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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.06.22 07:33z 497 Lines 20507 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-JUN.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 17 Jun 2022
09:02:01 +0000 Fri, 17 Jun 2022 09:02:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380 WW 380 SEVERE TSTM IL MO
170640Z - 171300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 AM CDT Fri Jun 17
2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Illinois Northeast and east central Missouri
* Effective this Friday morning from 140 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail
events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Interacting clusters of storms across northern Missouri
early this morning will likely be maintained through the morning
hours, with the potential for the formation of a larger convective
system while spreading toward Saint Louis. Occasional damaging
outflow gusts up to 70 mph will be possible with bowing segments, and
isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with
the strongest embedded storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest
of Kirksville MO to 45 miles east northeast of Scott Afb IL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 379...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Thompson
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 07:49:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380 Status Reports WW 0380 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..06/17/22
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-005-009-013-021-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-135-137-149-
163-167-171-173-189-170840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOND BROWN CALHOUN
CHRISTIAN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE
JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
MORGAN PIKE ST. CLAIR SANGAMON
SCOTT SHELBY WASHINGTON
MOC001-007-019-027-041-089-103-111-113-115-121-127-137-139-163-
173-175-183-189-195-205-211-219-510-170840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
CHARITON HOWARD KNOX LEWIS
LINCOLN LINN MACON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 07:49:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379 Status Reports WW 0379 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..06/17/22
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...EAX...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 379
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-145-170840-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT PAGE
KSC005-013-043-085-117-131-201-170840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN JACKSON
MARSHALL NEMAHA WASHINGTON
MOC003-005-021-025-033-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-117-129-147-
177-227-170840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CARROLL CLINTON
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 07:48:04 +0000
SPC MD 1202 MD 1202 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
379...380... FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329
AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska southeastward into central
Illinois
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379...380...
Valid 170829Z - 171030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379, 380
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and thunderstorm winds to
60 mph will continue through the morning.
DISCUSSION...Two main areas of severe thunderstorm potential remain
this morning: one across southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas and
another across northeast Missouri into central Illinois.
Across southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas, thunderstorms continue
to redevelop within a warm-air advection regime. These thunderstorms
are being fed within a CAPE reservoir in excess of 3000 J/kg and
effective-layer shear around 30 knots. RAP point-forecast soundings
indicate these storms are originating just above the 850-mb level, and
tapping into mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. Given the elevated
nature of the thunderstorms and modest lapse rates, the primary
concern with these thunderstorms will be severe hail around 1-1.5
inches in diameter. The severe threat here may locally persist past
the expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379, however, the
localized nature of the threat should not require a new watch.
To the southeast, across northeast Missouri and eventually into
central Illinois, a well-organized cluster of thunderstorms continues
to move east-southeast. The atmosphere along and ahead of these
thunderstorms is extremely unstable, with CAPE values in excess of
4000 J/kg estimated by modified RAP soundings. However, unlike areas
to the northwest, effective-layer shear is considerably less along and
ahead of these thunderstorms, decreasing to less than 20 knots across
central Illinois. The well-organized nature of the existing
thunderstorms and the extreme instability should compensate somewhat
for the weak effective-layer shear resulting in a continued severe
threat for the next few hours, with the primary concern being wind
gusts around 60 mph and hail around 1 inch. Recent measured wind gusts
across northeast Missouri of around 55 mph bear this out. The severe
threat across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380 will continue through the
morning.
..Marsh.. 06/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... GID...
LAT...LON 40709732 41479776 40969551 40709136 39918995 39038912
38158939 39379483 40709732
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 08:30:04 +0000
SPC Jun 17, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM
CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Friday across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and Southeast. More
isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the New England
vicinity, and portions of the northern Rockies/High Plains. Damaging
winds and hail will be the main threats.
...Lower OH Valley to Southeast...
