| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 26.06.22 07:33z 321 Lines 15080 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9378_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 220622/1630Z 9378@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Wed, 22 Jun 2022
08:50:02 +0000 Wed, 22 Jun 2022 08:50:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 22 08:50:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Wed Jun 22 08:50:02 UTC 2022. Wed, 22
Jun 2022 08:49:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jun 22 08:50:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 22
08:50:02 UTC 2022. Wed, 22 Jun 2022 08:49:05 +0000
SPC Jun 22, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM
CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage and hail will be
possible today across parts of the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. Marginally severe wind and hail may also occur in parts
of Oklahoma and Kansas. A few strong wind gusts could also occur in
southern California.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level low will retrograde westward today toward the
Mid-Atlantic coast, as a shortwave trough moves across the western
Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward
across the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, moderate to strong instability will be in place by midday.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon along and
ahead of the front, from southern Ohio northeastward into central
Pennsylvania and southern New York. Several clusters of strong
thunderstorms will likely move southward across the central
Appalachians this afternoon. MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range,
along with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range and 0-3 km lapse
rates around 8.0 C/km will result in an isolated wind-damage threat.
The wind-damage threat is expected to spread southward across western
Maryland and into north-central Virginia during the mid to late
afternoon.
Further southwest across the lower Ohio Valley, moderate instability
will likely be in place by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop along and ahead of the front, with convection moving
southeastward across the lower Ohio Valley. In spite of the moderate
instability, deep-layer shear will be relatively weak keeping most of
the convection unorganized. A few strong wind gusts could occur in
areas where low-level lapse rates become the steepest.
...Oklahoma/Kansas...
A large area of high pressure will remain over the southern Plains
today. To the north of the high, an axis of moderate instability is
expected by afternoon from southwest Missouri extending westward
across southern Kansas. Thunderstorms should develop along the western
edge of the stronger instability across southwest Kansas and northwest
Oklahoma during the mid to late afternoon. These storms will move
slowly eastward along the instability corridor, with a couple small
multicell clusters possible. The instability combined with a deep
moist boundary layer will be favorable for marginally severe wind
gusts as low-level lapse rates peak in the late afternoon. Hail may
also occur with the stronger updrafts.
...Southern California...
An upper-level low will approach the middle California coast today.
At the surface, a trough will deepen from southern California
northward into the San Joaquin Valley. Warming surface temperatures
will result in a pocket of instability near the surface trough early
this afternoon. Thunderstorms that form within this pocket of
instability could have a severe potential, due to the nearly dry
adiabatic layer from the surface to 700 mb. The inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles could be favorable for marginally severe wind
gusts during the mid afternoon.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 06/22/2022
Read more
Wed, 22 Jun 2022 05:50:18 +0000
SPC Jun 22, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NE
AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS...
CORRECTED FOR MISSING 5% HAIL AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, include tornadoes,
are possible across portions of the central Plains Thursday. Isolated
severe thunderstorms are also possible across the northern High
Plains, and Upper Midwest.
...Central Plains...
Upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the southern Plains
early Thursday morning. This upper ridge, which will extend across
much of the southern third of the CONUS, is expected to remain largely
in place throughout the period. A subtle shortwave trough will likely
traverse the northern periphery of this upper ridge, moving from the
central Rockies eastward across the central Plains throughout the
period. An associated surface low should move eastward just ahead of
this shortwave. Ascent attendant to the shortwave combined with
low-level convergence in the vicinity of this surface low and strong
buoyancy will likely result thunderstorm development.
Upper flow will be modest, but surface winds will be
southerly/southeasterly, resulting in veering wind profiles and
moderate vertical shear. This shear should be sufficient for storm
organization and at least few strong to severe storms. Given the
high-based character of most storms, the primary severe risk is strong
wind gusts. More favorable low-level moisture will be in place with
eastern extent, amid moderate southeasterly surface winds. As such,
any mature surface-based storms that persist into this environment
could produce tornadoes.
...Northern High Plains...
Given the presence of the expansive upper ridging over the southern
CONUS, any stronger westerly flow aloft will be displaced north to the
international border vicinity. A shortwave trough embedded within this
stronger flow is forecast to move from British Columbia into
Saskatchewan. Enhanced southwesterly flow throughout the base of this
shortwave should expand across the northern Rockies. Modest
large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture coincident with
this increasing mid-level flow could support a few strong
thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. Isolated hail is
possible as well.
...Eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest...
Strong buoyancy is expected to develop Thursday afternoon as a result
of ample low-level moisture, strong daytime heating, and relatively
cool temperatures aloft. A subtle shortwave trough may impinge upon
this air mass, creating enough lift for isolated thunderstorms. Given
the robust buoyancy, a conditional risk for damaging wind gusts and/or
hail will exist.
...Great Basin...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the Great
Basin as mid-level moisture and ascent both increase ahead of an upper
low moving into the region. Thunderstorm strength will likely be
tempered by modest buoyancy and shear, but high storm bases could
still result in a strong wind gust or two. Coverage is currently
expected to remain below 5%.
