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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.06.22 07:33z 267 Lines 11634 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9282_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE6NAS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220620/1630Z 9282@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 20 Jun 2022
08:43:02 +0000 Mon, 20 Jun 2022 08:43:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 20 08:43:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Mon Jun 20 08:43:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 20
Jun 2022 08:42:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Jun 20 08:43:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 20
08:43:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 20 Jun 2022 08:42:04 +0000
SPC Jun 20, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and/or damaging wind gusts are
possible from the northern High Plains across the Dakotas and into the
Upper Midwest today.
...Synopsis...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough continuing to progress
eastward within the northern Rockies and the northern Great Basin.
This feature will eventually begin to pivot northeastward and
accelerate towards Monday evening/overnight. At the surface, a cold
front currently analyzed within the central Dakotas southwestward into
the central High Plains will also shift eastward into the Upper
Midwest through the day.
...Dakotas/Minnesota...
Strong heating ahead of the front in an airmass with mid/upper 60s to
low 70s dewpoints will lead to large buoyancy (2000-4000 J/kg) by
afternoon. Scattered storms are expected to develop within the Red
River Valley vicinity by mid-afternoon. Within the warm sector,
effective shear magnitudes may only reach 20-30 kts and remain
parallel to the front. Initial storms would be capable of marginally
severe hail before growing upscale with time and becoming more of a
wind damage threat. Once a cold pool develops, storms would likely
push eastward into northern Minnesota.
Farther west, some of the development within the High Plains may track
along the front. Aided by the ejecting mid-level speed max, a cluster
or two could become better organized within central South Dakota and
track northeastward. This scenario could mean an area of greater wind
damage potential. However, it is not clear whether this activity will
be able to remain in the warm sector or exist just to the cool side of
the front.
...Northern High Plains...
Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints remain within eastern Montana Sunday
evening. This moisture is expected to linger into today. While some
mixing is expected, at least low 50s F dewpoints should remain this
afternoon. Cold air aloft should allow 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE to
develop. Storms are expected to initiate along a weak surface boundary
within the High Plains. Other development may occur within the higher
terrain and move into greater moisture to the east. Effective shear
east of the upper-level low will be a modest 30-40 kts and be parallel
to the boundary. Mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs will mean
large hail will be possible with the more discrete structures.
Otherwise, updraft seeding/storm interactions will likely lead to some
upscale growth of this activity as it moves east into the Dakotas.
Wind damage would become more a threat as this occurs.
Close to the upper-level low, a few storms may develop. Cold
temperatures aloft and long hodographs suggest that a marginally sever
hail and wind damage threat would be possible despite more limited
buoyancy.
..Wendt/Goss.. 06/20/2022
Read more
Mon, 20 Jun 2022 06:03:16 +0000
SPC Jun 20, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM
CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms exists from
northeast Kansas into northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging (centered over the Mid-South) is forecast to
extend from the southern Plains across the Lower MS Valley and
Southeast, and across the OH Valley into Quebec. A shortwave trough
will likely progress through the northwestern and northern periphery
of this upper ridge, moving from the northern Plains through the Upper
Midwest into central Ontario. At the surface, a low associated with
the shortwave will progress northeastward ahead of it as an attendant
cold front moves southeastward across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and
Mid/Lower MO Valley.
...Lower/Mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest...
Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from eastern KS
northeastward into southern WI, ahead of the approaching cold front.
Strong daytime heating will bring surface temperatures into the 90s,
resulting in robust buoyancy ahead of this front Tuesday afternoon and
evening. However, southwesterly surface winds will limit convergence
along the front, and warm low to mid-level temperatures will result in
convective inhibition. Convective initiation is still anticipated
along the front, but these factors will likely keep coverage isolated
to widely scattered. Most probable areas for initiation appear to be
across northeast KS, where surface temperatures will be warmest, and
in the vicinity of the WI/IA/IL border intersection, where less
boundary-layer mixing will keep surface dewpoints higher.
Storm organization will be limited by modest vertical shear, as the
stronger vertical shear will remain displaced north and west of the
cold front. Even so, ample buoyancy suggests any more persistent
updrafts could produce hail and/or damaging downburst winds.
..Mosier.. 06/20/2022
Read more
Mon, 20 Jun 2022 06:05:08 +0000
SPC Jun 20, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM
CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging covering much of the southern CONUS is
forecast to be centered over the southern Plains Wednesday morning. A
shortwave trough will likely be progressing through the northern
periphery of this ridge, beginning the day over western Ontario and
the Upper Great Lakes before continuing eastward into western Quebec
and the Lower Great Lakes.
...OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Progression of this shortwave will push an attendant cold front
southeastward across the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes region during
the afternoon and evening. A warm and moist air mass will likely be in
place ahead of this cold front, with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low
70s and temperatures reaching the 90s during the late afternoon. These
thermodynamic conditions will support a very unstable air mass, and
the potential for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Vertical
shear throughout much of the region will be weak, limiting storm
organization, but the robust buoyancy will still support robust
updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and/hail. Disorganized storm
mode is currently expected to limit the coverage and persistence of
any severe storms, with only isolated coverage currently anticipated.
..Mosier.. 06/20/2022
Read more
Mon, 20 Jun 2022 07:14:23 +0000
SPC Jun 20, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339
AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging will
remain anchored in place across the southern third of the CONUS
through the weekend. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move
across southern Canada and the international border vicinity from
D4/Thursday through D7/Sunday. Some dampening of the upper ridge is
possible as this shortwave impinges on the its northeastern periphery
on D7/Sunday and D8/Monday.
Most recent guidance suggests that a seasonally strong cold front
(associated with the southern Canada shortwave) will push
southward/southeastward into the central Plains and Upper Midwest on
D5/Friday, and into the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley on
D6/Saturday. A warm and deeply mixed boundary layer will precede this
front, likely limiting buoyancy, and the stronger mid-level flow and
vertical shear will be displaced north. These factors should keep the
overall severe thunderstorm coverage isolated.
Read more
Mon, 20 Jun 2022 08:43:00 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152
AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The trough within the Great Basin and northern Rockies will continue
east and eject into the central/northern Plains later today. A surface
trough in the northern Plains into the central High Plains will remain
moderately strong. In the Northwest, high pressure will build at the
surface.
...Central High Plains...
Some potential for locally elevated conditions will exist during the
afternoon. The surface high building west of the Divide and the
surface trough to the east, aided by the strong mid-level winds, will
drive strong downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies from eastern
Wyoming into parts of central Colorado. 15-25 mph winds are possible
in this region, particularly in parts of southeastern Wyoming where
the mid-level jet will be during the afternoon. RH of 10-15% is
possible within the foothills with values closer to 20% away from the
terrain. Given current fuel reports from these areas and some light
rain observed in southeast Wyoming on Sunday afternoon, no highlights
will be added.
..Wendt.. 06/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 20 Jun 2022 06:55:35 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153
AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will build across the Southeast and into the
Plains. With this upper-level pattern, the surface pressure pattern is
expected to remain disorganized and weak across areas with dry fuels.
Fire weather risk appears low on Tuesday.
..Wendt.. 06/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 20 Jun 2022 06:56:24 +0000
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