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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.07.22 15:08z 366 Lines 18392 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8262_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-JUN22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE6NAS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220628/1730Z 8262@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 28 Jun 2022
08:59:01 +0000 Tue, 28 Jun 2022 08:59:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 28 08:59:01 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 28 08:59:01 UTC 2022.
Tue, 28 Jun 2022 08:58:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jun 28 08:59:01 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun
28 08:59:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 28 Jun 2022 08:58:05 +0000
SPC Jun 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229
AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MONTANA...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
over a portion of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.
Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts may accompany thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Rockies
and adjacent plains.
...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough initially
over southern Saskatchewan early this morning will quickly move
southeast and reach northern WI by early evening. An attendant cold
front will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest during the
period and focus thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening.
Model guidance indicates a marginally moist boundary layer (upper
50s to near 60 deg F surface dewpoints) will destabilize during
the day beneath seasonably cool mid-level temperatures (-14 to -16
deg C at 500 mb). Model guidance is in fairly good agreement in
indicating storms developing by the mid afternoon over northwest WI
and perhaps extending westward into eastern MN. A mix of supercells
and organized multicells early in the convective cycle (due to
adequate CAPE/shear) will probably evolve into a band of storms as
it pushes southeastward during the evening across WI. Large hail
and damaging gusts are the primary severe hazards. The severe risk
will likely wane by mid-late evening as buoyancy lessens.
...Northern Rockies into adjacent plains... A mid-level low
initially off the WA/Vancouver coast will move east as a ridge shifts
eastward from the northern High Plains to the MT/Dakotas border by
daybreak Wednesday. In response to an approaching 500-mb speed max,
weak low pressure will develop in lee of the Rockies during the day.
Increasing large-scale ascent and orographic lift will likely lead to
thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of ID/southwest MT
by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles with
strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow. High-based storms will
likely move into the plains with outflow-dominant storms capable of
severe gusts. This activity will likely spread east into central
MT during the evening before the risk for gusts becomes more limited
by late evening.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/28/2022
Read more
Tue, 28 Jun 2022 05:33:26 +0000
SPC Jun 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR VICINITY...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across
the northern Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, posing at least some risk
for severe wind and hail.
...Synopsis... It appears that blocking may begin to become
more prominent once again within the large-scale flow across the
northeastern Pacific and adjacent northwestern North America, with
a mid-level high slowly beginning to form and strengthen over the
Alaska/Yukon vicinity during this period. Downstream of this regime,
a deep mid-level low emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes
is forecast to continue slowly digging to the west of Hudson Bay.
As this occurs, the increasingly deformed remnants of another low,
emerging from persistent mid-level troughing offshore of the U.S.
Pacific coast, appear likely to accelerate inland within a confluent
regime along the Canadian/U.S. border, between the more prominent
digging low and flattening mid-level ridging across the northern
U.S. Great Plains.
Within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies, models indicate that this will be accompanied
by at least weak cyclogenesis across the southern Canadian Prairies
into northwestern Ontario Wednesday through Wednesday night, along
with strengthening southwesterly to westerly lower/mid tropospheric
wind fields across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest and
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Coincidentally, a plume of very warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air is forecast to nose northeast
of the Rockies, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
In lower latitudes, lower/mid tropospheric ridging likely will
prevail across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S.
While a return flow of monsoonal moisture across and north-northeast
of the Four Corners region into the northern Great Plains may
develop, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content still
appears likely to remain mostly confined to the Southeast and
western Gulf Coast states.
...Northern Great Plains into upper Great Lakes vicinity...
Within the deepening surface troughing, boundary-layer moistening
is still expected to be largely confined to that associated
with gradual continued evapotranspiration and northward return
of evapotranspiration driven moistening from the Corn Belt.
