| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 26.06.22 07:33z 271 Lines 12237 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9329_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21-JUN.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 220621/1630Z 9329@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 21 Jun 2022
08:43:01 +0000 Tue, 21 Jun 2022 08:43:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 21 08:43:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Tue Jun 21 08:43:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 21
Jun 2022 08:42:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jun 21 08:43:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 21
08:43:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 21 Jun 2022 08:42:04 +0000
SPC Jun 21, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM
CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds
and hail are expected today from central Kansas northeastward to the
Upper Great Lakes.
...Synopsis...
As an upper short-wave trough shifts eastward across the Canadian
Prairie Provinces/northern Plains today, some flattening of the ridge
encompassing much of the U.S. will occur.
At the surface, a cold front will shift slowly eastward across the
Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region, and
southeastward across the Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains through
the day. By late in the period, the front should extend from the
Lower Michigan vicinity west-southwestward to the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle area.
...Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
As the surface cold front progresses slowly eastward/southeastward,
diurnal heating of the very moist pre-frontal warm sector will result
in strong destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE of 3000 to 4000 J/kg
is expected from Upper Michigan to eastern Kansas.
Despite rather weak upper forcing for ascent, isolated storms are
forecast to initiate near the front, though various CAM runs differ in
areas of relatively greater storm coverage. Still, given the degree
of CAPE in tandem with moderate (20 to 25 kt) and weakly veering flow
with height, and a hot/deep mixed layer, potential for damaging winds
will exist with stronger cells. While upscale growth into clusters
could result in a few corridors of more concentrated/severe winds, at
this time uncertainty with respect to any areas of greater risk
precludes an increase to SLGT risk. Still, the MRGL risk area is
being expanding both northeastward and westward, in anticipation of
the potential need for slight risk upgrade across portions of the risk
area in later outlooks.
Local severe risk will likely continue through the afternoon and early
evening, before gradually diminishing through midnight.
..Goss/Wendt.. 06/21/2022
Read more
Tue, 21 Jun 2022 05:52:19 +0000
SPC Jun 21, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NY FINGER
LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...NORTHERN VA...AND MUCH
OF MD...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The highest probability for severe thunderstorms exists from
the New York Finger Lakes southward into the eastern West Virginia
Panhandle, northern Virginia, and much of Maryland.
...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging covering much of the southern CONUS is
forecast to be centered over the southern Plains Wednesday morning. A
shortwave trough is expected to progress through the northern
periphery of this ridge, beginning the day over western Ontario and
the Upper Great Lakes before continuing eastward into western Quebec
and the Lower Great Lakes. Downstream of this shortwave, an upper low
is forecast to begin the period off the Northeast coast, before
gradually drifting westward towards southern New England.
One other feature of interest is an upper low that is expected to
begin the day off the southern CA coast. Some modest northward motion
of this upper low is anticipated during the period, placing the low
near the central CA Coast. Enough mid-level moisture will accompany
this upper low to promote isolated thunderstorms over portions of
central and southern CA.
...OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic...
Progression of the Quebec/Ontario shortwave will push an attendant
cold front southeastward across the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes
region during the afternoon and evening. A warm and moist air mass
will likely be in place ahead of this cold front, with dewpoints in
the upper 60s/low 70s and temperatures reaching the 90s during the
late afternoon. These thermodynamic conditions will support a very
unstable air mass, and the potential for thunderstorms as the front
moves through. Vertical shear throughout much of the region will be
weak, limiting storm organization, but the robust buoyancy will still
support robust updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and/hail.
More southerly low-level flow is expected from just off the northern
Mid-Atlantic Coast into the Lower Great Lakes, resulting in lower
dewpoints and an effective warm front extending from northern NJ to
eastern Lake Ontario. Additionally, enhanced mid-level flow around the
upper low off the Northeast coast will impinge on this corridor,
resulting in a region of stronger vertical shear. The combination of
interacting surface features and stronger shear suggests the region
from Finger Lakes into eastern WV Panhandle/northern VA/central MD
could see higher severe storm coverage, with damaging wind gusts as
the primary risk, as storms develop in NY and progress southward
throughout the afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and a tornado or
two are possible as well.
