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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.04.19 07:03z 148 Lines 7885 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22356_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 22 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190422/0700Z 22356@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141
PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
NM ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OK...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of mainly hail
and damaging winds are possible from southeast New Mexico across the
South Plains and into parts of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma
from late afternoon Monday through evening. Isolated strong to
severe storms are also possible across parts of southern Wisconsin,
eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois. A weak, brief tornado cannot
be ruled out in either area.
...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south from AZ into northwest
Mexico with a leading shortwave disturbance moving out of northern
Mexico across west TX. At the surface, a stalling front will stretch
roughly from southeast NM into central OK by 00Z, with winds veering
to easterly across the High Plains. Mid to upper level southwesterly
winds will increase to an average of 40-70 kt respectively, enhancing
the potential for scattered severe storms.
To the north, a shortwave trough will move into the upper MS Valley
during the afternoon, with a surface low moving from IA into MI.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of this low, enhancing low-level
shear, with the low track becoming a favorable corridor for isolated
severe storms.
...Southeast NM...South Plains...Southwest OK... Scattered storms
are expected to form around 21Z from central and southeast NM into
parts of west TX, where heating is strongest south of the front. Hail
is possible with the NM cells, as well as into the South Plains. A
brief tornado cannot be ruled out near peak heating, near the
boundary, and before cells grow upscale into a possible MCS. The
greatest potential for damaging winds will likely be along the
boundary, extending into northwest TX, as storms move along it,
aided by strong east/northeast surface winds just north of the
boundary. A few storms may remain strong to severe into far southwest
OK, before the air mass overturns with more widespread precipitation.
...Eastern IA...northern IL...southern WI... Upstream heating
of a 50s dewpoint air mass and increasing southerly winds ahead
of the surface low will result in an axis of around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE by afternoon across IA/IL/WI. Forecast soundings show some
capping around 700 mb, but lift near the low track is expected to
support thunderstorm development, which will be centered over the
tri-state area. While winds in the mid and upper levels will not
be particularly strong (short hodographs), low-level veering of
the winds with height may support rotating storms with marginal
hail, wind, or a brief tornado (especially over WI where LCLs will
be lower).
..Jewell/Karstens.. 04/22/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240
AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated large
hail and wind damage threat are expected to develop across parts
of Texas on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move slowly
southeastward across northern Mexico on Tuesday as west to southwest
mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will move southeastward across west-central and
north-central Texas. The airmass will moisten south of the front
with surface dewpoints reaching the mid to upper 60s F. In response,
a pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop along and
just south of the front from Del Rio extending east-northeastward
into the Texas Hill Country. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate
and organize along the front during the late afternoon where the
models are showing steep low to mid-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear. For this reason, a severe threat is expected to
develop across southwest and central Texas from the late afternoon
into the evening. Supercells with large hail and wind damage will
be possible. Organized multicells with damaging wind gusts and
hail appear likely in areas where mesoscale conditions become
most favorable.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Broyles.. 04/22/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level low located over the Desert
Southwest will shift southeastward slowly, reaching portions
of southern Arizona/northern Mexico by the end of the forecast
period. Consequently, most of the modestly enhanced flow along the
base of the trough/low will reside outside of the CONUS, except for
portions of the southern High Plains where mid-level flow of 30-35
kt will enter by mid-afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will
sag south through the central High Plains and stall across portions
of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeastern New Mexico. Meanwhile,
a remnant dryline will extend south into portions of south-central
New Mexico.
...Southern New Mexico... West of the dryline, afternoon
temperatures will approach the upper 70s to lower 80s F with
resulting RH values falling into the lower teens. Vertical mixing
will allow winds near to the surface to be sustained near 10-15 mph,
gusting to 20 mph, during the afternoon. Thus, elevated fire-weather
conditions are expected where fuels remain marginally receptive. The
previous forecast has been refined slightly to account for higher
RH values that are now forecast into portions of far southwestern
New Mexico, and slight adjustments were made elsewhere based on
the last high-resolution HRRR/RAP model guidance.
..Karstens.. 04/22/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper-level low located over the Desert
Southwest/northern Mexico will shift eastward, entering portions
of the Big Bend and West Texas by the end of the forecast
period. Farther north, a predominantly zonal flow pattern will
exist across the northern tier of the CONUS. At the surface, high
pressure will settle into the Great Basin and much of the central
U.S., with a stationary front lining up from the Southern Plains
into the Ohio Valley. Light offshore flow can be expected Tuesday
morning across portions of southern California. In general though,
fire-weather concerns remain low, precluding the introduction of
any highlights at this time.
..Karstens.. 04/22/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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