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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.06.22 16:44z 305 Lines 13590 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9184_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220618/1630Z 9184@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 18 Jun 2022
08:25:02 +0000 Sat, 18 Jun 2022 08:25:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 18 08:25:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sat Jun 18 08:25:02 UTC 2022. Sat, 18
Jun 2022 08:24:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Jun 18 08:25:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 18
08:25:02 UTC 2022. Sat, 18 Jun 2022 08:24:05 +0000
SPC Jun 18, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM
CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from the
eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas vicinity southeastward to the
central Gulf Coast, and across the Florida Peninsula. Sporadic strong
gusts will be the main hazards with these storms. Isolated severe
storms may also occur over portions of northwestern Montana,
accompanied by risk for both large hail and damaging winds.
...Synopsis...
A highly amplified upper flow field will continue across North America
today, with troughs over both the eastern and western portions of the
country and sharp/intervening ridge centered over the Plains/Canadian
Prairie through the period. Minor/slow eastward translation of the
overall pattern is expected.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to make minimal eastward
progress across the Intermountain West, while in the East, a front
sags southward/southwestward across the southeastern quarter of the
country.
...The Florida Peninsula...
As a surface cold front sags southward across northern Florida into
the afternoon, the moist/unstable environment near and south of the
front will support increasingly widespread thunderstorm activity, as
storms develop both near the front, and along west- and east-coast
sea-breeze boundaries.
Flow aloft will remain modest -- generally below 15kt through mid
levels. However, given the northerly component to the flow field
aloft that should allow storms to organize into one or more
southward-moving clusters as cells merge/grow upscale, local risk for
damaging wind gusts remains apparent, through the afternoon and into
the early evening hours.
...Eastern Oklahoma/Western Arkansas vicinity to the central Gulf
Coast region... Thunderstorm development is forecast to become
increasingly widespread through midday/early afternoon from the
central Gulf Coast region westward/west-northwestward into the
southern Plains, within a moist/destabilizing airmass in the vicinity
of a weak/diffuse cold front. While flow aloft should remain weak,
rather deep-layer quasi-unidirectional easterly flow may yield weakly
organized clusters of westward-moving convection, with attendant/local
risk for gusty winds with stronger storms.
...Northwestern Montana...
As the upper trough -- and likewise the surface cold front --
progresses gradually eastward, a similar scenario (from a convective
perspective) as was present Friday is expected to evolve once again
over portions of northern Montana, but displaced slightly eastward
from 24 hours prior. As a modestly moist boundary layer
heats/destabilizes through the day, isolated thunderstorm development
is expected to occur -- aided by large-scale ascent associated with
the advancing upper system. A couple of the strongest storms may
produce large hail and locally gusty/damaging winds during the late
afternoon and early evening hours.
..Goss.. 06/18/2022
Read more
Sat, 18 Jun 2022 05:44:20 +0000
SPC Jun 18, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM
CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong wind gusts and hail are possible from central Montana
into eastern Wyoming and the western Dakotas Sunday afternoon and
evening.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper pattern is forecast to be in place over the CONUS
early Sunday, characterized by expansive upper ridging centered over
MO and two flanking upper troughs. This trough/ridge/trough pattern
will persist throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward.
By early Monday morning, the upper ridge is expected to extend across
the MS Valley into Ontario, with the eastern upper trough off the
Northeast coast and the western upper trough extended from the
northern Rockies through the Great Basin.
The surface pattern early Sunday morning is expected to feature high
pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes and lee troughing across
the High Plains. The presence and strength of the area high pressure
will have displaced much of the low-level moisture to its southern and
western periphery (from the Gulf Coast into the Plains), limiting the
thunderstorm potential east of the MS River. The only exception is
across portions of the Upper Great Lakes, where afternoon storm
development is possible ahead of a subtle shortwave cresting the upper
ridge, and over the FL Peninsula, where low-level moisture and
buoyancy remain in place.
...Northern High Plains into the western Dakotas...
Highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across Rockies
(particularly the central and southern Rockies) in the area to the
west of the upper ridge but east of the western CONUS upper trough.
Deep southerly/southwesterly flow will result in a northeastward storm
motion with the majority of these storms, including those that develop
across central MT and eastern WY. This motion will take those
high-based storms into the well-mixed boundary layer anticipated over
the northern High Plains. Given the modest buoyancy, there is some
uncertainty regarding storm intensity, but strong outflow appears
probable enough to merit delineation of a 5% wind probabilities from
central MT into eastern WY and the western Dakotas. Some hail is also
possible across central and eastern MT.