..Mosier.. 06/21/2022
Read more
Tue, 21 Jun 2022 06:04:08 +0000
SPC Jun 21, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM
CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across northern High
Plains, the central Plains, and Upper Midwest on Thursday.
...Central Plains...
Upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the southern Plains
early Thursday morning. This upper ridge, which will extend across
much of the southern third of the CONUS, is expected to remain largely
in place throughout the period. A subtle shortwave trough will likely
traverse the northern periphery of this upper ridge, moving from the
central Rockies eastward across the central Plains throughout the
period. An associated surface low should move eastward just ahead of
this shortwave. Ascent attendant to the shortwave combined low-level
convergence in the vicinity of this surface low and strong buoyancy
will likely result thunderstorm development. Upper flow will be
modest, but veering wind profiles should still result in enough
vertical shear for storm organization and a few strong to severe
storms. Subtle character of the shortwave and timing difference within
the guidance introduce some uncertainty regarding storm coverage and
the most probable location for development. This uncertainty merits
keeping severe probabilities at 5% for this outlook.
...Northern High Plains...
Given the presence of the expansive upper ridging over the southern
CONUS, any stronger westerly flow aloft will be displaced north to the
international border vicinity. A shortwave trough embedded within this
stronger flow is forecast to move from British Columbia into
Saskatchewan. Enhanced southwesterly flow throughout the base of this
shortwave should expand across the northern Rockies. Modest
large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture coincident with
this increasing mid-level flow could support a few strong
thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.
...Eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest...
Strong buoyancy is expected to develop Thursday afternoon as a result
of ample low-level moisture, strong daytime heating, and relatively
cool temperatures aloft. A weak surface boundary may be exist over the
region, with convergence along the boundary just enough to produce
isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust buoyancy, a few strong
updrafts capable of damaging wind gust and/or hail are possible.
..Mosier.. 06/21/2022
Read more
Tue, 21 Jun 2022 07:40:22 +0000
SPC Jun 21, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339
AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the persistence
of the southern CONUS upper ridging through the weekend and into early
next week. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward
across southern Canada and adjacent portions of the northern CONUS
from D4/Friday through D7/Monday. An attendant surface low will
precede this shortwave, with an associated cold front sweeping
southward across central CONUS on D4/Friday through D6/Sunday, and
southeastward through the eastern CONUS on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday.
Thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves
southward/southeastward, but frontal timing is uncertain and buoyancy
will likely be limited by strong mixing ahead of the front. These
issues limit forecast confidence and overall predictability.
Read more
Tue, 21 Jun 2022 08:42:06 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114
AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be present across a wide swath of the lower
48 today. A cutoff low off the California coast will aid in mid-level
moisture return late in forecast period. The overall fire weather risk
is expected to remain low as weak surface winds are expected across
the areas with the driest fuels.
..Wendt.. 06/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 21 Jun 2022 06:15:30 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116
AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist on Wednesday. The ridge, centered
within the Plains, is expected to retrograde slightly westward during
the day. Along the southern California coast, the weak closed low will
very slowly weaken and progress northeastward during the day. The
combination of the retrograding ridge and the closed low will bring
mid-level moisture northwestward into southern California. Given
strong heating, low-levels will be quite dry. It is possible that
isolated storms will develop within the higher terrain, with perhaps a
few moving into the San Joaquin Valley. Fuels in some locations are
drier than normal for this time of year and would potentially support
lightning-ignited fires.
..Wendt.. 06/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 21 Jun 2022 06:17:28 +0000
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
NEW BPQ FREEBSD 64BIT POWER SERVER - ARGENTINA
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
