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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.06.22 07:33z 347 Lines 16652 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9475_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<GB7CIP<EI2GYB<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220624/1630Z 9475@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 24 Jun 2022
08:54:02 +0000 Fri, 24 Jun 2022 08:54:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 24 08:54:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Fri Jun 24 08:54:02 UTC 2022. Fri, 24
Jun 2022 08:53:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Jun 24 08:54:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 24
08:54:02 UTC 2022. Fri, 24 Jun 2022 08:53:04 +0000
SPC Jun 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, very large hail,
and a couple of tornadoes are possible across the northern
Plains/upper Midwest region this afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
Complex upper troughing -- comprised of several smaller-scale
disturbances -- is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain
West during the day, and then into/across the northern and central
Plains. With expansive upper ridging across roughly the southern half
of the country, a belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies will
reside over the north-central states.
At the surface, progression of the upper trough will support eastward
advance of a lee trough into the central Plains, while a cold front
crosses the northern Rockies and shifts into the northern Plains. As
these boundaries encounter the moist/strongly unstable afternoon
boundary layer over the Plains, widespread thunderstorms and
associated severe risk is expected.
...Northern and central Plains/Upper Midwest...
As southerly low-level flow continues to advect rich low-level
moisture northward, diurnal heating will result in a strongly unstable
environment across the Dakotas and Nebraska, and into Minnesota,
during the afternoon.
As a cold front moves across Montana into western North
Dakota/northwestern South Dakota, afternoon thunderstorm development
will occur. Given the degree of instability, storms are expected to
increase rapidly in coverage, with favorable deep-layer shear
supporting rapid evolution into organized/rotating storms.
Initial supercellular mode supports risk for very large hail and
damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/potentially bowing clusters of
storms are expected to evolve, and thus expect more widespread risk
for very strong/destructive winds. As such, ENH risk is being
introduced across portions of the Dakotas and into Minnesota -- for
both the wind and the hail risk. Storms will continue well into the
evening, with multiple rounds of storms affecting some areas before
storms eventually weaken overnight as they approach the Upper
Mississippi Valley.
Less widespread risk is expected to evolve farther south across
Nebraska -- both with storms developing near an eastward-moving
trough, and with convection moving off the higher terrain to the west.
...The Rockies...
As a weakening mid-level trough moves across Utah into
Wyoming/Colorado, associated/large-scale ascent will support an
increase in convective coverage through the afternoon and into the
evening hours, as weak/high-based instability evolves in conjunction
with diurnal heating.
While deep-layer flow will not be particularly strong, the combination
of 20 to 30 kt mid-level west-southwesterlies promoting longer-lived
updrafts, and a deep mixed layer promoting potential for evaporative
downdraft enhancement, suggests local risk for gusty/damaging winds.
Some of the convection evolving over the higher terrain will spread
into/across the High Plains, eventually encountering greater
instability and posing more substantial wind risk (hence
higher-probability risk across South Dakota and Nebraska).
...Southern Georgia/Florida...
A weak/subtle ribbon of positive vorticity is forecast to shift
southward across the western Atlantic and adjacent southeastern U.S.
today, within weak northerly flow aloft on the eastern fringe of the
dominant upper ridge. This will help to maintain a weak area of
surface low pressure.
In response, expect development of afternoon thunderstorms from
southern Georgia southward into Florida, particularly focused near
sea-breeze boundaries. As storms cluster/merge, and then shift
southward with time, a few strong wind gusts can be expected,
primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours before storms
diurnally diminish.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 06/24/2022
Read more
Fri, 24 Jun 2022 06:04:16 +0000
SPC Jun 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM
CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity late
Saturday afternoon and evening, with a few posing at least some risk
for severe wind and hail.
...Synopsis...
Models indicate that an increasingly blocked regime centered roughly
over the northeastern Pacific will evolve by early this weekend, with
a mid-level low (centered near 40N/145W) still more prominent than the
mid-level high (centered near the Gulf of Alaska) on Saturday. Within
the northern branch of the split downstream flow, at least a couple of
substantive short wave perturbations are forecast to progress through
northwesterly to westerly flow, around the southwestern periphery of
an elongated vortex centered east through north of Hudson Bay.
This includes one trough forecast to shift eastward across Manitoba,
northwestern Ontario, and adjacent portions of the northern Great
Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, providing support for a
deepening surface cyclone migrating across northwestern Ontario
through the James Bay vicinity by 12Z Sunday. In the wake of this
impulse, cool surface ridging appears likely to build southeastward to
the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies. Preceding the leading edge of
the cooler and drier air, a combination of conglomerate convective
outflow and a weak surface cold front may initially extend across the
upper Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains
by early Saturday, before advancing southeastward through the Great
Lakes, middle Mississippi Valley, and central into southern Great
Plains through the period.
While the leading edge of the cooler near-surface air advances
relatively far south through the Great Plains and middle Mississippi
Valley, models indicate that mid/upper ridging will generally be
maintained across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S.
Highest mid-level heights are forecast to linger across the southern
Great Plains and mid/lower Mississippi Valley, with weak embedded
troughing centered over the southern Sierra Nevada and offshore of the
Atlantic Seaboard.
...Middle Mississippi Valley into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Models suggest that the more appreciable probabilities for
thunderstorm development will be largely focused within the milder,
but as moist (or more across the Great Plains) post-initial
outflow/weak surface front regime advancing southward across the
region. Although areas northeast of the Missouri River into the Upper
Midwest will be closest to the modest (30-40 kt around 500 mb)
southern fringe of the westerlies, stronger boundary-layer
destabilization may be confined to areas within weaker flow beneath
the warm mid-level ridging.