Upper ridge is forecast to build north across the Plains Friday as
heights fall across the Northeast and a notable trough advances inland
across the west. This flow regime will prove favorable for early-day
thunderstorm clusters across the lower MO Valley as warm advection
will be focused along/north of a weak boundary draped across this
region. Early this morning a substantial amount of elevated convection
is developing across southeast NE into northern MO. This activity
should continue to grow upscale as it propagates toward the lower OH
Valley by sunrise. Some variability exists among the latest model data
regarding the timing/placement of this MCS at daybreak, but remnants
of this cluster should spread across KY/TN and new convection should
develop along the leading outflow by mid day over/near the southern
Appalachians. While mid-level northwesterly flow is not forecast to be
that strong across this region, some 500mb strengthening is possible
into the southern middle Atlantic region during the afternoon as
heights fall across the Northeast. Strong boundary-layer heating,
considerable buoyancy, and adequate shear all favor some severe
wind/hail potential with convection that develops across this region.
One or more larger thunderstorm clusters may ultimately evolve as this
activity spreads toward the Southeast Coast.
...New England...
Strong height falls will spread across New England early in the period
in advance of a strong short-wave trough. Exit region of 500mb speed
max will translate across this region by 18z and scattered convection
should evolve within strongly veered flow regime. Latest HREF members
do not explicitly generate particularly strong updrafts despite the
steep lapse-rate environment and strong shear. Will maintain MRGL Risk
across this region due to early timing of convection, but isolated
severe may evolve ahead of the front and wind profiles favor deep
rotation/supercells.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Upper ridge is forecast to build across the northern Plains and prove
stubborn to move appreciably east through the end of the day1 period.
As a result, primary height falls will be noted across CA into the
Great Basin. This will favor deep meridional flow across WY/MT such
that only a narrow corridor of buoyancy should develop. Strong
boundary-layer heating will result in weakening CINH across the
highest Plains and high-based convection should initiate near the
mountains then spread north into eastern MT where focused LLJ and
stronger low-level convergence may support a few supercells. Locally
severe wind gusts and hail are the main risks.
Farther west, a few strong/severe thunderstorms should evolve over the
higher terrain of northeast ID into western MT where cooler profiles,
but steep lapse rates will reside. Forecast soundings suggest ample
shear/instability for supercells and hail/wind could be noted with
this activity as it spreads northeast toward the international border.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/17/2022
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 05:44:19 +0000
SPC Jun 17, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM
CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Florida
Peninsula.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper pattern is anticipated to be in place across the
CONUS on Saturday morning, anchored by an expansive upper ridge
centered over the KS/MO border that covers most of the central CONUS.
Two upper troughs will flank this upper ridge, with this
trough/ridge/trough pattern maintaining its integrity while shifting
slightly eastward throughout the day.
At the surface, high pressure will begin the period centered over
northwestern Ontario before expanding southward across the Upper Great
Lakes and into the OH Valley throughout the day. This southward shift
will encourage a southward surge of continental air into the
Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the front
delineating the leading edge of this cooler air interacts with the
very warm and moist air mass over the region. Weak vertical shear will
limit storm organization. However, very strong buoyancy will support
robust updrafts capable of water loading and the potential for
isolated damaging wind gusts across the Lower MS Valley and the FL
Peninsula.
Farther west, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
in the corridor between the western CONUS upper troughing and central
CONUS ridging, from the Southwest into the northern Rockies. A belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will exists throughout the eastern periphery
of the upper trough, but much of the thunderstorm development is
anticipated east of this stronger flow, limiting the overall severe
potential. The only exception is across the northern Rockies, where
moderate vertical shear should be in place amid isolated
thunderstorms. A few severe thunderstorms are possible, but overall
coverage is expected to remain too low for severe probabilities.
..Mosier.. 06/17/2022
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 06:00:03 +0000
SPC Jun 17, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM
CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
At least scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the
central and southern Rockies, Upper Great Lakes, and Florida Peninsula
on Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper pattern is forecast to be in place over the CONUS
early Sunday, characterized by expansive upper ridging centered over
MO and two flanking upper troughs. This trough/ridge/trough pattern
will persist throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward.
By early Monday morning, the upper ridge is expected to extend across
the MS Valley into Ontario, with the eastern upper trough off the
Northeast coast and the western upper trough extended from the
northern Rockies through the Great Basin.
