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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.06.22 23:00z 606 Lines 24846 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-JUN.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 14 Jun 2022
09:50:02 +0000 Tue, 14 Jun 2022 09:50:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363 WW 363 SEVERE TSTM ND SD
140425Z - 141100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CDT Mon Jun
13 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South central North Dakota Central South Dakota
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1125 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms have recently intensified across southwest South
Dakota, and these storms will likely persist while spreading
northeastward overnight. The storm environment still favors embedded
supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail up to tennis
ball size, and any upscale growth into clusters would support a
locally greater threat for severe outflow winds up to 75 mph.
Vertical shear will remain sufficient for organized storms overnight,
so an isolated tornado or two may occur with embedded circulations.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of
Jamestown ND to 70 miles south of Philip SD. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 358...WW 359...WW 360...WW
361...WW 362...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
22035.
...Thompson
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 08:32:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362 WW 362 SEVERE TSTM ND 140255Z
- 141100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM CDT Mon Jun 13
2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast North Dakota
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 955 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large
hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of strong-severe storms in north central North Dakota
may persist into northeast North Dakota overnight. The strongest
embedded storms will be capable of producing severe outflow winds of
60-70 mph and large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. Additional
storms could move into parts of eastern North Dakota during the early
morning hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northeast of
Devils Lake ND to 50 miles south of Devils Lake ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64
KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 358...WW 359...WW
360...WW 361...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.
...Thompson
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 08:29:04 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365 Status Reports WW 0365 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 365
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..06/14/22
ATTN...WFO...IWX...CLE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 365
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC003-033-039-087-113-151-183-140640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DE KALB ELKHART LAGRANGE
NOBLE STEUBEN WHITLEY
MIC023-027-059-149-140640-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH CASS HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH
OHC003-005-033-039-043-051-063-069-077-093-095-123-125-137-139-
143-147-161-171-173-175-140640-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ASHLAND CRAWFORD
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 05:50:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364 Status Reports WW 0364 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW MRB TO 30
N LBE.
..DEAN..06/14/22
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...PBZ...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC009-111-140840-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD SOMERSET
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 07:10:04 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363 Status Reports WW 0363 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE 9V9 TO 25
S MBG TO 20 SSW BIS.
..DEAN..06/14/22
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-029-031-043-045-047-051-085-093-103-140940-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH SIOUX
STUTSMAN WELLS
SDC013-021-031-045-049-059-069-089-107-115-129-140940-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON EDMUNDS
FAULK HAND HYDE MCPHERSON
POTTER SPINK WALWORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 08:32:04 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362 Status Reports WW 0362 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 362
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..06/14/22
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC005-019-027-039-063-067-071-095-099-140940-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENSON CAVALIER EDDY GRIGGS
NELSON PEMBINA RAMSEY TOWNER
WALSH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 08:29:04 +0000
SPC MD 1161 MD 1161 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
362...363... FOR NORTHEAST SD INTO EASTERN ND/EXTREME
NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448
AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Areas affected...Northeast SD into eastern ND/extreme northwest MN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...363...
Valid 140948Z - 141115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362, 363
continues.
SUMMARY...An intense thunderstorm cluster will continue to pose a
severe wind and hail threat this morning. New watch issuance is
possible by 11Z.
DISCUSSION...An intense thunderstorm cluster is approaching areas near
and north of Aberdeen, SD as of 0945Z. Recent radar trends suggest
that severe wind gusts and embedded hail remain possible with this
long-lived cluster, as it moves through an environment of strong
buoyancy (MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and favorable deep-layer shear.
The zone of the most favorable environment may become increasingly
constrained with time, due to ongoing convective overturning to the
northwest of this cluster, and advection of relatively dry/stable air
to its southeast. However, a narrow but favorable corridor will likely
persist across parts of eastern ND into far northwest MN, where
potential for severe wind and isolated hail will likely persist
through daybreak.
With WW 362 set to expire at 11Z, new watch issuance may be needed
within the next hour for portions of eastern ND into extreme northwest
MN.
..Dean/Hart.. 06/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45699986 46469976 47419922 48529834 48859789 48839698
48179684 47469699 47059711 46279753 45999775 45519834
44979936 45699986
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 09:49:03 +0000
SPC Jun 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM
CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible within the northern Red River Valley vicinity, portions of
the Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley.
...Synopsis...
