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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.07.22 15:08z 348 Lines 17234 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8296_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-JUN22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220629/1415Z 8296@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Wed, 29 Jun 2022
08:59:02 +0000 Wed, 29 Jun 2022 08:59:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 29 08:59:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 29 08:59:02 UTC 2022.
Wed, 29 Jun 2022 08:58:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jun 29 08:59:02 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun
29 08:59:02 UTC 2022. Wed, 29 Jun 2022 08:58:05 +0000
SPC Jun 29, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252
AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with large hail
and wind damage will be possible in parts of the northern Plains
this afternoon and evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible in parts of eastern North Dakota and
far northwest Minnesota, with wind gusts over 65 knots possible in
parts of central and eastern South Dakota.
...Northern Plains... A shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward across the northern Rockies today. Flow will become
west-southwesterly at mid-levels across the northern Plains,
in the wake of an upper-level ridge moving eastward into the
upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward into the Dakotas this afternoon, with a low
forecast to develop in central South Dakota. A narrow corridor
of maximized low-level moisture will be in place from southeast
Minnesota extending northwestward into eastern North Dakota, where
surface dewpoints should be in the mid 60s F. In response, moderate
instability is expected to develop by afternoon, with MLCAPE reaching
the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of this corridor. Although
a capping inversion is forecast across much of North Dakota this
afternoon, surface heating and large-scale ascent associated with
the approaching shortwave trough may be enough to allow a couple of
surface-based discrete storms to develop. The instability, combined
with moderate deep-layer shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, should
be enough for supercells with large hail. A potential could exist
for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter.
Further south into parts of central and eastern South Dakota,
scattered thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon. This
convection is forecast to develop along the northeastern edge of
a plume of very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, exceeding 9.0
C/km. In response, the storms should have a substantial wind-damage
potential. Although supercells are not expected, several short
multicell line segments will be possible. As the downdrafts mature
in the late afternoon, very strong wind gusts in excess of 65 knots
will be possible.
The severe threat is expected to be maximized during the late
afternoon and early evening across the eastern Dakotas. As the storms
move eastward into western Minnesota during the evening, the severe
threat should become more isolated. Warm-advection-related storms
could still pose an isolated severe threat, although the potential
should become marginalized as instability drops.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/29/2022
Read more
Wed, 29 Jun 2022 05:56:21 +0000
SPC Jun 29, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142
PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS...EASTERN
NEBRASKA...MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from
the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great
Lakes region Thursday, posing at least some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis... Latest model output is not much different from
prior guidance, and no more clear concerning the possible convective
evolution and associated risk for severe weather Thursday through
Thursday night.
On the large-scale, it still appears that blocking will continue
to become more prominent, with an increasingly amplified split
flow developing across the eastern Pacific into western North
America during this period. Downstream, a deep mid-level low of
Arctic origins is forecast to continue slowing digging near the
southwestern shores of Hudson Bay, while a remnant perturbation of
northern mid-latitude Pacific origins accelerates eastward within
confluent flow to its south, near the central Canadian/U.S. border.
This will contribute to suppression of mid-level heights with
flow trending broadly cyclonic across parts of the northern Great
Plains through the Great Lakes region. Otherwise, there appears
likely to be little significant change to lower/mid tropospheric
ridging extending from the southwestern Atlantic through much of
the southern and central tier of the United States.
In response to these developments, a surface cyclone, emerging
from the southern Canadian Prairies on Wednesday, may continue
deepening while migrating across northern Ontario into southern
Hudson Bay, before occluding across southern Hudson Bay by late
Thursday night. A trailing cold front probably will advance south
of the international border through much of the upper Great Lakes
region and northern Great Plains. Along and east of the pre-frontal
surface troughing, around the western periphery of low-level ridging
centered over the southwestern Atlantic, a seasonably moderate to
strong low-level jet may persist through much of the period across
parts of the southern and central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region. Although a gradual moistening, aided by
further evapotranspiration and advection of monsoonal moisture
northeast of the Four Corners region, may continue across much
of this corridor, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content
might remain confined to much of the Southeast, lower Mississippi
Valley and southeast Texas.
...Central Great Plains into Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Although
the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields may shift across and
northeast of the Great Lakes region early in the period, it still
appears that 30-50+ kt southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500
mb layer may persist across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes
region through much of the day. Farther south, east of the surface
troughing into the Great Plains, the stronger flow (up to around 30
kt at 850 mb) will be confined to lower levels, but this will still
provide conditional support for organized severe thunderstorms,
given sufficient destabilizaton and forcing for ascent to initiate
deep convection.
Despite the continued moistening south of the front and east of
the pre-frontal surface trough, model output continues to suggest
that modification of mid-level lapse rates, associated with the
remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, may only allow for
seasonably modest mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.
Within the stronger deep-layer mean flow, near and east-northeast
of the upper Great Lakes, this may be slowed or inhibited by the
remnants of weakening early period convection.
Still, there probably will be sufficient weakening of mid-level
inhibition to allow for at least widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development by late Thursday afternoon. With the environment at
least conditionally supportive of isolated supercells and a couple
of small organizing clusters, some of these may pose primarily a risk
for severe wind and some hail, before diminishing Thursday evening.
..Kerr.. 06/29/2022
Read more
Wed, 29 Jun 2022 05:58:22 +0000
SPC Jun 29, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220
AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears
negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night.
