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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.06.22 19:00z 380 Lines 17964 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9040_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220615/1630Z 9040@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Wed, 15 Jun 2022
09:02:01 +0000 Wed, 15 Jun 2022 09:02:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 15 09:02:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Wed Jun 15 09:02:01 UTC 2022. Wed, 15
Jun 2022 09:01:06 +0000
SPC MD 1174 MD 1174 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
370... FOR EASTERN NE...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA...FAR
SOUTHEAST MN...FAR SOUTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342
AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Areas affected...Eastern NE...Southwest/Central/Northeast IA...Far
Southeast MN...Far Southwest WI
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370...
Valid 150842Z - 151015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370 continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts will remain
possible for the next few hours. Anticipated coverage is expected to
be isolated, precluding downstream watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...A few supercells continue to persist across east-central
NE and southwest IA, supported by warm-air advection and moderate
buoyancy. Buoyancy has weakened in the immediate vicinity of these
storms, as well as downstream into more of central IA. Expectation is
for these storms to gradually diminish in coverage and intensity over
the next few hours. Longevity and organized character of these storms
suggests some severe threat will still exist for the next hour or two.
However, the threat should become isolated enough to preclude
additional watch issuance.
Farther east, a transition to more of a linear structure has occurred,
with the storms now propagating more eastward on the outflow. A gust
of 50 kt was recently reported at MIW. Some isolated damaging wind
gusts may occur with this line as it moves eastward over the next hour
or so, but the downstream air mass is not overly supportive of storm
maintenance and the outflow is moving ahead of the deeper convection.
As such, the expectation is that the line will gradually weaken,
precluding the need for a downstream watch at this time, but
convective trends will be monitored closely.
..Mosier/Hart.. 06/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 40789591 40629702 41659722 43959192 42609013 41499318
40789591
Read more
Wed, 15 Jun 2022 08:43:03 +0000
SPC Jun 15, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM
CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the
Upper Midwest into Upper Michigan. Several tornadoes, large to very
large hail, and damaging winds all appear likely. Some of the
tornadoes could be strong.
...Synopsis...
A surface cold front will sweep across the Upper Mississippi Valley as
a broad mid-level trough overspreads the north-central U.S. today.
Strong, veering tropospheric winds and deep-layer ascent ahead of the
mid-level trough will overspread a very moist and buoyant low-level
air mass, supporting the potential for organized severe thunderstorms
capable of all hazards across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, weak
mid-level impulses pivoting around an upper ridge across the central
Appalachians into the Southeast will serve as the impetus for the
initiation of convective clusters. These clusters may organize into
west-southwestward propagating squall lines capable of producing
damaging gusts.
...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
Scattered strong to potentially severe elevated storms are expected to
be ongoing across portions of IA into WI at the start of the period,
posing mainly a large hail and damaging gust threat. Despite some
convective overturning introduced by these storms early on, strong
diurnal heating is expected to precede the approaching cold front,
with a feed of steep mid-level lapse rates expected to overspread the
warm sector across the Upper Midwest, coincident with a 70+ kt 500 mb
speed max. Strong forcing along the cold front will encourage the
development of semi-discrete storms that will merge into a line while
progressing eastward across far northeast IA into WI during the
afternoon. However, 40-50 kts of 850 mb flow overspread by the 70 kt
500 mb southwesterly flow will support nearly 50 kts of effective bulk
shear. When considering 8+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates atop mid 70s
F surface dewpoints (contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE), sustained
supercells are expected in the line. The very steep, deep-layer lapse
rates will support an organized risk of severe wind and hail, with 65+
kt gusts and 2+ inch hail possible. The presence of a strong low-level
jet will also promote modest sized/curved low-level hodographs and
250-350 m2/s2 effective SRH, with tornadoes possible with any
sustained supercell structure. Given the very unstable environment, a
couple of strong tornadoes are possible.
More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the
trailing cold front by late afternoon across portions of the central
Plains. While lapse rates will be steep, stronger shear/forcing is
expected to be displaced northeast. Nonetheless, a couple instances of
large hail or damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms
given the presence of ample buoyancy (i.e. 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE).
