| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 26.06.22 07:33z 302 Lines 13585 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9433_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220623/1630Z 9433@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 23 Jun 2022
08:54:02 +0000 Thu, 23 Jun 2022 08:54:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 23 08:54:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Thu Jun 23 08:54:02 UTC 2022. Thu, 23
Jun 2022 08:53:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Jun 23 08:54:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 23
08:54:02 UTC 2022. Thu, 23 Jun 2022 08:53:04 +0000
SPC Jun 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM
CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the central Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and
severe gusts will be the primary threats with the stronger storms.
...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will reside over the northwestern and northeastern
portions of the country today, while ridging continues to dominate
across a large portion of the remainder of the country.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift eastward across the
northwestern quarter of the country. Meanwhile, a weak front will arc
from the southeastern U.S. westward across the central Gulf Coast
region, and then northwestward into the central Plains.
...Central Plains...
Scattered to isolated thunderstorm redevelopment is forecast across
the central Plains this afternoon, as diurnal heating/destabilization
occur in the vicinity of a remnant/weak warm front shifting northward
across the area. Aided by a belt of moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level
flow associated with a weak vort max progged to shift across the area
during the afternoon, a few stronger storms will likely evolve. As
such, risk for hail and a few strong/damaging gusts is apparent, with
risk forecast to gradually wane after sunset.
...North-central states...
As a series of subtle mid-level cyclonic disturbances cross the
northern plains, within a belt of moderate westerlies on the north
side of the prevailing upper ridge, isolated to scattered/primarily
diurnal convection is expected across the north-central CONUS. In
conjunction with moderate destabilization, flow aloft will likely
prove sufficient to allow a couple of stronger storms to evolve,
accompanied by locally strong/gusty winds during the afternoon and
evening hours.
...Central Montana...
Weak afternoon destabilization is forecast ahead of a cold front
forecast to shift across central Montana during the afternoon,
modulated by scant (40s dewpoints) low-level moisture. Still,
isolated high-based storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon, as mid-level height falls spread across the region ahead of
the slowly advancing short-wave trough.
Given potential for sub-cloud evaporation, and enhanced mid-level flow
promoting rather fast-moving storms, a few stronger wind gusts are
expected during the afternoon and early evening time frame.
...Great Basin...
An upper low initially over California will gradually devolve into an
open wave, as it shifts into Nevada through the day. As an associated
zone of subtle cooling aloft spreads eastward across Nevada/Utah, atop
a diurnally heating boundary layer, weak/high-based instability will
evolve, fostering development of showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Given the deep mixed layer, a few evaporatively aided stronger
gusts can be expected during the afternoon and early evening hours.
..Goss/Wendt.. 06/23/2022
Read more
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 05:51:16 +0000
SPC Jun 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest Friday afternoon and evening. A few severe thunderstorms are
also possible across the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley Friday evening
and overnight, and southern Georgia and northern Florida Friday
afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A pair of phased shortwave troughs are expected over the northwest
CONUS/southwest Canada early Friday morning. The southernmost
shortwave will begin the period over the Great Basin before
progressing eastward through the central High Plains. The northernmost
shortwave is expected to rotate through the base of maturing
mid-latitude cyclone, moving across MT into the northern Plains.
A surface low associated with the northern shortwave is expected to
deepen across ND as it progresses northeastward towards the southern
Manitoba/Ontario border. At it does, a cold front attendant to this
low will sweep eastward/southeastward across the northern Pains into
the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Another surface low is forecast
to begin the day over northwest KS before moving eastward into the Mid
MO Valley.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will likely be in place across the
region ahead of the approaching front. The low-level moisture combined
with moderate daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will
result in robust buoyancy. As a result, thunderstorms with strong
updrafts capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are expected to
develop along the front, as well as along a preceding pre-frontal
trough. The stronger shear will be displaced west of the front, and a
predominantly multicellular/clustered, outflow-dominant storm mode is
anticipated.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the southern
shortwave discussed in the synopsis. A few strong wind gusts are
possible as these storms move across eastern WY and adjacent portions
of western SD and the NE Panhandle.
...Mid/Lower MO Valley...
A strengthening low-level jet Friday evening will contribute to strong
warm-air advection to the north and east of the KS surface low as it
moves eastward. Ample moisture and steep lapse rates will support
robust buoyancy amid this warm-air advection. Elevated thunderstorms
are expected within this environment across eastern NE, western IA,
and northwest MO. A few of these storms could be severe, with hail as
the primary threat.
