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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.07.22 12:35z 327 Lines 12235 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1364_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-JUL22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RBS<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220716/1230Z 1364@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 16 09:55:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 16 09:55:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC MD 1491
MD 1491 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
Areas affected...Northeast ND
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 160920Z - 161115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A strong gust or two is possible across northeast ND over
the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...An organized convective line has moves steadily across
southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba for the past few
hours. Storm motion has remained around 30-35 kt, which should bring
the southern end of the convective line across the US/Canada border
into Rolette County ND within the next half hour.
Updraft intensity within the line has gradually decreased over the
past hour or so, likely due to the decreasing buoyancy with eastern
extent as well as displacement east of the stronger low to mid-level
flow. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and abundant low-level
moisture are in place downstream, and the line appears
well-organized. These factors will contribute to the potential for a
few stronger gusts for the next hour or two across northeast ND. A
stronger version of this line produced a near-severe gust of 47 kt
at CYBR at 08Z. Limited spatial extent and isolated nature of the
severe threat are expected to preclude the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48760019 48989998 49009797 48549769 48219859 48449985
48760019
Read more
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SPC Jul 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS...CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible for the Ozarks,
central Appalachians, and southwest Montana on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A large mid-level anticyclone will reside over the Four Corners on
Sunday. A mid-level low will slowly move east from the WA
coast/Vancouver Island into the Pacific Northwest. A weak and broad
mid-level trough will move east from the middle MS Valley into the
OH Valley, and a low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave trough will move
across New England during the day. The surface pattern will feature
a myriad of weak, diffuse boundaries, one of which will move across
the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley.
...Ozark Plateau to lower OH Valley...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday
morning from MO east into IN. Considerable cloud debris will likely
concentrate over the lower OH Valley where buoyancy will be weak.
Farther west, a surface front will push southward during the day.
Strong heating is expected on the edge of stabilizing effects
associated with the early-midday precipitation. A deeper, mixed
boundary layer will likely evolve by afternoon from northern AR into
eastern OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
during the late afternoon/early evening. Isolated severe gusts/wind
damage and/or large hail are possible with the stronger storms.
...Central Appalachians...
A relatively moist airmass featuring modest lapse rates is forecast
ahead of the OH Valley mid-level trough. Model forecast soundings
indicate moderate buoyancy will develop by early afternoon. As weak
forcing for ascent spreads east into the area, scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop by early afternoon. Locally
strong, damaging gusts are possible with the more water-laden cores.
...Southwest MT...
Despite the Pacific NW mid-level low only slowly approaching the
region during the period, a belt of moderate southwesterly flow is
forecast to overspread the region. Orographic lift will likely
serve as the primary impetus for isolated storms during the late
afternoon/early evening. Relatively dry sub-cloud layers will
promote evaporation and the potential for isolated severe gusts.
..Smith.. 07/16/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 16, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northeast
Montana eastward through North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota
on Monday and Monday night.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
central-southern Rockies, as a potent mid-level low/trough moves
east, cresting the ridge over the northern Rockies into the northern
Great Plains. A surface low initially over MT and downstream of the
mid-level wave, will develop eastward and deepen as it moves into ND
Monday night. A frontal zone will become draped generally from west
to east near the 48th parallel. Farther east, a mid-level trough
will move from the Lower Great Lakes through much of New England. A
surface low will develop northeastward from Lake Erie towards the
mouth of the St. Lawrence River.
...Montana/ND/MN...
The aforementioned strong mid-level disturbance will move into the
northern High Plains during the day. Strong flow with a westerly
component will likely contribute to drying in the immediate lee of
the higher terrain. Nonetheless, model guidance varies somewhat and
isolated thunderstorms may occur across much of central MT during
the afternoon. A more likely scenario entails initial storms
developing near/north of the low within a corridor of low-level
moisture. Steep lapse rates and strengthening mid- to high-level
flow (effective shear increasing to 50 kt by early evening) will
favor storm organization. Supercells capable of mainly a hail risk
may eventually coalesce into a cluster of storms during the evening
with a hail/wind threat accompanying this activity. A strengthening
LLJ during the evening and associated warm-air advection near the
west-east boundary will aid in additional storms perhaps during the
evening and especially into the overnight over ND/MN. The risk for
hail/wind may persist through the end of the day-3 period over
ND/MN.
...Southern New England...
A likely messy/complicated scenario seemingly exists for isolated
severe on Monday across parts of the Northeast.
Showers/thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage during the
day over NY/PA within a relatively moist airmass featuring dewpoints
in the 60s to lower 70s. Planar model guidance implies and forecast
soundings show weak lapse rates which will likely limit buoyancy.
However, greater buoyancy will probably develop over southern New
England (richer moisture) and will be more favorably displaced to
the east from early-day shower/storm activity. However,
strengthening low- to mid-level flow will act to enlarge hodographs.
Although details are nebulous, it is plausible that some storm-scale
rotation potential exists given the moist/sheared environment. This
activity will likely diminish during the evening due to convective
overturning and diurnal heat loss.
..Smith.. 07/16/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance continues to highlight the potential for
severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes on Tuesday (day 4). A powerful mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to move from the ND/MT/Saskatchewan border
east-southeastward into the western Great Lakes on Day 4 and
subsequently into the central Great Lakes by Wednesday night. A
reservoir of rich low-level moisture will likely encompass much of
the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast during the
Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Mesoscale details are still uncertain
at this time. However, will maintain a highlight over the Upper
Midwest/western Great Lakes on Tuesday due to above-average
confidence in severe potential.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Ridging will remain dominant across much of the western and central
US as very warm and very dry conditions persist. A shortwave trough
along the northwestern periphery of the mid-level anticyclone will
move ashore across the West Coast later in the day. Accompanying
stronger mid-level flow should gradually expand across the Great
Basin and southern Cascades, bolstering modest surface winds for a
few hours. Across the Southwest, monsoon thunderstorms are expected
to remain mostly wet, while very warm conditions (temperatures
100F+) and weak winds will continue across the Plains.
...Northern Great Basin and southern Cascades...
Modest westerly winds through the higher terrain are forecast across
much of northern NV and southeastern OR today. Mid-level flow is
forecast to slowly weaken through the morning before rebounding
ahead of the trough moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest. As
a result, low-level winds should remain modest through the first
half of the day. However, hi-res guidance does show increasing
probabilities for sustained 15-20 mph winds later in the afternoon
coincident with sub 15% RH across the northern Great Basin/southern
Cascades. Given dry area fuels, elevated fire weather conditions may
develop later this afternoon, persisting into the evening.
..Lyons.. 07/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
On the periphery of the dominant mid-level anticyclone across the
Southwest, a Pacific trough will deepen as it moves inland over the
Northwest Coast Sunday. A cold front will move ashore supporting
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Cascades. At the same
time, gusty westerly winds will develop through the higher terrain
into the northern Great Basin. A dry and warm airmass beneath the
upper ridge will support elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions Sunday.
...Northern Great Basin/southern Cascades...
As the upper trough moves inland and deepens Sunday, mid-level flow
is forecast to accelerate across much of the southern Cascades and
northern Great Basin. Model guidance shows 20 mph sustained winds
are likely with locally higher gusts near and through the higher
terrain gaps across southeastern OR, into northern NV and
southwestern ID. Dry and warm conditions on the edge of the upper
ridge will support widespread surface humidity below 15%. The
overlap of gusty downslope winds and warm/dry surface conditions
should support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns, given dry area fuels.
..Lyons.. 07/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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