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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.07.22 15:08z 357 Lines 18232 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8333_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-JUN22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 220630/1145Z 8333@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 30 Jun 2022
08:51:02 +0000 Thu, 30 Jun 2022 08:51:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 30 08:51:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 30 08:51:02 UTC 2022.
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 08:50:07 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Jun 30 08:51:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun
30 08:51:02 UTC 2022. Thu, 30 Jun 2022 08:50:06 +0000
SPC Jun 30, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235
AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts
and isolated large hail will be possible today from parts of northern
Iowa northeastward into western upper Michigan. Additional storms
associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail may occur in
parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.
...Upper Mississippi and Mid Missouri Valleys/Northern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Plains
today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into
the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will likely result
in a narrow corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. As
surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases
along and ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorm development
is expected. The greatest coverage of storms should occur from
northern Wisconsin into upper Michigan, where large-scale ascent will
be plentiful. In this area, MLCAPE is forecast could reach the 2000
to 3000 J/kg range ahead of the front. In addition, a 50 to 65 knot
mid-level speed max is forecast to create strong deep-layer shear,
which should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail.
However, this should be a mixed mode event, with multicell line
segments possible as well. Veered winds in the boundary layer,
from the southwest ahead of the front, will probably result in
outflow-dominated storms capable of wind damage. The threat should
be concentrated in a relatively narrow corridor, becoming maximized
in the late afternoon and early evening.
Further southwest into the mid Missouri Valley, large-scale
ascent is forecast to be considerably weaker. In spite of this,
isolated thunderstorms should develop along and ahead of the front
during the late afternoon as low-level convergence increases and as
surface temperatures peak. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear should be enough for a wind-damage and hail threat
in areas that destabilize the most.
...Central Plains... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place today
across the central Plains, as an upper-level ridge moves across the
central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward across Nebraska, as a surface low develops in
western Kansas. Surface dewpoints, ahead of the front and to the
east of the surface low, are expected to be mostly in the 50s and
lower 60s F. Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads could exceed
40 degrees F at some locations by late afternoon, which would aid
downdraft accelerations with thunderstorms that form near and ahead
of the front. This will likely result in an isolated wind-damage
threat near and after peak heating. At this time, the threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated due to limited large-scale
ascent and weak deep-layer shear that is forecast.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/30/2022
Read more
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 05:39:23 +0000
SPC Jun 30, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158
PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE...NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN OHIO....EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact
parts of the northern and central Great Plains and a corridor to
the east-southeast of the lower Great Lakes region late Friday
afternoon and evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis... On the large scale, models continue to indicate that
a prominent blocking regime with amplified split flow will persist
across the eastern Pacific into western North America through this
period and beyond. Downstream, broad mid-level troughing will be
maintained across much of Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. to
the east of the Rockies, with a deep embedded low of Arctic origins
forecast to slowly turn eastward across the southern Hudson/James
Bay vicinity. Lower/mid-tropospheric ridging extending from the
southwestern Atlantic through the southern Rockies likely will
also be maintained, with mid-level ridging within the westerlies
persisting across the northern Rockies, downstream of the deepening
troughing offshore through inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.
An occluding surface cyclone, initially centered over southern
Hudson Bay by early Friday, may tend to develop to a position
closer to the mid-level low, while a secondary frontal wave forms
across northern Quebec into the Newfoundland and Labrador by late
Friday night. While gradually stalling and weakening across parts
of the Ohio Valley into middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains,
the trailing cold front may not advance southeast of the lower
Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley until Friday night.
Destabilization in a corridor along and south of the surface front
will provide one possible focus scattered thunderstorm development
Friday through Friday night. However, due to a general lack of
both steeper mid-level lapse rates and more substantive low-level
moistening, most of the various model ensemble output suggest that
mixed-layer CAPE across most areas may only become seasonably modest,
with the larger CAPE focused mostly south of the stronger westerlies.