Despite steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, this may
only becoming supportive of weak to modest mixed-layer CAPE in
most areas. However, guidance has been indicating that at least
somewhat higher dew points will develop and be maintained beneath
the strengthening mid-level inhibition, along a developing surface
warm front shifting northeast of the middle Missouri Valley by
early Wednesday. This will probably contribute to at least
a narrow corridor of more substantive potential instability,
with largest CAPE probably become focused near the intersection
of the warm front and the lee surface trough. By late afternoon,
it appears that this may be roughly located near or north of the
eastern North and South Dakota state border. The possible magnitude
of the CAPE is more uncertain, but at least a localized area of 2000+
J/kg seems increasingly probable.
Mid/upper forcing to support thunderstorm initiation is also unclear.
At some point during the late afternoon or early evening, it is
possible that weakening inhibition due to daytime heating or lift
aided by low-level warm advection could support isolated thunderstorm
development. If this occurs, the environment will be conducive
to supercells capable of producing large hail, locally strong wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, and a strengthening low-level
jet (up to 50+ kt around 850 mb) could support the evolution
of a small northeastward propagating organized convective system
Wednesday evening. Due to the large continuing spread in the model
output, severe probabilities are being maintained at "Marginal"
risk levels. However, it is possible this could be increased in
later outlooks, if/when guidance comes into better agreement on
sub-synoptic developments.
Otherwise, there has been a signal that a cluster of thunderstorms
may spread east of the higher terrain of Wyoming (perhaps in
association with the monsoonal regime) by late afternoon. As this
activity progresses into/across the strongly heated and deeply
mixed boundary-layer over parts of western Nebraska into western
South Dakota, it may pose a risk to produce a few strong wind gusts
into Wednesday evening.
..Kerr.. 06/28/2022
Read more
Tue, 28 Jun 2022 05:35:17 +0000
SPC Jun 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213
AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN
AND NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from
the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great
Lakes region Thursday, posing at least some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis... Blocking may continue to become more prominent, with
an increasingly amplified split flow developing across the eastern
Pacific into western North America during this period. Downstream,
a deep mid-level low emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes
is forecast to continue to slowly dig near the southwestern shores
of Hudson Bay. As it does, mid-level heights may become suppressed
to its south, across parts of the northern Great Plains through
the Great Lakes region. Otherwise, there appears likely to be
little change to the persistent mid/upper ridging across much of
the central and southern tier of the United Sates.
In lower-levels, a developing surface low, emerging from the southern
Canadian Prairies on Wednesday, may progress across northern Ontario,
before perhaps deepening more substantively and occluding across the
southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity by late Thursday night. A trailing
cold front appears likely to advance south of the international
border through much of the upper Great Lakes region and northern
Great Plains. Along and east of pre-frontal surface troughing,
and around the western periphery of low-level ridging centered over
the southwestern Atlantic, a seasonably moderate to strong low-level
jet (30-40+ kt around 850 mb) may persist through much of the period
across parts of the southern and central Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region. Although a gradual moistening,
aided by the northeastward advection of monsoonal moisture, may
continue along much of this corridor, seasonably high boundary-layer
moisture content might remain confined to much of the Southeast,
lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Texas.
...Central Great Plains into upper Great Lakes... Although the
strongest deep-layer mean wind fields may begin to shift across
and northeast of the Great Lakes region, 30-50 kt flow in the
850-500 mb layer may persist across the Upper Midwest into Great
Lakes region through much of the day. Farther south, the stronger
flow (on the order of 30 kt around 850 mb) will be confined to the
lower levels, east of the pre-frontal surface troughing into the
central/southern Great Plains. Given sufficient destabilization,
this regime will at least conditionally support organized severe
thunderstorm development.
Despite some continued moistening of the pre-frontal boundary
layer, guidance suggests that modification of mid-level lapse rates,
associated with the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air,
may only allow for the development of seasonably modest mixed-layer
CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Within the stronger deep-layer
mean flow, near and east-northeast of the upper Great Lakes, this
may be slowed or inhibited by early day cloud cover.