Most prevalent features within the surface pattern will likely be
expansive ridging centered over the Upper Great Lakes and lee
troughing across the High Plains. The eastern CONUS ridging will
preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the region. The only
exception is across portions of the Upper Great Lakes, where afternoon
storm development is possible ahead of a subtle shortwave cresting the
upper ridge.
The highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the central
and southern Rockies where modest moisture and daytime heating will
result in diurnal destabilization. High-based thunderstorms may
develop near the lee trough across portions of the High Plains, with
an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts. However, uncertainty
regarding coverage limits forecast confidence, precluding the
delineation of any areas.
..Mosier.. 06/17/2022
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 07:11:11 +0000
SPC Jun 17, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334
AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an expansive upper
ridge will be centered over the Lower MS Valley early Monday morning,
with an upper trough farther west over the northern Rockies. This
upper trough is then forecast to eject northeastward through the
northwestern periphery of the upper ridge on D4/Monday, before
continuing eastward across southern Saskatchewan and Ontario on
D5/Tuesday. Some dampening of the northern periphery of upper ridge is
anticipated as the shortwave trough moves through, but it should still
remain centered over the Lower MS Valley. Beginning on D6/Wednesday,
the upper ridging is expected to build westward, and it will likely
cover much of the southern third of the CONUS by D8/Friday.
Thunderstorms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest on D4/Monday ahead of the ejecting shortwave. Strong buoyancy
will likely be in place, but the stronger mid-level will be displaced
west of the thunderstorms, casting some doubt on severe thunderstorm
coverage. This uncertainty precludes introducing an outlook area with
this forecast.
Some severe potential will persist through the remainder of the week
as subtle shortwave troughs move through the northern periphery of the
ridge, but predictability of these subtle waves is low.
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 08:37:05 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150
AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough along the West Coast will progress into the
Great Basin today. Strong mid-level winds will overspread the region
in conjunction with a surface trough deepening within the Basin into
the northern Rockies. To the east, an upper-level ridge will remain
across the Plains. Mid-level moisture will push westward and a modest
lee trough will develop in the central/northern High Plains.
...Great Basin...
Very strong surface winds of 25-35 mph, primarily in Nevada/Utah, are
expected to develop within the region by afternoon. Regional soundings
from Thursday night show single digit RH and this can be expected to
continue today. Areas of extremely critical fire weather are possible
given these meteorological conditions. Fuel sparseness where these
conditions are expected may limit a greater fire weather risk.
Mid/upper-level clouds will also be on the increase during the day,
particularly in the westernmost areas.
Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible along the western periphery of
the mid-level moisture. Areas most likely to be affected are from the
Four Corners into southwestern Wyoming.
...Central High Plains...
Elevated to near-critical fire weather is expected for parts of the
region. Afternoon RH will fall to 15-20% with the lee trough promoting
15-20 mph winds.
..Wendt.. 06/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 06:52:29 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152
AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN...
...Synopsis...
A similar upper-level pattern to Friday will persist within the Great
Basin on Saturday. Some modest weakening of the mid-level winds can be
expected by the end of the day, however. Similarly, the ridge in the
Plains will continue to push mid-level moisture into the eastern Great
Basin. A surface trough will remain within the central Basin while
another lee trough in the central High Plains will deepen during the
day.
...Great Basin...
Despite a modest drop-off in the mid-level winds, widespread critical
conditions are again expected for southern/eastern Nevada into western
Utah. Winds of 20-30 mph will overlap with single digit RH in the
Nevada and around 15% in western Utah.
Thunderstorms are also possible within the Four Corners vicinity.
With the additional mid-level moisture working its way north and west,
it appears that dry thunderstorms will become more isolated than on
Friday.
...Central High Plains...
Dry southerly return flow is expected again on the western flank of
the surface ridge. The lee trough that will develop will promote 15-20
mph winds. RH will probably fall to 15-20%, but this is more uncertain
with eastward extent. Elevated to perhaps locally critical fire
weather will occur.
..Wendt.. 06/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 06:54:28 +0000
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