Furthermore, it appears that the pre-frontal southwesterly low-level
flow will weaken from Thursday into Friday, with the stronger
deep-layer mean wind fields generally confined to areas north of the
international border. However, spread within and among the model
output remains sizable, and there are probably at least a few areas
with at least low probabilities for severe thunderstorm development.
...Lower Great Lakes into parts of the Allegheny Plateau... While
the cold front remains to the north of the region through the day,
at least some model output (perhaps most notably the NAM/NCEP SREF)
suggests that a pre-frontal return of lower/mid 60s+ F surface dew
points may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg
by late afternoon or early evening. It appears that this may occur
as a perturbation within the cyclonic mid-level flow passes to the
north of the lower Great Lakes vicinity, and perhaps contributes
to strengthening westerly winds (on the order of 30-40 kt in the
700-500 mb layer) across the destabilizing environment. This may
become sufficient to contribute to the initiation of organizing
thunderstorm development by early Friday evening, if not earlier,
some of which might become capable of producing marginally severe
wind and hail.
...Central Great Plains... Models suggest that a corridor of
stronger differential surface heating and boundary-layer moistening
may become the focus for a localized area of moderate to large
CAPE (1500-3000 J/kg) by late Friday afternoon. Particularly where
low-level convergence and warm advection become enhanced near a weak
low, in the vicinity of the intersection of the stalling surface
front and the lee surface troughing (somewhere across central to
east central Kansas), mid-level inhibition may erode sufficiently
to allow for the initiation of thunderstorms. Wind fields may be
generally weak, but perhaps with sufficient shear to allow for
isolated supercell development, and possibly the evolution of a
small cluster of storms which could pose a risk for severe wind,
in addition to hail, into Friday evening.
...Northeastern Wyoming into areas near/south of Black Hills...
Low-level moistening may only allow for the development of modest
CAPE by late Friday afternoon. But lower/mid tropospheric lapse
rates likely will become steep, and forcing for ascent near and east
of a lee surface low, aided by low/mid-level warm advection, might
be sufficient to support thunderstorm initiation and an upscale
growing cluster of storms by Friday evening. It appears there
will be sufficient deep-layer shear (aided by pronounced veering
of winds with height) to contribute to organization which may be
accompanied by potential to produce severe winds, in addition to
hail, before weakening Friday night.
..Kerr.. 06/30/2022
Read more
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 05:41:13 +0000
SPC Jun 30, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228
AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN
NEW YORK AND MUCH OF LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND
MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop and
overspread much of the Northeast urban corridor Saturday afternoon,
accompanied by a risk for damaging winds and hail. A cluster of
strong thunderstorms might also develop across parts of the northern
Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening, and pose at least
some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis... Little appreciable change to the large-scale flow
is forecast through this period. Blocking with amplified split
flow appears likely to remain prominent across the eastern Pacific
into western North America. To the southeast of the persistent
mid/upper high over the Canadian Yukon and Northwest Territories,
broad troughing will remain entrenched across much of Canada and
the adjacent northern tier of the U.S. to the east of the Rockies.
However, the deep embedded mid-level low of Canadian Arctic origins
is forecast to slowly progress east of the southern Hudson/James
Bay vicinity, while several less prominent trailing perturbations
dig across the Canadian Prairies and south of the central Canadian
Arctic latitudes. Farther south, lower/mid tropospheric ridging
extending from the southwestern Atlantic through the southern
Rockies likely will be maintained.
...Northeast... Associated with the deep mid-level low shifting into
Quebec, a cold front probably will already be advancing southward
across northern New England and to the east of the lower Great Lakes
by 12Z Saturday, before slowly continuing into southern New England
and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by the end of the period.
In advance of the front, it appears that a pre-frontal surface
trough will become a focus for stronger boundary-layer heating
and mixing across and just inland of much of the Northeast urban
corridor, where surface dew points in the mid 60s to near 70F
may contribute to moderate mixed-layer CAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg.