...Southern GA...Northern/Central FL...FL Panhandle...
A moist and very warm air mass is expected to be in place across
Southern GA/FL Panhandle and into northern/central FL on Friday
afternoon. Surface temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints
in the mid 70s will result in robust buoyancy. Vertical shear will be
very weak, leading to an outflow-dominant storm mode. A few damaging
wind gusts resulting from water-loaded downdrafts are possible.
..Mosier.. 06/23/2022
Read more
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 06:03:09 +0000
SPC Jun 23, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM
CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and
evening across portions of the central Plains and middle Mississippi
Valley.
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border southward into the central High Plains
early Saturday morning. This shortwave trough is expected to progress
eastward throughout the day, ending the period extending from western
Ontario southwestward into the Mid MO Valley. A surface low associated
with this shortwave will move just ahead of it, progressing across
northern Ontario throughout the day. At the same time, an attendant
cold front will sweep southeastward across the Upper/Mid MS Valley and
central Plains.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near this front early Saturday morning
across the Upper MS Valley. Additional thunderstorms are possible
along this front during the afternoon and evening, particularly from
northeast KS into eastern IA/northern IL where more favorable
thermodynamic conditions will exist. Vertical shear will be modest in
the vicinity of the front, but the buoyancy should still be strong
enough from northeast KS into eastern IA/northern IL for a few robust
updrafts capable of hail and/damaging wind gusts.
Numerous thunderstorms are also possible across NM and CO as moderate
mid-level moisture persist within the western periphery of an upper
ridge centered over the Mid-South. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are also possible from the central Gulf Coast into FL, as the air mass
diurnally destabilizes.
..Mosier.. 06/23/2022
Read more
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 07:17:12 +0000
SPC Jun 23, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350
AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave
trough will extend from western Ontario southwestward into the central
Plains early D4/Sunday. This shortwave is forecast to progress
eastward across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes/Northeast from
D4/Sunday and D6/Tuesday. A cold front associated with this system
will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the
southern Plains early D4/Sunday. Western portion of this front will
stall on D4/Sunday, but the central and eastward portions are expected
to continue eastward/southeastward across the OH and TN Valley and
Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves
eastward/southeastward, but the front will be displaced ahead of the
stronger shear, limiting the large-scale severe potential.
Westerly flow will remain in the vicinity of the international border
through the middle of next week, to the north of the persistent
southern CONUS upper ridge. Several shortwaves may progress through
this flow, including one that could move into the Upper Midwest on
D6/Tuesday, promoting thunderstorm development. The magnitude of
buoyancy ahead of this system is uncertain, limiting the
predictability of the severe potential.
Read more
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 08:53:07 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154
AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
The weak cutoff low currently over the central California coast will
slowly progress northeastward overnight Wednesday into this morning.
This low is expected to phase with the broader cyclonic flow over the
Northwest and accelerate through Nevada and Utah by Friday morning.
Fire weather concerns will be focused within the western and central
Great Basin today. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible.
The greatest storm coverage is expected to be across east-central
Nevada into far west-central Utah. GPS PWAT retrievals show a sharp
gradient moving northward through the lower Colorado River Valley. By
afternoon, PWAT values in the 0.5-0.75 inch range across most of
central Nevada. Slower storm motions along/near the Sierra should help
produce greater wetting rainfall. To the east of the subtle trough
enhanced mid-level winds will lead to greater potential for dry
thunderstorms. There is still enough uncertainty in greater coverage
of dry thunderstorms to withhold scattered dry thunderstorm
highlights.
..Wendt.. 06/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 06:56:29 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155
AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A subtle shortwave trough will move through the Great Basin and into
the central High Plains on Friday. This trough will promote a weak lee
cyclone to develop in western Kansas. Areas of dry and breezy
conditions are possible in the southern High Plains as a result.
Upper-level winds will remain weak underneath the ridge, however.
Winds of 15-20 mph are possible in the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma. RH in these areas is expected to be 20-25% where the
stronger winds are forecast. With the overlap of these conditions also
potentially short in duration, no highlights will be added.
..Wendt.. 06/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 06:57:19 +0000
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
NEW BPQ FREEBSD 64BIT POWER SERVER - ARGENTINA
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
