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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.07.22 14:00z 393 Lines 15881 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1641_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-JUL22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220720/1230Z 1641@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 20 08:58:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 20 08:58:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jul 20 08:58:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 20 08:58:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Jul 20, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern lower
Michigan into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The primary severe risk
will be damaging gusts, though isolated hail and a tornado or two
are also possible.
...Lower MI/OH Valley...
Seasonally strong upper low is progressing east-southeast across
northern MN early this morning. This trough will shift to Lake MI by
18z before advancing into southeast ON by 21/12z. Strong, focused
height falls will spread across the Great Lakes ahead of this
feature, primarily north of the mid-level jet that will translate
across southern WI into lower MI. Latest model guidance suggest the
associated surface front will be roughly coincident with the upper
trough, and this boundary should be the primary focus for
strong/severe thunderstorm development later today as it moves
across lower MI/OH Valley.
Strong surface heating is forecast by late morning across lower
MI/northern IN ahead of the wind shift. This will contribute to
substantial buoyancy (SBCAPE) as convective temperatures are
breached by 19z at APN (1200 J/kg), JXN (3500 J/kg), and GVS (4000
J/kg). Current thinking is isolated supercells should evolve
along/east of this corridor where large-scale forcing for ascent
will be maximized. This activity should advance east toward southern
ON by late afternoon. Additional development will be delayed a few
hours southwestward along the boundary into southern IN/KY; although
this trailing front will likely aid isolated activity even further
southwest with time. Initial discrete supercells should mature into
more complex storm modes with potential for line segments, or at
least discontinuous clustering ahead of the short wave. Damaging
winds along with some hail threat can be expected.
...Elsewhere...
A few strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms will be noted
across the upper Red River Valley region, ahead of the front from
western TN into southern OK/north-central TX, and perhaps along the
east slopes of the southern CO/northern NM mountains. Strong heating
will prove instrumental in each of these regions for potential
robust development. Locally damaging winds will be the primary risk
with isolated convection that develops during the latter part of the
afternoon.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 07/20/2022
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SPC Jul 20, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging
wind gusts appear possible over parts of the Northeast and Southeast
on Thursday.
...Northeast...
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. A related surface low should
develop northeastward across Quebec through the day, with a trailing
cold front sweeping eastward across much of New England through the
period. A rather moist airmass will likely be present ahead of the
cold front, with surface dewpoints mostly in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Daytime heating of this airmass should aid in the development of
around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Thursday afternoon. 35-50
kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the upper trough
are forecast to be present over the Northeast. 30-40 kt of effective
bulk shear should foster updraft organization, with both multicells
and supercells possible.
Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop by late
Thursday morning or early afternoon along a pre-frontal surface
trough across northern NY into VT/NH. This convection should
strengthen as it encounters a favorable thermodynamic environment.
Any supercells that can be sustained should pose a threat for severe
hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado given forecast
0-1-km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 associated with a south-southwesterly
low-level jet. Thunderstorms will probably congeal into small bowing
clusters with time Thursday afternoon as they continue moving
eastward from eastern NY into New England. As this process occurs,
damaging winds should become the primary severe threat. Thunderstorm
intensity should decrease towards the Atlantic Coast Thursday
evening as instability should be more limited with eastward extent.
The southern extent of appreciable severe risk and thunderstorm
coverage toward the NYC metro and vicinity remains somewhat
uncertain, as large-scale ascent should be weaker farther south.
Regardless, have maintained Marginal severe probabilities across
southern NY into northern NJ with a favorable environment forecast.
...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
A very moist low-level airmass will likely exist across these
regions on Thursday ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints should
generally be in the low to mid 70s, and robust diurnal heating of
this airmass should foster the development of strong instability
through the day. Mid-level winds on the southern extent of an upper
trough are forecast to remain fairly weak. But, modest (15-25 kt) of
mid-level flow may promote some convective organization. Although
details remain unclear regarding convective evolution, multiple
clusters of thunderstorms should develop along/ahead of the front by
Thursday afternoon, and spread east-southeastward through the early
evening. With a very favorable thermodynamic environment expected,
along with steepened low-level lapse rates, isolated to scattered
damaging winds may occur with the strongest convection. Have
expanded the Slight Risk from MS/AL into more of north/central GA,
SC, and central NC, where there is a better signal in various model
guidance for robust convection.
..Gleason.. 07/20/2022
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SPC Jul 20, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday from parts
of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, and from portions of
the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
An elongated upper trough/low with multiple centers should remain
over parts of central/eastern Canada on Friday. A belt of enhanced
mid-level west-northwesterly flow is forecast to remain over much of
the northern tier of the CONUS through the period. At the surface, a
weak low should develop generally eastward over south-central Canada
and ND through the day, with another area of low pressure
potentially centered over SD. Rich low-level moisture should remain
confined along/south of a weak front that is forecast to extend from
parts of the central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest.
Moderate to strong instability should develop across the warm sector
with daytime heating, but a cap may inhibit thunderstorm development
for much of the day.