Thunderstorm activity likely to develop along or ahead of the cold
front probably will intensify as it advances east-southeastward and
encounters increasing inflow of this air mass. It appears this
may occur coincident with 30-50 kt flow in the 700-500 mb layer,
on the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, with associated
shear providing support for convective organization and potential
for damaging wind gusts and hail.
...Northern Great Plains... A short wave impulse rounding the
crest of the mid-level ridging across the northern Rockies,
in advance of a stronger impulse digging within the cyclonic
flow across the Canadian Prairies, may contribute to forcing for
convective development across eastern Montana into the Dakotas by
Saturday evening. Spread among the various model output remains
sizable, but boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates may contribute to CAPE on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg within the lee surface troughing across the northern
Great Plains. Although it currently may be an outlier, the 30/00Z
NAM indicates a rather substantive convective signal, suggestive
of potential for the evolution of a rather strong, organized and
progressive convective system capable of producing strong wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 06/30/2022
Read more
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 07:30:17 +0000
SPC Jun 30, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates little change to
the amplified split flow across the eastern Pacific into western
North America through early next week. Thereafter, into the
middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that the blocking
high over the Canadian Yukon and Northwest Territories may begin
to weaken. As it does, the persistent mid-level troughing near
and offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast may lose amplitude, with
the most prominent embedded perturbation (likely the remnants of a
mid-level low) forecast to accelerate northeastward just offshore of
the Pacific Northwest coast by early Friday. This probably will be
accompanied by substantive amplification of downstream mid-level
ridging across and just east of the northern U.S. and Canadian
Rockies, while mid-level subtropical ridging also becomes more
prominent across the Colorado Plateau and southern Rockies vicinity.
Prior to the pattern changes, it still appears that an increase
of boundary-layer moisture through much of the Missouri Valley,
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with warm elevated
mixed-layer air emanating from the Rockies, may once again contribute
to a broad area of moderate to strong potential instability. And at
least one significant perturbation emanating from the Pacific coast
troughing, before migrating around the northern periphery of the
downstream ridging, may contribute to a corridor of increasing
severe weather potential across the northern Intermountain region
and northern Rockies, through areas near/northeast of the middle
into lower Missouri Valley. This is where shear on the southern
fringe of the westerlies, coupled with the increasing instability,
will promote a conditional risk for the evolution of longer-lived
organized convective systems with the potential to produce strong
surface gusts. However, the predictability of these sub-synoptic
features is low at this extended range.
Read more
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 08:50:09 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Mainly zonal mid-level flow is expected across
the northern CONUS as upper ridging prevails across the central
and southern U.S. today. While mostly quiescent fire weather
conditions are expected across much of the CONUS, localized
fire-spread concerns exist across the Interior West. First,
Elevated dry and windy conditions may occur in terrain-favoring
areas of the Great Basin, especially in southern Nevada during the
afternoon. Mid-level monsoonal moisture will continue to meander
over the Great Basin into the central Rockies as in past several
days, promoting isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm
development by afternoon peak heating. While storms should mostly
be wet, a couple of dry strikes are possible, and it is not out
of the question to get a lightning-induced ignition in any patchy
areas of modestly to critically dry fuels.
..Squitieri.. 06/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 06:42:29 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper ridging will remain in place across the central
Rockies into the Plains states while a subtle mid-level trough
becomes established on the West Coast tomorrow/Friday. As in Day 1,
locally dry and breezy conditions may develop across parts of the
Great Basin during the afternoon, promoting a limited wildfire-spread
threat. Mid-level moisture will also coincide with the upper ridge,
supporting scattered high-based thunderstorm development across
the central/northern Rockies, with more isolated thunderstorm
development possible westward into Oregon. While a couple of
dry strikes are possible, fuels are expected to be marginally to
modestly receptive at best, and on a spotty basis, rendering the
overall lightning-induced ignition threat relatively low.
..Squitieri.. 06/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 06:44:28 +0000
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