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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.07.22 12:05z 429 Lines 19143 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-JUL22
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Sent: 220709/1145Z 859@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 09 Jul 2022
09:02:02 +0000 Sat, 09 Jul 2022 09:02:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450 WW 450 SEVERE TSTM ND
090725Z - 091300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 450 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 AM CDT Sat
Jul 9 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West-central and Northern North Dakota
* Effective this Saturday morning from 225 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large
hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized cluster of storms near the Montana/North
Dakota border early in the overnight (215 AM CDT/115 AM MDT) will
continue eastward toward west-central/north-central North Dakota
with the possibility of isolated wind damage and some hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest
of Minot ND to 60 miles south southwest of Garrison ND. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 449...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 26045.
...Guyer
Read more
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 08:46:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450 Status Reports WW 0450
Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..07/09/22
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC009-013-025-049-055-057-061-065-075-089-101-090940-
ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOTTINEAU BURKE DUNN MCHENRY
MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER
RENVILLE STARK WARD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 08:46:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 Status Reports WW 0449
Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MLS TO
35 NNW GDV TO 50 SE ISN.
..LEITMAN..07/09/22
ATTN...WFO...GGW...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC021-079-109-090940-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAWSON PRAIRIE WIBAUX
NDC007-033-053-090940-
ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BILLINGS GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 08:46:04 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Jul 9 09:02:11 UTC
2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul
9 09:02:11 UTC 2022. Sat, 09 Jul 2022 09:02:05 +0000
SPC Jul 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245
AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MONTANA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday
afternoon and evening mainly from Montana into North Dakota, with
damaging wind and hail threat. Marginally severe storms may also
occur from parts of Texas into much of the Southeast, with locally
damaging wind gusts.
...MT/ND...
Northern High Plains upper ridge is forecast to break down during
the latter half of the period as substantial mid-level height falls
spread across MT into ND ahead of a notable short-wave trough. The
upper feature of concern is currently located off the northern CA
Coast. Subsequent movement suggests the short wave will approach
southwest MT around 10/00z before ejecting to near the MT/ND border
by 10/12z.
Early this morning, a cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms
is progressing across northeast MT and should top the ridge and
begin to propagate more southeast into central ND by sunrise. While
this activity could generate damaging winds into the early part of
the day1 period, this activity may gradually decrease during the
later morning. Remnants of the MCS could serve as the focus for
isolated robust development as boundary layer destabilizes due to
surface heating.
Of more concern will be convection that develops over the mountains
of northern ID/southwest MT. Forecast soundings suggest initiation
may occur by 22z as convective temperatures are breached. These
storms will evolve beneath a belt of 40-50kt of 500mb flow that will
encourage upscale growth of scattered supercells into central MT.
Seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and strong shear
suggest one or more MCSs may evolve ahead of the short wave. This
activity should focus along a corridor from central MT into
west-central ND. Initial supercells may produce very large hail,
but with time severe wind threat may increase as bow-type structures
possibly evolve with a maturing MCS.
...TX to the Southeast...
Northwesterly flow will deepen across much of the southern US
east of the Rockies Saturday as primary ridge axis holds over the
Rockies. Weak short-wave trough is forecast to extend from KY-AR at
18z which will align with a surface front draped across the TN Valley
into north-central TX. This boundary, aided by weak support aloft,
should encourage at least marginally severe convective development
within a high-PW environment from the lower MS Valley into the
Southeast. Very hot temperatures across TX will result in higher
cloud bases capable of generating gusty winds.
..Darrow/Moore.. 07/09/2022
Read more
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 05:49:25 +0000
SPC Jul 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z
Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248
AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley... A shortwave
trough, along with an associated mid-level jet max will move
eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. At the
surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the northern
Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s F, will likely result in a corridor of moderate instability by
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the west
of the instability axis during the mid to late afternoon. A couple
of organized convective clusters are forecast to move eastward into
the western Great Lakes region Sunday evening.
The mid-level jet max of 50 to 65 knots will move across the
upper-level Mississippi Valley, and be associated with strong
deep-layer shear. NAM forecast soundings in north-central Minnesota
at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range,
with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This combined with 700 to 500
mb lapse rates in the 8.0 to 8.5 C/km range should be favorable
for supercells with isolated large hail. Wind damage will also
be possible. As the low-level jet strengthens during the late
afternoon and early evening, a tornado threat is also expected to
develop across parts of Minnesota. Cells that organize into line
segments will also have wind-damage potential. The threat should
become more isolated by late evening, affecting parts of Wisconsin,
northern Iowa and northeastern Nebraska.
...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A shortwave
trough is forecast to move eastward into the northern Rockies on
Sunday. Thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the trough across
parts of the northern Rockies during the afternoon. This convection
will spread eastward across parts of the northern High Plains during
the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest a
corridor of instability will be in place across southeast Montana
and northern Wyoming. Forecast soundings by 00Z/Monday along this
corridor have 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, with mid-level
lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/km. This should be sufficient for hail
with the stronger updrafts. Gusty winds will also be possible. The
threat should move eastward into parts of the western Dakotas during
the evening.
..Broyles.. 07/09/2022
Read more
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 05:52:14 +0000
SPC Jul 9, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224
AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Monday
from parts of the central and southern High Plains east-northeastward
into the southwestern Great Lakes. Hail and strong gusty winds will
be the primary threats.
