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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.06.22 19:00z 386 Lines 19166 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8940_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220613/1630Z 8940@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 13 Jun 2022
09:04:02 +0000 Mon, 13 Jun 2022 09:04:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 13 09:04:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Mon Jun 13 09:04:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 13
Jun 2022 09:03:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Jun 13 09:04:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 13
09:04:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 13 Jun 2022 09:03:05 +0000
SPC Jun 13, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM
CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
UPPER-MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday across parts of
the northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes
all appear possible. Some of the winds could be significantly severe
(75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley Monday
afternoon/evening.
...Synopsis...
Ongoing convection within South Dakota is expected to continue
eastward this morning. Some form of this MCS/MCV is expected to reach
the western Wisconsin border sometime early in the period. A plume of
steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by regional soundings should
advect into the upper Midwest and support large buoyancy along a
surface boundary that will retreat northward as a warm front today.
Deep-layer shear along the periphery of a mid-level ridge will promote
40-50 kts of wind shear along/parallel to the boundary. Farther west,
in the northern Plains, a shortwave trough will continue to slowly
move eastward during the day. Scattered storm development is expected
by late in the afternoon as modest mid-level height falls begin.
...Upper-Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
Convection-allowing guidance continues produce a wide array of
solutions in terms of timing and location of a potential MCS tomorrow
morning into the afternoon. What is certain is that the environment
will be favorable for widespread damaging wind gusts where an MCS
ultimately develops. Low to mid-70s F dewpoints reside within the
mid-Missouri Valley into the lower Ohio Valley already and steep
mid-level lapse rates should move eastward over this low-level airmass
tomorrow. 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE is probable near the surface boundary
by afternoon. Deep layer shear will certainly favor storm
organization. The question will be where and when intensification of
convection will occur. Consideration was given to introducing a 30%
severe wind probability/Enhanced area, but confidence remains too low.
At least at present, portions of southeastern Wisconsin/northeastern
Illinois into southern lower Michigan and adjacent Indiana/Ohio appear
to have the greatest potential for greater damaging wind coverage.
Some wind gusts could be significantly severe. Large hail will be
possible and a couple of tornadoes could occur given the low-level
shear near the boundary.
Warm advection/moisture convergence within the axis of greatest
buoyancy may also lead to development of a cluster of storm in
central/southern Indiana. While MLCAPE could potentially exceed 4000
J/kg, deep-layer winds will be weaker this far south. Nevertheless,
some organized wind damage threat would exist if these storms form.
...Northern Plains...
Impacts from Sunday evenings convection and outflow complicate the
scenario in this region. Some moisture return is still expected to
occur as the surface low deepens with the advance of the trough.
Deep-layer shear will reach 40-50 kts, but also be roughly parallel to
the surface trough/cold front. With the low-level thermodynamics a bit
in question, the current thinking is that somewhat messy storm modes
will occur and storms may have some tendency to be elevated. By the
time greater forcing arrives, it will be late in the period. Stronger
destabilization is probable farther northeast, but the timing of when
storms arrive in eastern North Dakota will not be favorably timed with
the diurnal cycle. Even so, potential for large hail and perhaps some
locally damaging winds exists.
..Wendt/Weinman.. 06/13/2022
Read more
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 06:09:20 +0000
SPC Jun 13, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday over parts of the
northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest, with large hail the
main threat. Severe thunderstorms also appear possible mainly Tuesday
afternoon for portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, with
damaging winds the main concern.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low over the northwest CONUS and western Canada should
move slowly eastward on Tuesday, with a belt of enhanced mid-level
flow extending across much of the northern/central Plains into the
Upper Midwest. An upper ridge is forecast to build over the MS Valley,
Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Southeast through the day. A belt of
modestly enhanced mid-level northwesterly winds should be present on
the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge, extending over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and New England.
At the surface, a low initially over eastern ND/SD and western MN is
forecast to generally develop east-northeastward across the Upper
Midwest through the day. A cold front attendant to this low should
sweep east-southeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest and central
Plains through Tuesday evening before stalling across these regions
Tuesday night. A warm front should lift northward across portions of
the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The eastern extent of this front
across the Mid-Atlantic will likely serve as the northern limit for
any meaningful severe threat for this region.
