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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.04.19 07:03z 145 Lines 7702 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22267_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 21 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190421/0700Z 22267@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210
AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail or wind is possible across
parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening, mainly from
northern Kansas into Nebraska.
...Synopsis... An upper low will fill as it remains nearly
stationary across the Mid Atlantic, with high pressure providing
stable conditions generally east of the Mississippi river. Over
the Plains, southerly surface winds will increase as an upper
trough amplifies over the Southwest and low pressure remains over
the central Plains. A narrow plume of mid to upper 50s dewpoints
will develop from TX into southeast NE, resulting in marginal
destabilization mainly over KS and NE.
Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward into eastern CO and
western NE during the day, and into the OK and TX Panhandles by
Monday morning. In addition, a weak midlevel disturbance will aid
cooling aloft over CO. The combination of strong heating, sufficient
instability and lift with the front and shortwave trough will result
in scattered afternoon storms, a few of which may produce marginally
severe hail or wind.
...Central Plains... Strong heating will lead to a steep lapse
rate environment across the Four Corners states, as well as the
central and southern High Plains. By mid afternoon, showers and
weak thunderstorms are likely to form along the Front Range and
into northeastern CO along the cold front. Wind profiles will
be weak, but significant outflow is likely which will move into
northwest KS. Locally gusty winds, perhaps a severe wind gust,
will be possible.
To the east, better low-level moisture will exist, supporting
potentially strong storms capable of hail as well as wind. Some of
this activity will form near the front, but may also evolve out of
leading outflow surging east out of CO. Shear profiles will not be
particularly favorable for any sustained severe threat, but a few
reports of hail and wind are anticipated.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 04/21/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239
AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated
wind damage may develop across parts of the southern High Plains
late Monday afternoon through the overnight period.
...Southern High Plains... An upper-level low will move across the
Desert Southwest on Monday as southwest mid-level flow remains in
place across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to stall in west Texas, attendant from a low in southeast
New Mexico. The models are now in better agreement, developing
instability along and south of the front with thunderstorms
initiating along the front in the late afternoon. This convection is
forecast to spread northeastward to the cooler side of the boundary
in the southern Texas Panhandle during the evening. More convection
is forecast to initiate and persist into the overnight period. NAM
forecast soundings from north of Lubbock into the southeastern Texas
Panhandle at 03Z/Tuesday show MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/Kg
with about 55 Kt of effective shear. This should be sufficient for
a severe threat. Cells may be surface-based upon initiation with a
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. As the
storms move to the north side of the boundary, large hail will be
the primary threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Broyles.. 04/21/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough located over the lower Great
Basin will slowly migrate southward throughout the forecast period.
Mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this system will be
marginally enhanced, allowing persistent west-southwesterly winds
of 35-45 kt to overspread much of the Southwest into the southern
High Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur along
the central High Plains, with an area of low pressure developing
in western Kansas by mid-day and strengthening throughout the
afternoon. A dryline will extend south of the low and propagate
eastward throughout the afternoon.
...Southwest into the southern High Plains... Elevated to critical
fire-weather conditions will develop west of the dryline across
portions West Texas, southern and northeastern New Mexico and
far southeastern Arizona. During the afternoon, sustained winds
of 15-25 mph will develop, gusting to 35 mph, while RH values
fall into the teens and single digits over a widespread area. A
minor expansion was made to the elevated area across portions of
the Texas Panhandle to account for a more eastward progression of
the dryline than indicated previously in the guidance. Elsewhere,
the elevated and critical areas have been maintained and confined
based on limited fuel receptiveness and availability.
..Karstens.. 04/21/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis... The upper-level trough located over the Desert
Southwest will become quasi-stationary and more vertically
stacked throughout the forecast period. Once again, flow aloft
will be marginally enhanced but reside mostly outside of the
CONUS. However some enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will
overspread the southernmost portions of the southern High Plains. At
the surface, a cold front will sag southward across the central
High Plains, impinging upon portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles. Meanwhile, a remnant dryline will extend south across
portions of West Texas.
...Southern New Mexico... Elevated fire-weather conditions are
expected to develop across a small region of southern New Mexico,
where fuels remain marginally receptive. Sustained winds of 10-15
mph, gusting to 20 mph, and minimum RH values approaching the teens
and single digits should develop for at least a few hours during
the afternoon.
..Karstens.. 04/21/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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