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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.07.22 12:05z 322 Lines 15718 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8378_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-JUL22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RBS<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220701/1146Z 8378@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 01 Jul 2022
09:04:02 +0000 Fri, 01 Jul 2022 09:04:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 1 09:04:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 1 09:04:02 UTC 2022.
Fri, 01 Jul 2022 09:03:07 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Jul 1 09:04:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul
1 09:04:02 UTC 2022. Fri, 01 Jul 2022 09:03:06 +0000
SPC Jul 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248
AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging gusts and
isolated large hail will be possible across northeast Wyoming,
southwest South Dakota and northwest Nebraska from late this
afternoon into the evening. Marginally severe thunderstorms are also
possible across parts of the central Plains, the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and southern Great Lakes. A few strong storms may also occur
in the upper Ohio Valley into southern New York.
...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will
remain in place across the central and northern Rockies today, with
west-northwesterly mid-level flow located across the central and
northern Plains. At the surface, moisture advection will strengthen
today across the western part of the central and northern Plains, as
winds turn to the south-southeast. By afternoon, surface dewpoints
may reach the lower to mid 50s F across parts of western Nebraska,
eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. The RAP has a pocket
of moderate instability developing in this area near the Black Hills
by mid afternoon, with MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the instability axis and
move east-southeastward across this corridor of instability from
late afternoon into the evening. In addition to the instability,
forecast soundings have lapse rates in the low to mid-levels peaking
near 9.0 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This
environment will likely be favorable for supercells with large hail
and wind damage.
Further south from the northwestern Texas Panhandle northward into
the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should develop in
the late afternoon. Although instability and shear are forecast to
remain weak, low to mid-level lapse rates will remain very steep. As
cells move east-southeastward out of the higher terrain early this
evening, hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible.
...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western Great
Lakes today, as a cold front advances southeastward into eastern
Kansas, central Missouri, central Illinois and southern Lower
Michigan. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place,
with surface dewpoints in the in the mid to upper 60s F. This should
be enough for a corridor of moderate instability to the south of
the front by afternoon. In addition to the instability, forecast
soundings from Springfield, Missouri northeastward to near Detroit,
Michigan have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, along
with steep low-level lapse rates of 7.0 to 8.0 C/km, could be enough
for an isolated severe threat. Damaging wind gusts and hail will
be possible with the stronger storms. Although a supercell can not
be ruled out in areas that destabilize sufficiently, most of the
convection is expected to remain multicellular due to the veered
winds at low levels.
...Upper Ohio Valley Into Southern New York... West to
west-northwest flow at mid-levels will be in place today across much
of the Northeast. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture will be located from Kentucky northeastward into southern
New York. Moderate instability appears likely to develop along this
corridor by afternoon. In response, thunderstorms should form in
the higher terrain, and move east-southeastward across the central
Appalachians. A second round of storms is forecast to approach the
area from the west-northwest this evening. The greatest combination
of shear and instability is forecast in the late afternoon and early
evening, when low-level lapse rates will be steepest. This could
support a marginal wind-damage and hail threat with the stronger
multicells, mainly in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/01/2022
Read more
Fri, 01 Jul 2022 05:52:25 +0000
SPC Jul 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of producing damaging winds and marginally severe hail should occur
Saturday across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Isolated
severe thunderstorms may also develop across parts of the northern
Plains and interior Pacific Northwest.
...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper trough/low over Ontario and Quebec should move
slowly eastward on Saturday. A belt of enhanced mid-level west-
southwesterly winds should be present over much of the Northeast
into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
progress east-southeastward across these regions through the day.
Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage and
intensity Saturday afternoon along/ahead of the front from southern
New England into VA and vicinity. Even though mid-level lapse rates
should remain modest, diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
will likely support around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by late Saturday
afternoon across these regions.
Sufficiently strong mid-level flow will be present to foster 35-45
kt of deep-layer shear. Accordingly, a mix of multicells and
supercells appears possible. Damaging winds should be the main
threat, especially as cells congeal into small bowing clusters
along/ahead of the front. Marginally severe hail also appears
possible with any supercell that can be sustained.
Farther west into WV/KY and the mid MS Valley, mid-level flow
is expected to be weaker. Still, enough instability and marginal
deep-layer shear should be present along/south of the cold front to
support loosely organized clusters and isolated damaging winds. Some
guidance also suggests that remnant outflow from convection that
may be ongoing Saturday morning across eastern KS into MO may focus
renewed thunderstorm development across parts of the mid MS Valley
and vicinity Saturday afternoon.
...Northern Plains... Upper ridging should extend across much of
the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Saturday. Multiple weak
mid-level perturbations may round the crest of this upper ridge
and advance east-southeastward across the northern Plains through
the period. Given the weak/nebulous large-scale forcing aloft,
it remains unclear how many thunderstorms will develop across this
region. Regardless, weak to locally moderate instability present
along/east of a surface lee trough and strong deep-layer shear
will support a severe hail/wind threat with any convection that
can develop.
