.
...Northern Plains...
Modest mid-level height falls and ascent preceding an upper trough
should overspread parts of the northern Plains by Monday evening.
Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass to the east of a front
should encourage the development of moderate to strong instability by
late Monday afternoon across parts of western SD and vicinity. Strong
deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will easily support supercells with any
convection that can develop and persist. Most guidance suggests that
thunderstorms will initially develop by late Monday afternoon across
far northeastern WY/southeastern MT, and quickly strengthen as they
spread northeastward across western/central SD and ND Monday
evening/night.
The rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will
support a threat for both large hail and severe winds with supercells
as the dominant mode initially. Some of the hail could be very large
(2+ inches) across parts of western SD and vicinity Monday
afternoon/evening, as steep mid-level lapse rates and 2000-3000+ J/kg
of MLCAPE will likely be present. With time, some upscale growth into
a cluster may occur across ND Monday night as a cold front moves
eastward. Given the large amount of buoyancy forecast, damaging winds
and hail may continue to be a threat even if convection becomes
slightly elevated. A few tornadoes may also occur with any supercell,
mainly late Monday afternoon and early evening, across parts of
western SD into ND as low-level shear increases.
...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning
across parts of the Midwest (IA/MN and vicinity). This activity could
pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat as it moves eastward Monday
morning. There may be an MCV associated with this morning convection,
and some guidance also shows a corresponding mid-level vorticity
maximum and enhancement to the mid-level winds. Although details in
convective evolution remain unclear Monday afternoon, there is
increasing concern that redevelopment of intense thunderstorms could
occur with the MCV across parts of southern WI/northern IL into
southern Lower MI, IN, and OH. Strong to extreme instability (MLCAPE
3000-5500+ J/kg) will likely develop along/south of a warm front
across these areas. Low to mid 70s surface dewpoints, strong diurnal
heating, and steep mid-level lapse rates will all contribute to this
large reservoir of buoyancy. 35-45+ kt of deep-layer shear should also
be present with the enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly flow on the
northeastern periphery of the upper ridge.
This volatile environment will support significant severe potential
with any thunderstorms that can form along/south of the warm front.
At this point, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty with
where/if thunderstorms redevelop by Monday afternoon. Both global and
convection-allowing model guidance show large variability in possible
solutions, which range from little to no surface-based convective
redevelopment, to an intense, bowing MCS sweeping southeastward in a
narrow corridor across parts of the Midwest into the OH Valley through
Monday evening. Given these uncertainties, have opted to include
greater (15%) severe wind probabilities and add a significant severe
wind area where confidence in an MCS occurring is somewhat better.
Isolated large hail may occur with any embedded supercell. A few
tornadoes also appear possible, as low-level shear will be maximized
along and just south of the warm front.
If confidence in the MCS scenario occurring increases, then even
greater severe probabilities would likely be needed owing to the very
favorable thermodynamic environment. The eastern/southern extent of
the severe threat is also uncertain, so have expanded the Marginal
Risk across the OH Valley into the central Appalachians to account for
a broad range of possible tracks to the MCS before it eventually
weakens Monday night.
..Gleason.. 06/12/2022
Read more
Sun, 12 Jun 2022 06:01:57 +0000
SPC Jun 12, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM
CDT Sun Jun 12 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday over parts of the
northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Other strong to severe
thunderstorms appear possible for portions of the Mid-Atlantic into
the Carolinas.
...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
An upper trough/low over the northern Rockies/Plains and adjacent
parts of Canada should move slowly eastward on Tuesday. A surface low
over the northern Plains is forecast to develop northward into central
Canada through the day, with a cold front expected to sweep
east-southeastward across much of the northern/central Plains and
Upper Midwest before stalling Tuesday night.
Convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of ND
along/ahead of the cold front. Most guidance suggests that a
substantial cap will be in place ahead of the front, which may inhibit
robust thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. Still, the morning
convection should have access to fairly large MUCAPE. Strong
deep-layer shear should also promote organized updrafts. Isolated
large hail may occur with elevated thunderstorms Tuesday morning. All
severe hazards appear possible with any convection that can develop
along/ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon from eastern ND into
northwestern MN. But, overall coverage remains uncertain, as the
strongest large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low will
be shifting into Canada through the day, and as mid-level temperatures
are forecast to quickly warm.
