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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.07.22 11:56z 316 Lines 15241 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8480_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03-JUL22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 220703/1145Z 8480@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 03 Jul 2022
09:04:01 +0000 Sun, 03 Jul 2022 09:04:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 3 09:04:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 3 09:04:02 UTC 2022.
Sun, 03 Jul 2022 09:03:07 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Jul 3 09:04:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul
3 09:04:02 UTC 2022. Sun, 03 Jul 2022 09:03:06 +0000
SPC Jul 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237
AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late
Sunday afternoon through the evening over central and into eastern
Montana. Severe gusts are the primary risk.
...Northern Plains/Central Plains...
Upper ridge will be shunted into the northern High Plains later
today as West Coast trough advances inland during the latter half
of the period. This evolution should result in stronger 500mb
flow translating across the Great Basin into central MT by late
afternoon as weak height falls develop across the northern Rockies.
Significant meridional nature to the mid/high-level flow suggests
a lee surface low/trough will hold close to the northern Rockies,
which will maintain easterly boundary-layer flow across the Plains
of MT into the higher terrain of central MT.
Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the
western Dakotas. This activity should propagate southeast through
sunrise as LLJ focuses into the upper Red River Valley early
in the period. This activity will likely not dissipate within a
warm-advection regime and some threat for wind/hail may accompany
storms as they spread/develop into west-central MN. Scattered
convection may also trail along/north of a surface front near the
ND/SD border which should reinforce the easterly low-level flow
deep into MT.
While this easterly low-level flow may retard boundary-layer heating
a bit, it appears convection should readily develop over the higher
terrain of southwest MT ahead of the aforementioned mid-level speed
max. This activity will spread/develop northeast into an environment
that will be favorably sheared for supercells and long-lived
updrafts. Latest thinking is multiple thunderstorm clusters should
eventually mature over central MT within a thermodynamic environment
favorable for severe, damaging winds. While hail can be expected,
especially early in the convective cycle, it appears bow-type
structures may become the more dominant storm mode, which will lead
to damaging winds as convection spreads downstream.
Farther south, latest water-vapor imagery and model guidance suggest
a weak disturbance will progress across CO into the central High
Plains by early afternoon. Isolated/scattered convection is expected
to develop ahead of this feature, and ample moisture/buoyancy
will reside across this portion of the Plains such that robust
updrafts are expected. Hail/wind are the primary threats with this
afternoon/evening convection.
...Carolinas...
Eastern Canadian/Northeast US trough will shift east early in the
period. Even so, modest northwesterly flow will extend across VA into
eastern NC in conjunction with a surface front that will settle into
this region. Strong surface heating and a boundary draped across
NC into SC should favor a zone of scattered convection that could
generate locally damaging winds.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 07/03/2022
Read more
Sun, 03 Jul 2022 05:41:33 +0000
SPC Jul 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear
possible from parts of the northern Rockies/Plains eastward into the
Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Monday. Large hail and damaging
winds should be the main threats.
...Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level anticyclone should remain
centered over the Southeast Monday, with upper ridging extending
northward over much of the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will
likely be present along/south of a weak front that will extend
from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. Most guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorms
will be ongoing across parts of the Midwest Monday morning. This
activity should be aided by modest low-level warm advection and
a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation. An isolated threat for
hail and strong/gusty winds may persist with this convection as it
spreads generally eastward Monday morning.
In the wake of the morning convection, there is still considerable
uncertainty regarding the placement and overall coverage of severe
thunderstorms across the Midwest Monday afternoon/evening. Mid-level
heights are forecast to remain generally neutral or even rise
slightly downstream of the upper ridge over the northern/central
Plains. Mid-level temperatures are also expected to modestly
increase. Still, even with these potentially limiting factors,
moderate to strong instability will likely develop along/south
of a front and outflow from the morning convection. If additional
thunderstorms can develop, they would probably become severe fairly
quickly given the favorable thermodynamic environment and moderate
to strong effective bulk shear also present.
The primary question is where these robust thunderstorms and
possibly a small bowing cluster may develop late Monday afternoon
and evening, as large-scale ascent will remain nebulous. Even so,
have introduced a Slight Risk for damaging winds and large hail
from southeastern MN/eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL,
where there is a somewhat better signal in guidance for thunderstorm
redevelopment, potentially associated with another weak mid-level
perturbation. But, this remains a fairly low-confidence forecast,
and adjustments to the spatial extent of the Slight Risk may be
needed as mesoscale details become clearer.
...Northern Rockies/Plains... A large-scale upper ridge will
remain in place over the Plains through the period. Another weak
mid-level perturbation should round the apex of the upper ridge
and move east-northeastward across the northern Rockies and Plains
through Monday night. Initially high-based convection that forms
over the higher terrain should eventually spread eastward into the
adjacent High Plains. As this convection encounters greater low-level
moisture and instability along/south of a front, it should strengthen
and pose a threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts given
sufficient deep-layer shear for organized severe thunderstorms. A mix
of multicells and supercells appears possible. This severe threat
should persist into eastern MT and parts of the Dakotas through
Monday evening/night, with potentially more isolated coverage with
eastward extent into the Dakotas.