..Mosier.. 06/22/2022
Read more
Wed, 22 Jun 2022 06:23:59 +0000
SPC Jun 22, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM
CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest Friday afternoon and evening. A few severe
thunderstorms are also possible across the Middle/Lower Missouri
Valley Friday evening and overnight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Guidance is in good agreement that expansive upper ridging will remain
in place across the southern CONUS throughout the period. Farther
north, a shortwave trough, initially extending from the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border into the northern Rockies, is forecast to
progress eastward throughout the day, while deepening/maturing. By
early Saturday morning, this shortwave is expected to feature a more
vertically stacked character, with the mid-level low centered near the
central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. As this system progresses
eastward, strong mid-level flow throughout its base will spread
eastward into the northern Plains.
A modest surface trough is expected to extend between a pair of
surface lows, one over western SD and the other over western KS, early
Friday. An eastward/southeastward progressing cold front associated
with the previously mentioned shortwave is expected to overtake this
trough, pushing across much of the northern and central Plains.
Thunderstorm development is possible ahead of this front, particularly
over the northern Plains, during the afternoon. Moderate vertical
shear and strong buoyancy should support some isolated strong to
severe storms, but the stronger shear will be displaced west of the
front, likely limiting overall severe coverage.
A strengthening low-level jet Friday evening will contribute to strong
warm-air advection to the north and east of the KS surface low as it
moves eastward. Ample moisture and steep lapse rates will support
robust buoyancy amid this warm-air advection. Elevated thunderstorms
are expected within this environment across eastern NE, western IA,
and northwest MO. A few of these storms could be severe.
..Mosier.. 06/22/2022
Read more
Wed, 22 Jun 2022 07:33:14 +0000
SPC Jun 22, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346
AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Consensus within the latest medium-range guidance places a mature
cyclone near the central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border early
D4/Saturday. This system is then forecast to progress eastward across
south-central and southeastern Canada and the Great Lakes from
D4/Saturday through D6/Monday. A cold front associated with this
cyclone is expected to progress eastward/southeastward across the
central Plains, Upper/Mid MS Valley, and Upper Midwest on D4/Saturday.
Western portion of this front will stall on D5/Sunday, but the central
and eastward portions are expected to continue eastward/southeastward
across the OH and TN Valley and Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible
along this front as it moves eastward/southeastward, particularly on
D5/Sunday. This front will be displaced ahead of the stronger shear,
limiting the large-scale severe potential.
Westerly flow will remain in the vicinity of the international border
through the middle of next week, to the north of the persistent
southern CONUS upper ridge. Several shortwaves may progress through
this flow, but guidance continues to show variability on their
strength, speed, and timing, limiting predictability.
Read more
Wed, 22 Jun 2022 08:49:05 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122
AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging centered within the Plains will retrograde
westward during the day today. A weak cut-off low, currently off the
southern California coast on water vapor imagery, will remain
quasi-stationary before being pushed northeastward by the retrograding
ridge late in the period.
Fire weather concerns will be focused within southern California and
within a small portion of the southern Great Basin. Both areas will
see potential for a few dry thunderstorms as moisture continues to
work its way westward around the ridge. Parts of southern Utah into
far northwest Arizona will likely have lower PWAT values and see more
traditional dry thunderstorms. Within southern California, current GPS
PWAT retrievals show values over 1 inch nudging into the southern
border. Forecast soundings tomorrow indicate that PWAT values will
likely be near or exceed 1 inch over much of the area. Furthermore,
storm coverage could approach scattered categorical designation given
the influence of the cut-off low. Low-levels will be quite dry.
Dewpoint depressions of 40-50 F are depicted in forecast soundings
tomorrow afternoon. Even with fairly high PWAT values, a mix of wet
and isolated dry storms is likely given the low-level moisture
profile. Area fuels are generally at or slightly below seasonal
dryness and will support ignition.
..Wendt.. 06/22/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 22 Jun 2022 06:23:29 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123
AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist in the Plains and Midwest on
Thursday. Farther west, the subtle shortwave trough in central
California will move northeastward through central Nevada/western
Utah. This feature will phase with a broader trough that will swing
through the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies.
...Great Basin...
The upper-level ridge will continue to push mid-level moisture into
the region. The timing of the mid-level shortwave trough will be
favorable for widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms from the
Sierra into east-central Nevada and adjacent west-central Utah.
Storms farther west have a greater potential for being a mix of wet
and dry storms as mid/upper-level winds will be weaker within the
weakening closed low. Storms within eastern Nevada are more likely to
be on the dry side of the spectrum due to the modestly stronger flow
aloft ahead of the subtle trough. Fuel information from GBCC shows
that there are critically dry fuels in southern Nevada that
transitions to less receptive fuels in east-central/northeast Nevada.
Scattered dry thunderstorms appear that they will have only small
overlap with critically dry fuels.
..Wendt.. 06/22/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 22 Jun 2022 06:25:28 +0000
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
NEW BPQ FREEBSD 64BIT POWER SERVER - ARGENTINA
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