A broad shortwave trough will continue to move east. An initial
mid-level perturbation will move through the northern Plains into
southern Canada early in the period. A secondary perturbation will
follow later in the day into the overnight through the central Rockies
and into the central Plains. An MCS/MCV within the Ohio Valley will
continue to the south and east Monday night into Tuesday morning. This
feature may spur convective development within the Mid-Atlantic during
the afternoon.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Convection within the lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley Monday
evening is expected to continue eastward toward the region. Current
timing of Ohio Valley MCS/MCV places the feature into the region
within the 10-13Z time frame. Given this timing, it seems likely that
clouds/precipitation will hinder destabilization at least for parts of
the area. There will be some opportunity for additional storm
development along the outflow/pseudo-wedge front from the MCS.
Deep-layer shear will be stronger to the north than to the south and
the reverse will be true for buoyancy. At this time, a broad Slight
will be maintained to account for the envelope of possible solutions.
A cluster or two of storms may ultimately develop. Large hail would be
possible initially, but damaging winds would likely become the primary
threat should upscale growth occur.
...Mid-Missouri Valley...
As the primary shortwave trough and surface cyclone moves into central
Canada, the front will tend to stall within the Plains. Heating ahead
of the boundary coupled with continued steep mid-level lapse rate
influx from the west will promote very large buoyancy (3000-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE) by late afternoon. At least modest capping will be present.
Surface-based storm coverage is not certain. Should one develop, large
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado would be possible.
Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong within the warm sector,
though, and storm organization will be limited as a result.
A more likely scenario will play out by early evening when the
low-level jet increases into the cold front. These storms would have a
greater likelihood of being anafrontal. While the threat for wind
damage and tornadoes will be lower with this activity, steep lapse
rates and sufficient MUCAPE will support large hail.
...North Dakota/Minnesota...
Convection will be ongoing at the beginning of the period. Scattered
storms are expected to continue developing through Monday night into
Tuesday morning being driven by the main shortwave trough ejecting
into the northern Plains. Given the meridional flow aloft, a messy
storm mode is expected. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support a few
potent storm cores capable of large hail and isolated wind damage.
...Southeast...
Monday evening observed sounding data showed mid-level lapse rates
around 7 C/km. Given a very moist boundary layer, 3000-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE will be possible in some areas during the afternoon. Shear will
be very weak, but the environment will favor microburst activity
capable of wind damage.
..Wendt/Weinman.. 06/14/2022
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 05:46:12 +0000
SPC Jun 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday across parts of
the Upper Midwest into Upper Michigan. Several tornadoes, large to
very large hail, and damaging winds all appear likely. Some of the
tornadoes could be strong.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Central Plains...
A large-scale upper trough/low is forecast to move eastward from
central Canada and the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday. A strong (50-70+ kt)
southwesterly mid-level jet should overspread these regions through
the day, with a south-southwesterly low-level jet also expected to
strengthen over WI and vicinity by late Wednesday afternoon. At the
surface, an area of low pressure initially over the central Plains
should will likely develop northeastward to the Upper Midwest by
Wednesday evening. A warm front attendant to this surface low is
expected to lift northward across much of WI and into parts of Upper
MI, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the
central Plains towards the mid MS Valley.
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
across parts of IA/MN. This activity may pose an isolated threat for
large hail Wednesday morning before gradually weakening as it moves
quickly northeastward. In its wake, a plume of rich low-level moisture
should develop northeastward across much of WI, along with steepened
mid-level lapse rates. Diurnal heating of this moist low-level airmass
will likely foster moderate to locally strong instability across the
warm sector by Wednesday afternoon. Strengthening winds aloft
associated with both the low-level and mid-level jet will easily
support 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear.
Initial surface-based convection that develops Wednesday afternoon
along or just ahead of the front will likely be supercellular, with a
threat for large to very large hail. Low-level shear also appears
quite strong in a fairly narrow corridor from far southeastern MN and
northeastern IA into parts of central/northern WI and a small portion
of Upper MI. It appears that supercells should be the primary
convective mode for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Several
tornadoes appear probable in this corridor, and some of them could be
strong, with effective SRH forecast to exceed 250-350 m2/s2. Given
increased confidence in supercells occurring, have included greater
severe probabilities for all hazards. Some upscale growth into one or
more bowing clusters may also occur with eastward extent across the
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday evening/night, with
associated risk for damaging winds.
Farther south across the central Plains into MO, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop along/behind the front, mainly Wednesday
evening/night. This activity could pose an isolated threat for hail
and strong/gusty winds.
...New York into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
It remains unclear how much convection will occur across parts of NY
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Wednesday. This area will
generally be beneath a highly amplified upper ridge. But, substantial
instability is forecast to be present over much of these regions by
Wednesday afternoon owing an eastward extension of an EML. One or more
remnant MCVs from prior convection may help focus renewed convection
through the afternoon and evening. Given the moderate to strong
buoyancy forecast and modest deep-layer shear, loosely organized
multicells capable of producing both damaging winds and severe hail
may occur. Have expanded the Marginal Risk southward to include much
of the Southeast to account for latest guidance showing one or more
clusters occurring across this region.