Still, some guidance suggests that isolated to scattered convection
will develop from parts of NE into northern/central IA, southern MN,
and WI by late Friday afternoon. This region will have only
modest/nebulous large-scale ascent present aloft, but sufficient
veering/strengthening of the wind profile with height through
mid-levels should support convective organization with any
thunderstorms that can develop along/near the front. Have included
low severe probabilities for now given the uncertainty with overall
thunderstorm coverage and placement, but the overall environment
appears sufficient for multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells
posing a threat for both isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...
Mid-level heights are forecast to slowly rise across most of the
Mid-Atlantic into New England on Friday. Even with generally
subsident flow aloft, there is a signal in most guidance that
convection may develop ahead of a secondary cold front as a weak
mid-level perturbation traverses over these regions. Forecast
instability and shear appear adequate for an isolated severe threat
with any thunderstorms that can form. Have opted to include a
Marginal Risk for parts of southern NY into northern PA/NJ and far
southern New England where the best signal for robust convection
exists.
..Gleason.. 07/20/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 20, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an upper low will
persist over eastern Canada this upcoming weekend. Upper ridging
should also remain centered over the southern CONUS in this time
frame. In between these two features, a low-amplitude shortwave
trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday. Rich low-level
moisture should be in place ahead of a front across parts of the
Upper Midwest, with moderate to locally strong instability forecast.
Enhanced mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough should act
to organize any thunderstorms that can develop along/ahead of the
front Saturday afternoon and evening. At this point, there is enough
confidence in robust thunderstorms developing to introduce a 15%
severe area for parts of the Upper Midwest on Saturday. Deep-layer
shear appears strong enough for a mix of multicells and supercells,
with some potential for an MCS and greater threat for severe winds
to develop as convection possibly grows upscale along the front.
Some severe threat may exist on Day 5/Sunday across parts of the
Northeast into the OH Valley ahead of a front as an upper trough
continues eastward. But, there is currently too much uncertainty
regarding forecast instability to include a 15% severe delineation.
The predictability of organized severe thunderstorms quickly
decreases from Day 6/Monday onward, as generally low-amplitude
perturbations move across the northern tier of the CONUS on the
northern periphery of a persistent upper ridge.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A prominent mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the flow
regime across the Four Corners and western US as a shortwave trough
and ribbon of stronger flow aloft shift east toward the Great Lakes.
Beneath the ridge, weak winds and extreme heat near a stalled front
will develop over the southern and central Plains supporting
localized fire weather concerns.
...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies...
Weak downslope flow will linger in the dry post-frontal airmass
across the northern Great Basin, into WY and the central High Plains
today. With mid-level flow decreasing as the ridge builds, sustained
surface winds are not expected to reach more than 15-20 mph locally.
Despite the weak winds, surface RH below 20% may support a few hours
of locally elevated fire weather conditions given drought-stressed
fuels. The most likely corridors for elevated fire weather concerns
will remain near the lee of the higher terrain where downslope flow
is forecast to be the strongest.
...Southern Plains...
Another day of extreme heat is forecast beneath the strong upper
ridge over the western US. 100F+ surface temperatures will support
deep mixing heights and surface RH below 25%. Surface winds are
expected to remain light, with the exception of locally stronger
gusts near the stalled cold front and beneath high-based storms
later in the afternoon. While flow will be light, the extreme heat
and dry airmass may support a few hours of locally elevated to near
critical fire concerns given exceptionally dry fuels.
Isolated high-based thunderstorms will also be possible along the
stalled front mainly across central OK and north TX this afternoon.
While storms are not forecast to be dry given PWAT values of 1.2-1.5
inches, the hot temperatures and deep mixing heights may support a
few drier lightning strikes away from the main precipitation cores.
With area fuels critically dry, a few lightning ignitions will be
possible.
..Lyons.. 07/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On the periphery of the strong western US ridge, an upper-level
trough will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest Thursday.
Stronger mid-level flow will gradually develop inland over the
northern Great Basin and Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front
will move south stalling across the central High Plains. Gusty
northwest winds will be possible along and behind the front, along
with low RH. While no fire weather areas will be added, locally
gusty winds and dry conditions will continue to support marginal
fire weather concerns.
...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies...
As the upper trough moves further inland through the afternoon,
increasing southwesterly flow should support a gradual uptick in
downslope winds off the higher terrain. While not overly strong,
occasional gusts to 20 mph will be possible. Given RH values below
20% and very dry fuels, some localized fire weather threat will
likely develop. Gusty winds may linger overnight behind the
slow-moving cold front. While RH values should begin to recover, the
gusty winds may prolong localized fire weather concerns for a few
hours after sunset.
...Southern Plains...
While slightly cooler than the previous days, warm temperatures and
low surface RH will again persist beneath the strong upper ridge.
Locally gusty winds near the stalled front and beneath high-based
afternoon/evening storms, capable of occasional lightning strikes,
may contribute to locally elevated fire weather concerns given
drought-stricken fuels.
..Lyons.. 07/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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