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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.06.22 19:00z 330 Lines 15788 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9074_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220616/1730Z 9074@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 16 Jun 2022
08:13:01 +0000 Thu, 16 Jun 2022 08:13:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 16 08:13:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Thu Jun 16 08:13:01 UTC 2022. Thu, 16
Jun 2022 08:12:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Jun 16 08:13:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 16
08:13:01 UTC 2022. Thu, 16 Jun 2022 08:12:05 +0000
SPC Jun 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM
CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across parts of the
Northeast and Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon/evening. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes can be expected. Strong/severe
thunderstorms with hail/wind will also develop across portions of the
central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley region. Isolated strong
storms will also develop across the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Northeast/Ohio Valley...
Upper ridge currently positioned over the southern Appalachians will
build west as a pronounced short-wave trough progresses across the
Great Lakes during the day. This feature will suppress the height
field as far south as the northern middle Atlantic as 500mb speed max
approaches the base of the trough across upstate NY late in the
period. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary layer heating
will occur across the upper OH Valley ahead of a pre frontal trough.
This should allow for rapid and seasonally strong destabilization from
portions of eastern OH across western PA into portions of western NY.
Early-day convection that forms along a north-south corridor of warm
advection will suppress destabilization downstream and the primary
concern for robust thunderstorm development will be within the zone of
strong surface heating.
Pattern evolution will lead to deepening westerly flow that will
encourage steep lapse rates to be resupplied into the upper OH Valley.
Forecast soundings prior to convective initiation exhibit SBCAPE in
excess of 3000 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear greater than 40kt
across portions of the ENH Risk. Current thinking is initial
thunderstorm development may occur north of the international border
but should evolve by mid afternoon in the lee of Lake Erie. Profiles
suggest supercells are possible and if discrete updrafts actually
evolve then very large hail may accompany this activity, in addition
to an increased tornado risk. If initial convection evolves more
quickly into bow-type structures then wind will certainly become a
primary threat. An upward evolving complex of convection should
propagate east-southeast, eventually encountering a more hostile
boundary layer across the Hudson Valley into the Delmarva.
...Central Plains to Lower MO Valley...
Surface front is forecast to stall across the middle of the country
and extend roughly across northern MO/KS into northeast CO. While
large-scale support aloft will be minimized as upper ridging shifts
into this part of the US, low-level warm advection will prove
instrumental in a corridor of convection, particularly during the
latter half of the period. Strong daytime heating will remove
inhibition near the front and this will contribute to strong buoyancy
across northern KS into the lower MO River Valley. Latest guidance
suggests robust convection should evolve over southeast NE then
spread/propagate southeast during the evening. An MCS may ultimately
evolve along the cool side of the front and this cluster should spread
toward the lower OH Valley late in the period. Hail/wind are the
primary risks.
...Lower MS Valley...
Notable easterly wave has contributed to a pronounced cluster of
strong/severe thunderstorms across portions of GA into AL late this
evening. This feature is expected to once again contribute to
scattered robust convection during the day as boundary layer warming
destabilizes the air mass. Gusty winds/hail may be noted with the
strongest convection across the lower MS Valley.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 06/16/2022
Read more
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 05:49:18 +0000
SPC Jun 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHEAST...AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts
of the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and Southeast,
the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic, and the northern Rockies/High
Plains. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threats.
...Mid Mississippi into the Lower Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians,
and Southeast... A weakened cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing
Friday morning near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers. If it
persists, this activity may continue to pose an isolated threat for
damaging winds and marginally severe hail over the lower OH Valley and
vicinity through Friday morning. Some guidance suggests this cluster
may restrengthen by Friday afternoon across parts of the central
Appalachians into the Southeast. The threat for damaging winds would
increase if this occurs. These regions will be located between an
upper ridge centered over the Plains and an upper trough moving
eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Modestly enhanced
mid-level northwesterly winds and related deep-layer shear present
between the upper ridge and trough across the central Appalachians
into the Southeast may promote modest updraft organization.
It remains unclear whether the morning convection will survive as it
crosses the Appalachians, or if additional robust thunderstorms
develop on outflow boundaries. Regardless of convective evolution
through the day, moderate to strong instability and sufficient
deep-layer shear should support a threat for isolated damaging winds
and hail with any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained. There
is still large variability in global and convection-allowing model
guidance depicting where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms
may occur. Have opted to expand the Marginal Risk to account for the
wide range of possibilities, but confidence was too low to include
greater severe wind probabilities at this time.
...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
At least weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front
across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Friday morning into the
early afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front is
forecast to remain fairly weak as low-level winds gradually veer to
westerly, most guidance suggests isolated to scattered convection will
develop by late Friday morning along/ahead of the cold front.
Deep-layer shear associated with an upper trough moving eastward
across these regions appears strong enough for organized updrafts,
including the potential for marginal supercell structures. Both
isolated damaging winds and large hail may occur with this activity.