...Northern Plains...
Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday
morning over parts of central/eastern ND and vicinity. This activity
will likely be elevated in nature, with various model soundings
showing a very strong cap across this area. Still, strong MUCAPE owing
to steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear
should continue to support updraft organization and some supercell
potential with any thunderstorms that persist across ND and
northwestern MN Tuesday morning. Isolated large hail should be the
main threat with this elevated convection, but a strong wind gust or
two may also occur. The better large-scale ascent associated with an
upper trough/low is forecast to shift into central Canada by Tuesday
afternoon, which should lessen the overall severe threat across the
northern Plains. Accordingly, additional robust convective development
along/ahead of an eastward-moving cold front appears very uncertain
and conditional Tuesday afternoon given the warm mid-level
temperatures and strong cap forecast to remain in place.
...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Warm mid-level temperatures and a stout cap will likely inhibit
thunderstorm development across much of the Upper Midwest and central
Plains through at least early Tuesday evening. As a
south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens across these areas by
mid to late Tuesday evening, the associated increase in low-level warm
advection may aid parcels in reaching their LFCs along parts of a cold
front that should be draped across these regions. The most likely area
for this initial convective development appears to be across parts of
KS/NE into far northwestern MO and IA. Moderate to locally strong
instability and adequate deep-layer shear should promote modest
thunderstorm organization with any cells that can strengthen and
persist. Most of this activity is forecast to develop and shift to the
cool side of the front fairly quickly. This suggests mostly elevated
clusters/marginal supercells capable of producing mainly isolated
large hail should be the main threat. Some severe risk may eventually
shift into parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night as convection
spreads northeastward.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A weakened carcass of an MCS with an embedded MCV will probably be
located over some part of the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic Tuesday morning. The airmass downstream of this morning
convection will likely be very moist, with most guidance suggesting
low to mid 70s surface dewpoints will be present over the coastal
plain of southeastern VA into the central/eastern Carolinas. The
eastern extent of an EML plume should also spread east of the
Appalachians and over these regions through Tuesday afternoon, with
associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Diurnal heating will quickly
act to destabilize this moist low-level airmass, and strong to very
strong instability (MLCAPE 3000-4000+ J/kg) may develop by Tuesday
afternoon. Most guidance also shows a subtle, low-amplitude mid-level
perturbation that will move southeastward across PA to the VA/MD/DE
vicinity through the day. Modestly enhanced mid-level
west-northwesterly flow associated with this feature should foster
moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear.
Primary uncertainty is if/where redevelopment occurs on the southern
flank of the remnant morning MCS. Various global and
convection-allowing model guidance show a wide range of possible
solutions. Still, eventual restrengthening on outflow emanating from
the morning MCS seems plausible across parts of southeastern VA and
central/eastern NC and vicinity given the very favorable thermodynamic
environment. Have added a Slight Risk for severe wind gusts across
these areas to account for this possibility, while also expanding the
Marginal Risk southward to include much of SC/GA in the event
additional robust, mainly multicell thunderstorm development occurs
farther south.
..Gleason.. 06/13/2022
Read more
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 06:11:11 +0000
SPC Jun 13, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM
CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of
the Upper Midwest into Upper Michigan. Large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible.
...Great Lakes into the Upper Midwest and Central Plains...
An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern
Plains and central Canada on Wednesday. Ahead of a related surface
cold front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place
from parts of IA northward into WI and vicinity by Wednesday
afternoon. Deep-layer shear across this region appears strong enough
to support organized convection, including the potential for
supercells. Thunderstorms will likely develop along/ahead of the front
Wednesday afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to
very large hail given the fairly steep mid-level lapse rates and large
buoyancy forecast. If convection can grow upscale into lines/clusters,
then damaging winds may also occur. A few tornadoes also appear
possible with any supercells that can be sustained, as low-level shear
is forecast to increase through the day. Greater severe probabilities
may be needed in a later outlook if confidence in persistent
supercells increases. A more isolated severe threat should also exist
across parts of the central Plains Wednesday evening/night as
convection develops along/behind the front.