Otherwise, additional thunderstorm development appears possible
Tuesday evening and night farther south/east across parts of the Upper
Midwest into the central Plains. This activity will likely be tied to
the cold front and increasing low-level warm advection. Forecast
instability and shear appear adequate for an isolated severe threat
with any thunderstorms that can form in this corridor.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning across some part of the
Mid-Atlantic, on the northeastern periphery of an upper ridge centered
over the Southeast, OH Valley, and Great Lakes. At least an isolated
threat for damaging winds may continue with this feature as it tracks
to the Atlantic Coast through the day, as diurnal heating of a moist
low-level airmass and some intrusion of an EML support moderate to
locally strong instability along/south of a warm front. Given the
large uncertainty with the placement/evolution of the possible MCS,
have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk for now extending
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas.
..Gleason.. 06/12/2022
Read more
Sun, 12 Jun 2022 07:32:29 +0000
SPC Jun 12, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352
AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough/low should progress eastward from the northern/central
Plains and central Canada to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Day
4/Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to return northward
ahead of a front across parts of the Upper Midwest by Wednesday
afternoon. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass and the presence of
modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in the development
of moderate instability in a fairly narrow corridor by peak afternoon
heating. Strengthening low/mid-level winds are also forecast through
the day as the upper trough/low advances eastward. Deep-layer shear
appears sufficiently strong to support organized updrafts, including
the potential for supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards.
Have introduced a 15% severe area for Wednesday across parts of the
Upper Midwest where confidence is greatest that robust thunderstorms
will develop along/ahead of the front.
An upper ridge centered over the eastern CONUS on Day 5/Thursday
should erode as the upper trough/low continues eastward across
central/eastern Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity. Some severe risk
may exist ahead of a cold front across parts of the Northeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and OH Valley Thursday afternoon. However, there is
currently too much uncertainty in the both the placement of the front
and the location of potentially robust convection to include any
severe areas for now. The southern portion of the upper trough may
impact parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast on Day 6/Friday,
but confidence is low that organized severe convection will develop
across these regions. Otherwise, a highly amplified upper ridge will
likely build over much of the central CONUS from late this week into
the upcoming weekend. Any severe potential on Day 7/Saturday and Day
8/Sunday would probably be confined to parts of the northern Plains,
where some guidance suggests an upper trough may attempt to impinge on
the upper ridge.
Read more
Sun, 12 Jun 2022 08:55:58 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206
AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST...
...Synopsis...
An upper trough is forecast to amplify and move eastward over the
western CONUS today. A surface low will deepen over the Great Basin,
as low-level southwesterly flow increases over much of the Southwest.
...Critical Wind/RH...
Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected across parts of the
Southwest into the Great Basin this afternoon. Sustained winds of
20-30 mph combined with minimum RH values of 5-15% will result in
critical fire-weather conditions across eastern NV into northern AZ
and central/southern UT. Fuels at higher elevations are still only
marginally favorable, but high-end critical conditions will still
support some fire-weather risk across those regions.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible from southeast AZ
into much of NM and south-central CO this afternoon and evening.
Coverage may be quite sparse, but any thunderstorms are likely to be
mostly dry and pose an ignition risk where receptive fuels are
available.
..Dean.. 06/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 12 Jun 2022 07:07:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208
AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR SOUTHEAST UT...PARTS OF
EASTERN AND WESTERN CO...NORTHERN AZ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM...
...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Monday. A surface low will deepen across the
High Plains during the day, with a surface trough extending
southwestward into the southern Great Basin. Strong southwesterly flow
will spread over much of the Southwest in conjunction with the upper
trough.
...Critical Wind/RH...
Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across a broad region of
the Southwest into the southern Rockies and parts of the High Plains
on Monday. The strongest surface winds and potentially extreme
fire-weather conditions are expected from northern AZ into southeast
UT and southwest CO, where sustained winds of 25-35 mph (with higher
gusts) are possible, in conjunction with minimum RH values below 10%.
Critical fire-weather conditions will also develop in the lee of the
Rockies into the High Plains, where sustained winds of 20-25 mph are
expected concurrent with RH values below 15%. Critical wind/RH will
develop east of the delineated Elevated and Critical areas, but recent
rainfall and greenup across the OK/TX Panhandles will constrain the
eastern extent of the wildfire-spread risk.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated dry thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of NM
Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage remains uncertain at this time,
but dry and deep subcloud layers and PW values generally in the
0.5-0.75 inch range will limit rainfall potential, with any lightning
activity posing a potential ignition risk.
..Dean.. 06/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 12 Jun 2022 07:09:27 +0000
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