...Synopsis... A prominent blocking regime with amplified split
flow will persist across the eastern Pacific into western North
America through this period and beyond. Downstream, broad mid-level
troughing will be maintained across much of Canada and the northern
tier of the U.S., to the east of the Rockies, with a deep embedded
low of Arctic origins forecast to slowly turn eastward across the
southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity. Lower/mid-tropospheric ridging
extending from the southwestern Atlantic through the southern Rockies
likely will also be maintained, while mid-level ridging builds
further across the northern Rockies, downstream of the deepening
troughing offshore through inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.
An occluding surface cyclone initially forecast over southern
Hudson Bay by early Friday may tend to develop to a position closer
to the mid-level low, while a secondary frontal wave forms across
northern Quebec into the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity by late
Friday night. While gradually stalling and weakening across parts
of the Ohio Valley into middle Mississippi Valley and central Great
Plains, the trailing cold front may not advance southeast of the
lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley until Friday night.
...Central Great Plains into the Northeast... Destabilization near
and south of the surface front will provide one possible focus for
scattered thunderstorm development Friday through Friday night.
However, due to a lack of both steeper mid-level lapse rates and
more substantive low-level moistening, most of the various model
ensemble output suggest that mixed-layer CAPE may only become
seasonably modest, with the larger CAPE mostly focused to the
south of the stronger westerlies. Furthermore, it appears that
the pre-frontal southwesterly low-level flow will weaken Thursday
into Friday, with stronger deep-layer mean wind fields on Friday
generally confined to areas north of the international border.
There remains a signal within the various model output that the
environment may become marginally conducive to organized convection,
including supercells, in a narrow corridor north of the international
border (across parts of southeastern Ontario into the St. Lawrence
Valley) by late Friday afternoon. However, given the rather weak
forecast boundary-layer instability across this region, it seems
probable that this activity will tend to weak as it spreads into
a less unstable air mass near and southeast of the international
border Friday evening.
It might not be out of the question that at least low severe weather
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of New York
and New England, near the international border, as well as perhaps
areas west-southwestward ahead of the front into the Great Plains,
as model spread begins to decrease. At this time, though, it appears
that any severe weather will be rather isolated/sparse in coverage
Friday through Friday night.
..Kerr.. 06/29/2022
Read more
Wed, 29 Jun 2022 07:23:15 +0000
SPC Jun 29, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an amplified
split flow evolving late this week may persist across the eastern
Pacific into western North America into at least the middle of
next week. While a mid-level high appears likely to be maintained
across the Canadian Yukon and Northwest Territories vicinity, the
large-scale mid-level troughing initially near and inland of the
U.S. Pacific coast this weekend may reform a bit farther offshore
by the middle of next week. As this occurs, and the deep eastern
Canadian mid-level low of Arctic origins finally progresses offshore
of Newfoundland and Labrador and weakens, mid-level ridging may
become more prominent in the southern branch of the westerlies,
across the northern Rockies and the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity
into the Upper Midwest.
Coinciding with these developments, a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air will begin to advect east of the northern Rockies.
Coupled with the return of a seasonably moist boundary layer,
it appears that moderate to large potential instability will
develop once again across much of the Missouri Valley and central
Canadian/U.S. border into Upper Midwest during the early to middle
portion of next week.
Short wave perturbations emerging from the Pacific coast mid-level
troughing, before progressing around the northern periphery of the
downstream ridging, might contribute to increasing potential for
organized thunderstorm development from parts of the northern
Intermountain region across and to the lee of the northern
Rockies as early as Sunday. There has been some signal that
at least one vigorous perturbation may emerge (coincident with
the increasing instability) which could contribute to one or
two organized convective systems with substantive severe weather
potential, sometime during the early to middle of next week in the
corridor east of the northern Rockies toward the Upper Midwest.
Predictability at this point, however, is low.
Read more
Wed, 29 Jun 2022 08:59:05 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the northern
Plains today as an upper ridge persists across the central and
southern U.S. Surface lee troughing across the Plains states will
encourage Elevated to Critical dry/windy conditions this afternoon
across parts of western into central Nebraska and immediate
surrounding areas. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms
may also develop, with abundant rainfall evaporation potentially
supporting strong to severe wind gusts, which may exacerbate
wildfire-spread potential. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have
been withheld this outlook since it is unclear how much rainfall
may accompany storms. Please see the Day 1 Convective Outlook for
more details on the severe threat.
Strong flow aloft may also linger across the northern and central
Great Basin, where a dry boundary layer may encourage downslope
flow and associated Elevated dry and windy conditions to the lee of
the Sierra. Monsoonal moisture meandering around the eastern Great
Basin will support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms
by afternoon peak heating. The potential exists for isolated dry
strikes in receptive fuel beds, warranting the continuation of
isolated dry thunderstorm highlights.
..Squitieri.. 06/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 29 Jun 2022 06:47:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis... Slight upper ridging will prevail across the Interior
West as mainly zonal flow becomes established across the northern
half of the CONUS tomorrow/Thursday. Mildly dry and windy conditions
will develop ahead of the surface cold front across the southern
High Plains tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile, locally Elevated surface
winds and RH may occur in terrain-favoring areas of the Great Basin
by afternoon peak heating. No Elevated or Critical highlights have
been added this outlook, since fire weather conditions are expected
to be favorable only on a spotty basis across the western Plains
into the Interior West. As in previous days, lingering monsoonal
moisture will support high-based thunderstorm development atop
patchy critical fuels over the eastern Great Basin, where isolated
dry thunderstorm highlights have once again been introduced.
..Squitieri.. 06/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 29 Jun 2022 06:48:16 +0000
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