Have therefore included a Marginal Risk where thunderstorms appear
most likely to occur through Friday afternoon.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Warm mid-level temperatures and a substantial cap are expected to
inhibit convective development through much of Friday afternoon.
Still, by late afternoon or early evening, most guidance suggests at
least isolated thunderstorms will develop parts of the northern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains. This activity should be related to
modest ascent preceding a large-scale upper trough/low over the West
Coast. Low-level moisture is forecast to quickly increase across the
High Plains of eastern/northern WY into eastern MT by early Friday
evening. If convection can be sustained, then it would pose an
isolated threat for severe winds given the deeply mixed boundary
layer. Some hail may occur as well given sufficient deep-layer shear
for rotating updrafts. A small area of isolated hail/wind risk is also
apparent farther west across parts of the northern Rockies, mainly
Friday evening.
..Gleason.. 06/16/2022
Read more
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 06:04:04 +0000
SPC Jun 16, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM
CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
...Northern Rockies/Plains...
A large-scale upper trough/low over the West Coast should move very
slowly eastward across the western states on Saturday. Strong
mid-level southerly flow associated with this feature will be present
over parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains through the period.
Although low-level moisture will likely remain limited, diurnal
heating and relatively cool mid-level temperatures should allow for
weak instability to develop by late Saturday afternoon. The forecast
combination of weak instability and strong deep-layer shear may allow
for modest updraft organization with any thunderstorms that can form.
At this point, it appears that high-based convection will initially
develop over the higher terrain of north-central ID and spread into
parts of western/northern MT through Saturday evening. Some hail and
occasional severe wind gusts may occur with the strongest cores, but
the limited instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly
isolated.
...Southeast...
Moderate to strong instability should develop through Saturday
afternoon along/south of a front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop across parts of the Southeast, perhaps focused along
the front and various sea breeze boundaries. Even though ample
instability should be present, deep-layer shear is expected to remain
quite weak. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur with pulse
convection. But, at this point the potential for organized severe
convection appears too limited to include low severe probabilities.
..Gleason.. 06/16/2022
Read more
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 07:33:12 +0000
SPC Jun 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310
AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper ridge will likely remain prominent over much of
the Plains and MS Valley from Day 4/Sunday into early next week. A
highly amplified upper trough/low centered over the western CONUS
should advance slowly east-northeastward across the northern
Rockies/Plains and central Canada in the same time frame. Sufficient
low-level moisture return and related instability may be present
across parts of the northern Plains to support some severe threat on
Day 4/Sunday. However, there are still enough differences in model
guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage and placement to limit
confidence in a focused area of greater severe potential.
As the upper trough continues eastward across central Canada and the
north-central states, an isolated severe risk may exist across parts
of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest from Day 5/Monday into
Day 6/Tuesday. However, based on differences in the placement of the
upper trough and related surface features in the latest medium-range
guidance, it is unclear which day may have a greater severe potential.
There are some indications that a severe risk may persist across parts
of the Great Lakes into the Northeast by the middle of next week, and
perhaps the northern Plains as well, as the upper ridge becomes
suppressed and mid-level flow becomes increasingly zonal across the
northern tier of the CONUS. However, predictability remains low at
this extended time frame.
Read more
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 08:13:04 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214
AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deepen while impinging on the Great Basin,
encouraging surface low development in Nevada today. Broad 20+ mph
sustained southerly flow is expected across the Great Basin this
afternoon. A very dry low-level airmass will emanate from the Lower
Colorado River Basin, promoting Critical conditions across central and
southern Nevada given the presence of very dry fuels. Farther
southeast across eastern Arizona into western New Mexico, a southerly
fetch of mid-level moisture and associated buoyancy will promote
isolated, high-based thunderstorms atop very dry fuels, prompting the
maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights.
..Squitieri.. 06/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 07:17:32 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215
AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH...
...Synopsis...
An amplified mid-level trough will meander eastward toward the
Interior West through the day tomorrow as a surface low gradually
progresses northeast into western Utah. 25-30 mph sustained southerly
winds amid 10-15 percent RH will envelop much of the western Great
Basin. High-end Critical meteorological conditions are expected for
several hours during the afternoon atop fuels that have become
receptive to wildfire spread. Meanwhile, deep-layer southerly flow
will continue to transport mid-level moisture northward to the Four
Corners region. High-based thunderstorms are likely tomorrow
afternoon, and these storms are expected to overspread fuels that are
modestly to highly receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating
isolated dry thunderstorm highlights.
Broad southerly flow is expected to extend as far east as the central
High Plains, with solidly Critical meteorological conditions
developing across eastern Colorado and surrounding areas. However,
high-end Elevated conditions are anticipated as fuel receptiveness to
fire spread is quite modest.
..Squitieri.. 06/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 07:18:21 +0000
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