...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great
Lakes... An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across
the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a 55 to 65 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, a cold front will advance south-southeastward across the
mid Missouri Valley, upper Mississippi Valley and western Great
Lakes. A narrow corridor of moderate instability should develop
south of the front by Monday afternoon, with MLCAPE forecast to
peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms that form along
or near the front are forecast to move southeastward during the
late afternoon. Although moderate deep-layer shear will be in place
near the front from the lower Missouri Valley into the southwestern
Great Lakes, model forecasts suggest that much of the convection
will remain post-frontal. If a few storms can develop to the south
of the front, where the stronger instability is located, then an
isolated severe threat would be possible. Isolated wind damage and
hail would be the primary threats.
...Southern and Central Plains... Northwest mid-level flow will
be in place on Monday across the Central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front is forecast to advance southward across Kansas and
eastern Colorado during the day. A narrow corridor of instability
just south of the front will be likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms
that form along or near the front will move southward into the
stronger instability. Although 0-6 km shear is only forecast in the
30 to 35 range, the stronger cells could have an isolated wind-damage
potential due to steep low-level lapse rates. Hail could also occur
but should be minimized due to the warm temperatures aloft.
..Broyles.. 07/09/2022
Read more
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 07:27:25 +0000
SPC Jul 9, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... From Tuesday
to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly
east-southeastward from the western Great Lakes to the Atlantic
coastal states. Ahead of the upper-level trough, a moist airmass
will destabilize each day, with scattered thunderstorms forming each
afternoon and evening from the southern and central Appalachians to
the Eastern Seaboard. An isolated severe threat will be possible
across much of the moist airmass, in areas that destabilize the
most. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak from the
Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, which should keep the
severe threat marginal each afternoon.
Further to the north, a mid-level jet of 55 to 65 knots is forecast
to move eastward across the Northeast on Tuesday. The mid-level
jet should create strong deep-layer shear across parts of the
Appalachians from Pennsylvania into New York. Although there is
some uncertainty concerning instability, MLCAPE should become strong
enough during the afternoon for severe storms. Wind damage and hail
would be the primary threats with the stronger storms that develop
and move off of the higher terrain.
...Friday/Day 7 to Saturday/Day 8... A moist airmass will be
in place across parts of the northern Plains from Thursday into
Friday. Large-scale subsidence, associated with an upper-level ridge,
should keep convective coverage very isolated.
On Saturday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of
the north-central U.S. as an upper-level ridge develops further to
the west, into the northern High Plains. Convective coverage should
again be isolated on Saturday due to the upper-level ridge. In spite
of capping issues, cells that can initiate during the late afternoon,
could be associated with an isolated severe threat.
Read more
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 08:58:13 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH...
...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts
of the Great Basin for today. Early-morning water vapor imagery
reveals a mid-level trough moving onshore across northern CA. This
feature will shift into the northern Rockies through the day,
augmenting mid and low-level flow over the Great Basin and central
Rockies in response. The combination of an antecedent dry air mass,
receptive fuels, and increasing winds will result in critical to
elevated fire weather conditions.
...Great Basin... 00 UTC soundings from NV and UT sampled a
very dry low-level air mass Friday evening with RH values in the
single digits. This air mass will largely remain in place and
promote afternoon RH values near 10% as low-level trajectories
continue to emanate largely from southern CA desert and/or off
the Sierra Nevada. Stronger mid and upper-level winds were also
noted in soundings along the West Coast ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough. These winds will overspread the Great Basin by
peak daytime heating, and when combined with deep boundary-layer
mixing, will support sustained 15-20 mph winds with frequent gusts
between 25-35 mph. Guidance continues to show increasing confidence
in sustained critical conditions across eastern NV into western
and northwestern UT. Brief critical conditions may extend into
southeast ID as winds gusts to near 30 mph, but these conditions
should remain somewhat localized/transient. Elevated conditions are
probable across northwest NV as well as central WY, but latest fuel
guidance continues to show only marginally dry fuels.
...Central High Plains... Localized elevated fire weather
conditions appear possible this afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains, most notably across the SD/WY/NE tri-state
region where winds between 15-20 mph are possible and RH values
may fall into the low teens. However, recent rainfall across this
region has allowed ERC values to fall to near seasonal normal,
mitigating the need for additional highlights.
..Moore.. 07/09/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 05:51:31 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger in parts of the
Great Basin and central Rockies for the remainder of the weekend. A
modest frontal passage in the wake of Saturday's mid-level wave
will induce westerly winds across much of the northern Great Basin
and northern Rockies. This will support areas of fire weather
concerns after several days of hot, dry weather. Additionally,
a weak monsoonal surge will support isolated dry thunderstorm
chances across parts of UT where fuels are receptive.
...Idaho into Wyoming... Westerly post-frontal winds are expected to
increase to 15-20 mph from the upper Snake River Plain in southeast
ID into the Wyoming Basin. Despite slightly cooler temperatures on
Sunday afternoon, dry air will remain in place and support another
day of 10-20% RH. Consequently, elevated (to perhaps locally
critical) fire weather concerns appear probable. Fine fuels across
the region continue to dry and are expected to be sufficiently
cured by Sunday afternoon to support the fire weather threat.
...Utah/Dry-Thunderstorms... The upper-level ridge is forecast to
gradually shift east over the next 48 hours, which will allow for a
weak surge of monsoonal moisture northward through the southern CO
River Valley into AZ/UT by Sunday afternoon. Although the quality
of mid-level moisture remains uncertain, several forecast soundings
show adequate instability and deep, dry sub-cloud layers supportive
of dry thunderstorms. Convection is possible across adjacent areas
of AZ and CO, but the dry-thunderstorm risk area is confined mainly
to portions of UT where fuels are expected to be most receptive.
..Moore.. 07/09/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 06:42:29 +0000
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