Mid/upper forcing for ascent to support thunderstorm initiation also
remains unclear, and may be mostly in association with weak
perturbations migrating within the monsoonal regime around the western
periphery of the mid-level high. However, it is possible that subtle
forcing and perhaps somewhat enhanced shear could contribute to
scattered areas of slowly organizing thunderstorm development, near
and southwest of the southern fringe of the cyclonic mid-level flow
associated with the troughing, late Saturday afternoon and evening.
With models indicating that a plume of steeper mid-level lapse may
contribute to moderate to large CAPE, some of this convection may
become capable of producing severe hail and strong surface gusts near
and after peak thunderstorm intensity.
..Kerr.. 06/24/2022
Read more
Fri, 24 Jun 2022 06:06:05 +0000
SPC Jun 24, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM
CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OHIO...ADJACENT NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK (STATE)...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the middle and upper Ohio
Valley into the lower Great Lakes region late Sunday afternoon and
evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis..
Models indicate that blocking will persist across the northeastern
Pacific vicinity through this period. At mid/upper levels, the high
may become a bit more prominent while shifting toward the southern
Alaska/Yukon border vicinity. The low to its south may slowly weaken
and begin to shift toward the northern Pacific coast. However, short
wave ridging likely will be maintained across much of the Pacific
Northwest.
Within the northern branch of the split downstream flow, a couple of
significant short wave perturbations are forecast to remain
progressive, within northwesterly to westerly flow around an elongated
vortex centered east through north of Hudson Bay. While one begins to
dig into the Canadian Prairies, it appears that the lead impulse may
begin to split into smaller perturbations, with one digging through
the Great Lakes region during the latter half of the period. As this
occurs, cool surface ridging is forecast to continue shifting
southeastward through much of the interior of the U.S., and mid/upper
ridging may become increasingly suppressed to the east the Rockies.
...Southern Great Plains into lower Great Lakes region...
In advance of the primary surface cold frontal zone, a narrow corridor
of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may contribute to
sizable CAPE with daytime heating. The largest CAPE likely will
remain confined to the south of the westerlies, where forcing to
support thunderstorm development remains more unclear. However, in
advance of the digging short wave trough, destabilization, near/ahead
of the deeper surface troughing forecast across parts of the mid/upper
Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes by late Sunday afternoon, may
become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorms. While low-level
wind fields may remain weak, it is possible that mid-level flow could
become marginally conducive to organizing convection posing a risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 06/24/2022
Read more
Fri, 24 Jun 2022 06:58:29 +0000
SPC Jun 24, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350
AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Following an intrusion of cooler low-level air to the east of the
Rockies, along with at least some suppression of mid-level ridging
that may persist into early next week, models suggest that the
mid-level ridging will at least attempt to rebuild across the central
and southern tier of the U.S. into the middle to latter portion of
next week. It appears that this will occur as a deep mid-level low
emerging from the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes turns
southward and southeastward across the Hudson Bay vicinity. At the
same time, upstream flow may remain split around persist ridging
near/inland the Canadian Pacific coast and troughing near or offshore
of the U.S. Pacific coast.
Models do indicate that at least one significant perturbation will
emerge from the offshore troughing and progress inland of the Pacific
Northwest coast early next week, before accelerating eastward and
becoming increasingly deformed within a confluent regime near the
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. While this impulse could contribute to
convective development across parts of the northern intermountain
region and Rockies next Tuesday, it seems that severe weather
potential may be limited by the lack of more substantive moisture
return. Farther east, a plume of elevated mixed-layer air advecting
east of the northern Rockies, coupled with moistening low-level return
flow, may contribute to increasing potential instability across parts
of the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest during the middle
to latter portion of next week. While this regime may become
conditionally supportive of severe thunderstorms, including organized
thunderstorm clusters, the predictability of this development remains
low at this extended time frame.
Read more
Fri, 24 Jun 2022 08:53:09 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139
AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across much of the central and
southern CONUS as a weak mid-level trough traverses the interior West
today. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop across the southern
High Plains in association with surface lee troughing, but fuel
receptiveness is expected to remain modest enough to temper more
widespread wildfire growth. Monsoonal mid-level moisture will continue
to meander across the Southwest into the Four Corners and foster
isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. While storm motion will be slow, forecast soundings depict
inverted-v profiles, where fuels are highly receptive to fire spread.
Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were added where the greatest
chance of drier thunderstorms will overlap the most receptive fuels.
..Squitieri.. 06/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 24 Jun 2022 06:41:28 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200
AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will continue across all of the central/southern CONUS
as a mid-level trough tracks across the Northern Plains
tomorrow/Saturday. Weak surface winds are expected through much of the
southern/central U.S. in association with the upper ridge, limiting
the extent of widespread overlapping dry and windy surface conditions.
The main exception will be across southwest Texas, where Elevated
winds/RH may develop during the afternoon. However, modest fuel
receptiveness should keep the wildfire-spread threat localized.
Mid-level monsoonal moisture will overspread the Great Basin tomorrow
afternoon, with at least isolated slow-moving, but high-based
thunderstorms likely (since a dry boundary layer is expected to extend
up to 500 mb). Isolated lightning-based ignitions may occur since
fuels will be highly receptive, necessitating the addition of isolated
dry thunderstorm highlights.
..Squitieri.. 06/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 24 Jun 2022 07:01:30 +0000
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