...New York into the Mid-Atlantic...
A rather moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place along/west
of a front across these regions. An upper ridge may tend to suppress
convection for much of the day, but some guidance suggests there may
be potential for one or more clusters to evolve from southeastern
Canada into parts of NY and the Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery
of the upper ridge. If this occurs, then damaging winds would be
possible given the strong instability forecast. Have included low
severe probabilities to account for this potential, although
confidence remains low that robust thunderstorms will develop.
...Northern Plains...
Weak to moderate instability may develop Wednesday afternoon along a
secondary cold front across parts of far eastern ND into northwestern
MN. Shear should be strong enough for updraft organization if enough
instability can be realized, and it appears that isolated severe
thunderstorms could occur across this region.
..Gleason.. 06/13/2022
Read more
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 07:33:11 +0000
SPC Jun 13, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400
AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough/low should continue eastward across the Upper Midwest,
Great Lakes, and central/eastern Canada on Day 4/Thursday. Rich
low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward ahead of a front
across parts of the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As
ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the warm sector,
thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the front across portions
of these regions. Forecast instability and shear should support
organized severe thunderstorms, with the greatest severe potential
focused from parts of OH into western/central PA and NY. Damaging
winds could occur with any line segments or clusters, along with some
hail given the moderate to locally strong instability expected. Have
introduced a 15% severe area for Thursday from parts of the OH Valley
to NY to account for this severe potential.
A large-scale upper ridge should build over the central CONUS and
Canada from Day 5/Friday into this upcoming weekend. With the better
low-level moisture shifting offshore from a majority of the East
Coast, any potentially organized severe thunderstorm potential may be
confined to parts of coastal VA and the Carolinas. Otherwise, a highly
amplified upper trough may impact parts of the western states this
weekend as it moves slowly eastward. Some severe risk may eventually
develop across parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains
from Day 6/Saturday through Day 8/Monday. But, predictability remains
low at this extended time frame.
Read more
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 09:03:16 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206
AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper-level trough and strong west-southwesterly flow
aloft will overspread the western CONUS, while a lee surface low
deepens over the northern/central High Plains. A weak cold front will
extend southwestward from the surface low into the southern Great
Basin, where another area of low pressure should develop.
...Critical Wind/RH...
An expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions is expected from
the southwest into the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains by the afternoon hours. Across these areas, mostly clear skies
will favor deep boundary-layer mixing and single digit to lower/middle
teens RH. As the pressure gradient tightens in response the deepening
surface lows, sustained southwesterly surface winds of 25-35 mph (with
higher gusts) will develop from northern AZ into southeast UT and
southwest CO -- supporting locally extremely critical conditions given
highly receptive fuels.
Farther east, a swath of sustained southwesterly surface winds of
20-25 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap widespread 10-15 percent RH
from NM into southeastern CO and western KS/far southwest NE. These
conditions could extend even farther east than the current Critical
delineations, though fuels become less receptive owing to recent
rainfall.
...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected
over NM (especially over the higher terrain). As these thunderstorms
overspread a hot/deeply-mixed boundary layer and critically dry fuels,
isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible.
..Weinman.. 06/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 07:08:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208
AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough will remain in place over the western CONUS,
while a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads
the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. As a result, a lee surface
low will deepen over southeast CO/southwest KS, with a tight surface
pressure gradient developing on the northern and southern peripheries
of the low.
...Southwest into the Southern/Central Rockies...
Widespread 10-15 percent RH is expected during the afternoon, while
breezy west-southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph overspread the
area. While locally critical conditions will be possible (especially
from northeast NM into the western TX/OK Panhandles), fuels are
slightly less receptive to wildfire spread over these areas --
precluding Critical highlights at this time.
...Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains...
A swath of strong westerly surface winds near 25-30 mph is expected
along the northern periphery of the deepening surface low. While
downslope warming/drying should favor 15-20 percent RH along this
corridor, fuels are only modestly receptive to wildfire spread.
Therefore, despite the possibility of critical meteorological
conditions, Elevated highlights have been maintained.
..Weinman.. 06/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 07:10:27 +0000
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