...Central Appalachians into the Southeast...
By late morning into early afternoon, strong diurnal heating will aid
in scattered strong thunderstorm development near the subtle mid-level
impulses pivoting around the upper ridge along the Eastern Seaboard.
High-resolution guidance consensus depicts a relatively larger area of
convection developing across the Southeast, with a second area of
convective clustering possible along the WV/VA border. In both areas,
nearly unidirectional, weak tropospheric easterly flow will encourage
cold pool mergers and subsequent southward/westward propagation of
loosely organized MCSs. Surface temperatures approaching the 95-100F
range will result in a relatively mixed boundary layer with steep
low-level lapse rates, overspread by 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
(already in place per 00Z observed regional soundings). As such,
efficient evaporative cooling should encourage enough downward
momentum transport within the MCSs to support a damaging gust threat
across the central Appalachians into the Southeast, hence the Category
2/Slight Risk. A couple instances of large hail may also briefly occur
with the initial, more robust updrafts given the aforementioned steep
mid-level lapse rates. A category 1/Marginal risk remains in place
across the northern Appalachians as a decaying MCS may approach from
Ontario during the early evening hours, accompanied by a sparse
damaging gust threat.
..Squitieri/Weinman.. 06/15/2022
Read more
Wed, 15 Jun 2022 05:46:13 +0000
SPC Jun 15, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM
CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW YORK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday across parts of
the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Damaging winds
should be the main threat, but a few tornadoes and some large hail may
also occur.
...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Upper Ohio Valley...
An upper trough/low should continue to advance eastward across the
Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ontario on Thursday. Strong mid-level
westerly winds are forecast to overspread parts of the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic by Thursday afternoon. Primary surface low associated
with this system will remain well to the north in Canada, with a
trailing cold front likewise expected to move east-southeastward
across these regions and the upper OH Valley through the day. Rich
low-level moisture characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface
dewpoints should spread northeastward in a narrow corridor ahead of
the front. Diurnal heating of this moist low-level airmass should
foster moderate to strong instability, with modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates also present. Strengthening mid-level westerlies
through the day should support around 35-45+ kt of deep-layer shear,
and any thunderstorms that can form should become organized.
Current expectations are for convection to generally develop ahead of
the front across western NY and northeastern OH along lake breeze
boundaries and a lee trough by early Thursday afternoon. This initial
development may be supercellular, with an associated threat for large
hail. Low-level shear also appears sufficiently strong to support some
risk for a few tornadoes. With time Thursday afternoon, thunderstorms
should congeal into multiple bowing clusters with a greater damaging
wind threat into parts of central NY, PA, and the upper OH Valley
vicinity. The eastward extent of the severe threat Thursday evening
will likely be modulated by a less unstable airmass across eastern
NY/PA and the Delmarva Peninsula. Still, at least isolated damaging
winds may continue to be a concern across these areas until storms
eventually weaken Thursday night. Farther south into the central
Appalachians and Carolinas, less deep-layer shear and weaker
large-scale forcing should keep the overall severe threat fairly
isolated. But, some hail and isolated damaging winds may occur with
any loosely organized clusters that can form and move generally
south-southeastward.
...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley...
Convection may form along a weak front from parts of the central
Plains into the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley, mainly Thursday
evening/night. Although mid-level flow should remain fairly modest,
strong instability is forecast to be present along/south of this
boundary, aided by steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level
moisture. An isolated threat for both large hail and damaging winds
may develop as convection forms and spreads east-southeastward
overnight.
..Gleason.. 06/15/2022
Read more
Wed, 15 Jun 2022 06:02:00 +0000
SPC Jun 15, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM
CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...VIRGINIA...AND
CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts
of the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, Virginia, and
Carolinas.