..Mosier.. 06/18/2022
Read more
Sat, 18 Jun 2022 05:46:13 +0000
SPC Jun 18, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM
CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are
possible across portions of northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging is forecast to be in place from the MS Valley into
western Ontario early Monday morning, with upper troughing anticipated
to its west over the western CONUS and to its east off the East Coast.
A shortwave trough is expected to move within the western CONUS upper
trough, progressing northeastward across the central Rockies and into
the northern Plains.
Evolution of this shortwave will encourage the development of an
eastward-surging cold front, which is expected to promote thunderstorm
development as it interacts with the warm, moist, and strongly
unstable air mass over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The
stronger flow aloft will lag behind the cold front, but robust
buoyancy should still result intense updrafts capable of isolated hail
and/or damaging wind gusts.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also possible across the
southern High Plains and across the central and southern FL Panhandle.
Limited buoyancy should temper updraft intensity across the southern
High Plains, while weak shear should promote disorganized,
outflow-dominant multicells across FL.
..Mosier.. 06/18/2022
Read more
Sat, 18 Jun 2022 07:20:13 +0000
SPC Jun 18, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321
AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an expansive upper
ridge will be centered over the Mid-South early Tuesday morning. A
shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the northern
periphery of this ridge throughout the day, contributing to some
dampening. The upper ridge is expected to build westward on
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday, eventually covering much of the southern
third of the CONUS. Enhanced westerly flow is anticipated north of
this upper ridge, in the vicinity of the international border.
Low-amplitude shortwave troughs will likely progress through this
enhanced flow, potentially interacting with a moist and buoyant air
mass to promote thunderstorms. However, given the large-scale pattern,
predictability of these subtle waves as well as the quality of the
low-level moisture and buoyancy is low, limiting forecast confidence.
Read more
Sat, 18 Jun 2022 08:24:16 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128
AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN
UTAH...FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA...
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper-level trough will slowly move eastward through the
Great Basin today. Strong mid-level winds will continue across central
and eastern portions of the Basin, though some weakening is expected
during the day. A weaker surface trough than on Friday is expected
near the Nevada/Utah border. Farther east, a modest lee trough in the
central High Plains will develop and promote breezy, dry southerly
return flow.
...Great Basin...
Another day of widespread critical fire weather is expected,
particularly for eastern Nevada into western Utah. Winds of 20-25 mph
will be common in these areas. Some locations could experience 30-35
mph winds, but this should be more spatially limited than on Friday.
RH values from the single digits to around 20% are possible during the
afternoon. In eastern Utah, the winds could reach 20 mph. However,
there is greater potential for cloud cover and moisture return here
and RH should be somewhat higher as a result.
...Central High Plains...
Dry southerly return flow is expected as the lee trough deepens.
Winds of 15-20 mph are possible, though some areas of 20+ mph are not
out of the question. RH values may dip to near 15% locally, but most
locations will see values around 20%. Marginal fuels will also
mitigate greater fire weather concerns.
...Thunderstorms...
Moisture return around the mid-level anticyclone will continue today.
Thunderstorms are possible within the Southwest into the central
Rockies and perhaps the far eastern Great Basin. Increasing PWAT
values as well as greater storm coverage due to the forcing from the
approaching trough should limit the potential for dry thunderstorms.
..Wendt.. 06/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 18 Jun 2022 06:29:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129
AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL UTAH...
...Synopsis...
As the upper-level trough slowly lifts northeast, continued strong
mid-level flow will exist across the eastern Great Basin on Sunday.
Within the Plains, the tough approaching will promote a surface
cyclone within the northern High Plains along with a strong lee trough
extending into the central High Plains.
...Arizona/Utah...
Elevated to critical fire weather is possible during the afternoon.
The greatest potential for critical fire weather will be where the
mid-level jet will be positioned during the afternoon. Strong surface
winds of 20-30 mph will be probable. RH could again reach the single
digits in some places, with most others seeing 15-20%.
...Central High Plains...
Conditions are likely to be windier on Sunday than previous days given
the deeper lee trough. However, continued moisture return northward on
Saturday evening/overnight will also complicate the RH forecast. Even
typically dry-biased models show borderline RH of 20-25%. There is
even some potential for isolated thunderstorms to move into the area
off the higher terrain as well. Overall, marginally elevated fire
weather is expected.
..Wendt.. 06/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 18 Jun 2022 06:31:28 +0000
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