..Gleason.. 07/03/2022
Read more
Sun, 03 Jul 2022 06:04:05 +0000
SPC Jul 3, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230
AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur
Tuesday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
and portions of the northern/central Plains.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a prominent
upper ridge over the Plains, a convectively enhanced, low-amplitude
shortwave trough should advance eastward from the Great Lakes across
parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Modestly enhanced
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized updrafts should overspread these
regions through the day. Current expectations are that diurnal
heating of a moist low-level airmass will act to destabilize the
environment ahead of one or more clusters of thunderstorms that
should be ongoing Tuesday morning across some portion of the
Midwest/Great Lakes. Convection should increase in coverage and
intensity Tuesday afternoon as it spreads eastward across parts
of the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging winds will be
a concern with any clusters that can develop, but isolated large
hail may also occur with any discrete thunderstorms. The eastern
extent of the severe risk remains somewhat uncertain, as low-level
moisture may be somewhat more limited towards the Atlantic Coast.
...Northern/Central Plains... A large-scale upper ridge will
remain over much of the Plains on Tuesday. To the north of a
surface boundary, yet another day of low-level upslope flow should
occur across the northern High Plains. High-based convection that
initially forms over the higher terrain is expected to spread into
the northern/central High Plains through Tuesday evening. Diurnal
heating of the rich low-level moisture and the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates should support moderate to locally strong
instability by late Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear should also
be strong enough to foster a mix of multicells and supercells. Both
large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur as convection
spreads eastward through Tuesday evening. In addition, most guidance
suggests a stalled front will be in place across NE into southern
SD and vicinity, with strong instability to its south. Even though
this region will be on the southern extent of appreciable mid-level
flow, there may still be modestly organized clusters of thunderstorms
with some severe threat that develop near and south of the front.
..Gleason.. 07/03/2022
Read more
Sun, 03 Jul 2022 07:33:18 +0000
SPC Jul 3, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that
a prominent upper ridge will remain over much of the central CONUS
through at least late this week. Appreciable severe potential
should be tied to low-amplitude shortwave troughs that will
advance around the periphery of the upper ridge from the northern
Rockies/Plains into the Midwest, OH Valley, and occasionally the
Mid-Atlantic. One such perturbation, which appears in guidance
to be convectively augmented, may move from the Dakotas across
parts of the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Wednesday. A moist and rather
unstable airmass should be present along/south of a front across
these regions Wednesday afternoon. Depending on the presence of
morning convection and the evolution of the subtle shortwave trough,
an MCS capable of producing severe/damaging winds may evolve from
parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest through Wednesday
evening. There is not enough confidence in the placement and track
of this potential MCS to include a 15% severe area at this time,
but this will be reevaluated in later outlooks.
Thereafter, the overall predictability in organized severe
thunderstorms appears low. Some severe potential will probably
exist each day through at least Day 6/Friday across portions the
northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, as convection forms
over the higher terrain and spreads eastward into a more unstable
airmass. As multiple weak mid-level perturbations round the crest
of the upper ridge, additional MCS/bowing clusters capable of
producing damaging winds may also occur from the Upper Midwest
into the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic vicinity through the end of the
week. But, confidence remains low in the placement and evolution
of these features at this extended time frame. By next weekend,
a stronger mid-level shortwave trough may impinge on the upper
ridge as it moves across the northern Rockies/Plains into central
Canada. Trends will be monitored for an increased severe potential
across this region around Day 7/Saturday into Day 8/Sunday.
Read more
Sun, 03 Jul 2022 09:03:11 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN...
...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift eastward into the Plains
states as a mid-level trough advances toward the Intermountain
West today. Surface lee troughing will materialize across the Great
Basin, with Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions developing
along the Nevada/Utah during the afternoon hours. Scattered
thunderstorms will also develop across the northern Rockies into
the Pacific Northwest by afternoon peak heating. While some of these
storms may be high-based and potentially dry, overall wetter storms
will become more abundant and traverse fuel beds that are marginally
receptive to fire spread, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights.
..Squitieri.. 07/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 03 Jul 2022 06:45:30 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN...
...Synopsis... The mid-level trough positioned across the Interior
West on Day 1/today will translate northward toward the Canadian
border tomorrow/Monday as upper ridging strengthens across the
central U.S. While upper support across the West will subside
through the day, surface lee troughing is still expected to take
shape across the eastern Great Basin. As such, Elevated to Critical
dry and windy conditions will develop along the Nevada/Utah border
during the afternoon, where fuels remain highly receptive to
wildfire spread.
..Squitieri.. 07/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 03 Jul 2022 06:47:28 +0000
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