With continued uncertainty in overall convective coverage, have
expanded the Marginal Risk to account for probable high-based
thunderstorm development off the higher terrain into southeastern
MT, northeastern WY, and eventually the Dakotas Saturday afternoon
and evening. Any convection that can persist into ND/SD would
potentially pose a better severe threat as it encounters greater
low-level moisture and related instability.
...Pacific Northwest... A closed upper cyclone should remain
centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. A
mid-level perturbation is forecast to move northeastward across
northern CA into the interior Pacific Northwest through the
period. High-based convection should initially develop over the
Cascades in central OR as ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave
trough overspreads this region.
Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain limited, steep
mid-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed boundary layer should aid
convective downdrafts reaching near-severe levels as thunderstorms
spread generally northeastward though the early evening. Isolated,
marginally severe hail may also occur with the strongest cores.
..Gleason.. 07/01/2022
Read more
Fri, 01 Jul 2022 06:02:07 +0000
SPC Jul 1, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230
AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF VIRGINIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear
possible Sunday across parts of Virginia into the Carolinas, and
from parts of the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains.
...Virginia into the Carolinas... An upper trough/low should
continue moving eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast
on Sunday. A surface front should be located over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic at the start of the period. Thunderstorms should
develop through the day along/south of this front across parts of VA
into NC/SC. The environment across this region should be weakly to
moderately unstable, with generally modest mid-level flow. Still,
there appears to be enough effective bulk shear to support some
thunderstorm organization. Isolated damaging winds appear possible
as thunderstorms spread southeastward across these areas through
early Sunday evening.
...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains... Upper
ridging will likely remain prominent over much of the Rockies
and High Plains on Sunday. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow
should be present on the northern periphery of the upper ridge,
mainly across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains. One or more
weak mid-level perturbations cresting the apex of the upper ridge
could support convective development across these regions Sunday
afternoon. Greater low-level moisture and instability is forecast to
be present with eastward extent across the northern/central Plains.
Given the nebulous large-scale forcing, it remains unclear where a
more focused corridor of severe potential may ultimately develop.
Regardless, have opted to include a broad Marginal Risk from the
northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains for the potential
for fairly isolated severe thunderstorms.
..Gleason.. 07/01/2022
Read more
Fri, 01 Jul 2022 07:32:39 +0000
SPC Jul 1, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper ridge is forecast to build
and persist over much of the central CONUS through the extended
forecast period. Organized severe convective potential each day
will likely remain tied to multiple low-amplitude perturbations
aloft rotating around the northern periphery of the upper ridge,
mainly from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and OH
Valley. One such feature may focus some severe potential across parts
of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Day 4/Monday.
Rich low-level moisture and moderate to locally strong instability
should be present in a narrow corridor from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and OH Valley. Depending on the evolution of the
subtle mid-level shortwave troughs, multiple MCS/bowing clusters
moving east-southeastward along the instability axis appear
possible most days next week. If these bowing complexes develop,
then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat. Trying to
time the placement of the subtle shortwave troughs and related
convection is difficult at this extended time frame, with limited
predictability overall. Still, if a signal for robust convective
development becomes clearer in medium-range guidance, then one or
more 15% severe areas may ultimately be needed.
Read more
Fri, 01 Jul 2022 09:03:14 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually approach
the West Coast as an upper ridge remains in place across the
Interior West into the Plains. Under the upper ridge, most locales
should experience relatively quiescent fire weather conditions
on a widespread basis. The one exception would be portions of
central into southern Nevada, where guidance consensus suggests
Elevated surface winds/RH will overspread very dry fuels during the
afternoon. Otherwise, a couple of dry lightning strikes may accompany
scattered thunderstorms developing from a monsoonal environment
across the Intermountain West. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness
or spareness of dry strikes precludes dry thunderstorm highlights.
..Squitieri.. 07/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 01 Jul 2022 06:26:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
...Synopsis... Broad upper riding will persist across much of the
western into the central CONUS as a mid-level trough approaches
the Great Basin tomorrow/Saturday. Surface lee troughing across the
Great Basin will ensue, accompanied by Critical dry/windy surface
conditions across eastern Nevada into far western Utah during the
afternoon. Downslope flow will also support Elevated fire weather
conditions along the lee of the northern Sierra. Monsoonal moisture
will continue to promote scattered thunderstorm development across
the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest by afternoon
peak heating. Dry thunderstorm highlights were withheld due to
overall poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. However,
any dry strikes that can occur in a locally dry fuel bed across
Oregon has a better chance at igniting given the lack of rainfall
in preceding days and because erratic (potentially severe) wind
gusts may accompany the storms. Please see the Day 2 Convective
Outlook for more details on the Pacific Northwest severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 07/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 01 Jul 2022 06:31:28 +0000
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