...Lower Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians, Virginia, and
Carolinas... Some guidance suggests that a small cluster of
thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of the mid MS
Valley into the lower OH Valley. There appears to be some potential
for this cluster to continue southeastward through the day into the
central Appalachians, and perhaps parts of VA/NC/SC by late Friday
afternoon. This region will be sandwiched between an upper ridge
centered over the Southeast and much of the Plains, and an upper
trough over eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Modestly enhanced mid-level northwesterly flow may aid continued
thunderstorm organization as it spreads southeastward. Most guidance
indicates that moderate to strong instability will develop ahead of
this activity. Isolated damaging winds and hail may occur with any
convection that can persist through the day, or develop across the
warm sector. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
overall thunderstorm coverage and placement across these regions, so
have opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now.
...New England...
Modest low-level moisture should be in place ahead of a cold front
across parts of New England Friday morning. There are differences in
latest global guidance regarding the placement of the front and
quality of the low-level moisture. Have leaned towards the 00Z
GFS/ECMWF frontal position and timing, which suggest that a faster
progression of the front Friday morning/afternoon should tend to limit
instability and the overall severe threat across southern/eastern New
England. If the slower 00Z NAM solution is correct, then some severe
risk would exist across this area. Will defer possible inclusion of
low severe probabilities until better model agreement is realized.
..Gleason.. 06/15/2022
Read more
Wed, 15 Jun 2022 07:30:11 +0000
SPC Jun 15, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344
AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a highly
amplified upper ridge will remain over much of the central CONUS and
Canada this upcoming weekend while moving slowly eastward. Across the
western states, an elongated upper trough should also advance slowly
eastward, reaching the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains by Day 6/Monday. Low-level moisture will attempt to return
northward across parts of the northern Plains from Day 4/Saturday into
Day 5/Sunday. However, a stout cap will probably limit overall
thunderstorm coverage, and confidence that severe convection will form
in this time frame remains low.
The upper trough should eject across the northern Plains into central
Canada around Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday. Depending on the track
of this feature and the quality of low-level moisture return, some
severe threat may exist across parts of the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest early next week. However, too much uncertainty currently
exists in the placement/evolution of the upper trough and related
surface features to include severe probabilities at this extended time
frame.
Read more
Wed, 15 Jun 2022 08:47:04 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203
AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
A closed mid/upper-level low will track eastward across parts of
Canada, while a trailing band of strong westerly midlevel flow crosses
the Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
...Central Rockies and Adjacent High Plains...
As the strong midlevel westerly flow crosses the central Rockies,
downslope warming/drying will result in 15-20 percent RH over
southeast WY into western NE -- where a swath of 20-30 mph sustained
westerly surface winds are expected. While critical meteorological
conditions are possible here, fuels are only modestly receptive --
precluding a Critical area.
Farther south along the Colorado Front Range, terrain-enhanced surface
winds of 15-20 mph should develop amid 10-15 percent RH, resulting in
a narrow corridor of elevated to spotty critical fire-weather
conditions. Given that fuels continue to dry over the area, Elevated
highlights are warranted.
..Weinman.. 06/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 15 Jun 2022 07:05:28 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203
AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...
...Synopsis...
As a highly amplified midlevel trough approaches California,
accompanying strong/deep south-southwesterly flow will overspread the
Great Basin -- where a dry airmass remains in place. As this occurs,
surface low pressure will deepen over parts of northern NV, resulting
in a tight surface pressure gradient over the southern Great Basin.
...Critical Wind/RH - Southern Great Basin...
As the strong/deep south-southwesterly flow overspreads a diurnally
deepening boundary layer over parts of the southern Great Basin,
sustained southerly surface winds could reach 20-25 mph amid single
digit to lower/middle teens RH. Given that fuels are highly receptive
to wildfire spread across parts of central and southern NV (90-95th
percentile ERCs), critical fire weather conditions are expected during
the afternoon and evening hours.
...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms...
A plume of increasing midlevel moisture will spread northward atop a
hot/deeply-mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest, allowing
for isolated high-based thunderstorm development over parts of
southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Very limited precipitation is
expected with activity, and isolated lightning-induced ignitions will
be possible owing to critically dry fuels.
..Weinman.. 06/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 15 Jun 2022 07:06:19 +0000
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