..Gleason.. 06/14/2022
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 06:04:15 +0000
SPC Jun 14, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM
CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW YORK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Thursday
across parts of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.
...New York into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley...
Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread parts of
western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic and OH Valley on Thursday
ahead of an upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should be
present across these regions ahead of a surface front/trough.
Moderate to locally strong instability should develop through Thursday
afternoon in a fairly narrow corridor. The strengthening mid-level
flow should foster enough deep-layer shear to support organized severe
thunderstorms. Current expectations are for convection to gradually
increase in coverage and intensity through the day, with the surface
front providing a focus for low-level convergence and lift. Shear
appears strong enough to support a mix of multicell clusters and
perhaps some supercells. Both damaging winds and severe hail may occur
with this convection as it spreads east-southeastward through Thursday
evening. Low-level shear may also be strong enough to support a couple
of tornadoes if any supercells can persist. These thunderstorms should
eventually weaken with eastward extent into NY and the Mid-Atlantic,
as a much less unstable airmass should be present farther east.
...Central Plains...
A weak front should be draped across parts of the central Plains into
MO on Thursday. Robust diurnal heating of a very moist low-level
airmass along/near this boundary should support the development of
very strong instability by late Thursday afternoon. This region will
generally be under the influence of an upper ridge, with corresponding
weak/minimal forcing aloft. Still, most global guidance suggests some
convection may develop along/near the boundary across parts of
northern KS/southern NE and northwestern MO by Thursday evening. If
thunderstorms do form, forecast very strong instability and modest
deep-layer shear would potentially support an isolated threat for both
large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Gleason.. 06/14/2022
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 07:33:13 +0000
SPC Jun 14, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358
AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper ridge should amplify over much of the central
CONUS into central Canada from Day 4/Friday through the upcoming
weekend. An upper trough and related surface cold front moving quickly
eastward should shunt rich low-level moisture off much of the East
Coast on Friday. Weak instability in the wake of this front should
tend to limit potential for organized severe convection across much of
the central/eastern CONUS. A highly amplified upper trough/low is
forecast to move slowly eastward over the western states this weekend.
It appears that any meaningful severe potential in this time frame
should be confined to parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. But, limited confidence in thunderstorm development/coverage
precludes any severe probabilities for Day 5/Saturday and Day
6/Sunday.
Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the western
CONUS upper trough/low should eject northeastward across the northern
Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest early next week. If
sufficient low-level moisture return can occur ahead of this feature,
then some severe risk may materialize across parts of these regions on
Day 7/Monday into Day 8/Tuesday. Regardless, predictability remains
too low at this extended time frame to include a 15% severe area.
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 09:01:05 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201
AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...
...Synopsis...
A closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the
Montana/Canada border, while a belt of strong west-southwesterly flow
aloft extends from the Great Basin into the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. At the same time, a lee surface low will deepen
over parts of far southeast CO, with a tight surface pressure gradient
developing along its peripheries.
...Northeast New Mexico into South-Central Colorado...
As the pressure gradient tightens along the southern and western
periphery of the deepening surface low, sustained west-southwesterly
surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) will develop amid single
digit to lower/middle teens RH. Given the presence of highly receptive
fuels over the area and ongoing wildfires over New Mexico, Critical
highlights have been added.
...Elsewhere across the Southwest into the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains... As the strong/deep west-southwesterly flow
overspreads a deepening boundary layer, widespread 10-15 percent RH is
expected. While 15-20 mph sustained surface winds will generally
result in elevated conditions, spotty critical conditions will be
possible primarily over terrain-favored areas.
..Weinman.. 06/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 07:02:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200
AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
A closed mid/upper-level low will move eastward across southern
Canada, while a trailing band of strong westerly flow aloft crosses
the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
...Parts of the Central Rockies southward along the Colorado Front
Range... As the strong midlevel westerly flow crosses the higher
terrain, a corridor of terrain-enhanced surface winds near 15-20 mph
(with higher gusts) are expected amid 10-15 percent RH along the
Colorado Front Range -- where fuels are critically dry. Farther north
in southern Wyoming into western Nebraska, stronger sustained surface
winds of 25+ mph will overlap 15-20 percent RH. While critical
meteorological conditions are possible here, fuels are less receptive
to wildfire spread.
..Weinman.. 06/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 14 Jun 2022 07:01:28 +0000
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