Still, this environment may support at least widely scattered strong
to severe thunderstorm development by late Thursday afternoon
and evening. This may include isolated supercells, and a couple
of evolving clusters of storms, which could pose a risk for mostly
severe wind and some hail.
..Kerr.. 06/28/2022
Read more
Tue, 28 Jun 2022 07:16:23 +0000
SPC Jun 28, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that blocking with
an amplified split flow will remain prominent across the eastern
Pacific into western North America through next weekend and at
least early next week. While a mid-level high remains centered
over the Canadian Yukon and adjacent Northwest Territories vicinity,
large-scale mid-level troughing is likely to maintained to its south,
offshore through inland of much of the U.S. Pacific coast.
Downstream, after an initially deep embedded mid-level low finally
progresses offshore of the Newfoundland and Labrador coast and
weakens by early next week, broad mid-level troughing is forecast
to be maintained across much of eastern Canada and the Northeast.
At the same time mid-level ridging will also be maintained from
the southwestern Atlantic through the southern Great Plains.
And mid-level ridging within the westerlies to its north is forecast
to expand between the larger scale troughs, from the northern
Rockies eastward along the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity into the
upper Great Lakes region.
A cold front accompanying the deep mid-level low as it migrates
across and east of the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity appears
likely to progress south of the international border, into the
Northeast by early Saturday. Ahead of the front, it does appear
increasingly probable that at least a narrow corridor of more
substantive low-level moistening, across the northern Mid Atlantic
into southern New England, will contribute to destabilization near
the southern fringe of stronger westerlies (including 30-40+ kt in
the 700-500 mb layer). While it currently appears that CAPE might
be limited by weak mid-level lapse rates, low-level lapse rates may
become fairly steep. If CAPE were a little larger or low-level
wind fields a little stronger, the risk for organized severe
thunderstorm activity would seem a little more certain. As it is
currently forecast, the environment probably will become at least
marginally conducive to thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, and it is possible that this could impact the urban
corridor, at least from the Greater Boston to New York City areas,
perhaps into the Philadelphia and Baltimore/Washington D.C. areas.
Late next weekend through early next week (including the July
4th holiday), it is possible that one or two perturbations could
emerge from the Pacific coast mid-level troughing, and contribute
to potential for the evolution of organizing convective clusters
across the northern Intermountain region through northern Rockies.
Eventually, this activity may work its way around the northern
periphery of the mid-level ridging near the central Canadian/U.S.
border area. However, the predictability of these features at this
extended range remains low.
Read more
Tue, 28 Jun 2022 08:58:03 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build into the Plains states
from the west as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northwest
today. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a deep, dry boundary
layer to the lee of the northern Sierra, promoting Elevated dry
and windy conditions across the northern Great Basin during the
afternoon. By afternoon peak heating, isolated to potentially
scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across
eastern parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners given ample
monsoonal moisture present. While the storms will be slow moving
and producing rainfall over areas that have received accumulations
from preceding storms, guidance still indicates that fuel beds
are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, with isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights maintained.
..Squitieri.. 06/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 28 Jun 2022 06:35:34 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Northern
Rockies and Northern Plains regions as upper ridging persists across
the southern and central U.S. tomorrow/Wednesday. Strong flow behind
the mid-level trough will overspread the northern Great Basin, where
downslope flow along the lee of the Sierra will promote Elevated
winds/RH during the afternoon. Farther east, the combination of
surface lee troughing and the passage of a cold front will aid in the
development of critically dry and breezy conditions across portions
of the central Plains for several hours. Critical highlights have
been introduced since fuels are expected to be quite receptive to
fire spread following dry conditions.
Meandering mid-level moisture across the eastern Great Basin
will continue to support the development of isolated high-based
thunderstorms by afternoon peak heating. While it is unclear how
much of an impact preceding day's rainfall will have on fuel beds,
at least spotty critically dry fuels would support ignitions from
lightning, with isolated dry thunderstorm highlights introduced.
..Squitieri.. 06/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 28 Jun 2022 06:52:28 +0000
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