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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.07.22 12:32z 477 Lines 15756 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1897_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-JUL22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220724/1230Z 1897@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497
WW 497 SEVERE TSTM IL WI 240540Z - 241200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Illinois
Southern Wisconsin
* Effective this Sunday morning from 1240 AM until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A complex of thunderstorms, initially in the eastern parts
of severe-thunderstorm watch 496, will continue to pose a threat of
severe wind as it moves into favorably moist/unstable air astride
the IL/WI border region, and before it encounters cooler,
more-stable outflow air near Lake Michigan.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of
Janesville WI to 40 miles east southeast of Janesville WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 496...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Edwards
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497 Status Reports
WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MMO TO
30 ESE JVL TO 20 S RAC.
..GLEASON..07/24/22
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC037-089-097-111-241040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB KANE LAKE
MCHENRY
LMZ740-241040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LMZ740
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496 Status Reports
WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 496
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MLI TO
25 ENE DBQ.
..GLEASON..07/24/22
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC045-097-240740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON JACKSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Jul 24 09:29:07 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 24 09:29:07 UTC
2022.
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SPC Jul 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the lower Great
Lakes vicinity into St. Lawrence Valley by late this afternoon,
accompanied by the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes, in
addition to damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
Lower/mid tropospheric ridging appears likely to remain prominent
from the subtropical western Atlantic through much of the southern
tier of the U.S., with mid-level ridging also amplifying within the
westerlies offshore of the British Columbia coast. Downstream of
the building ridge, at least a couple of short wave troughs are
forecast to dig to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S.
Rockies. Farther east, more prominent mid-level troughing,
including a developing low, appears likely to continue to evolve to
the south of Hudson Bay, across Ontario into Quebec and adjacent
portions of the Great Lakes region into the Northeast.
Within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow regime, models
indicate that a convectively generated or enhanced lower/mid
tropospheric jet streak will propagate into and across the lower
Great Lakes region through St. Lawrence Valley by early evening, to
the south of a deepening surface cyclone across western Quebec. A
cold front trailing the cyclone appears likely to advance to the lee
of the lower Great Lakes by late this evening, and through much of
the middle Mississippi Valley and central Great Plains by late
tonight.
...Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Remnant convective cloud cover and at least some precipitation may
overspread much of the region during the day, initially inhibiting
or slowing boundary-layer destabilization. However, in the wake of
this activity, and generally aligned with the southwesterly to
westerly jet streak (probably including 40-50+ kt speeds in the
850-700 mb layer), a corridor of substantive boundary-layer
destabilization seems likely across the lower Great Lakes vicinity
into St. Lawrence Valley, in response to low-level moistening and
insolation. This may include mixed-layer CAPE on the order of
1000-2000+ J/kg, with higher values west-southwestward ahead of the
front into a weakening flow regime across parts of the Ohio Valley
by late this afternoon.
In response to the destabilization, and forcing for ascent ahead of
the larger-scale mid-level troughing, thunderstorms may initiate
along and ahead of the lake breezes, where strong deep-layer shear
and sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may become
conducive to isolated supercells with the potential to produce
tornadoes. Other storms are expected to form closer to the front
across parts of southeastern Ontario (and into the Ohio Valley),
with activity as whole tending to growing upscale, with the primary
severe hazard transitioning to mainly potentially damaging wind
gusts, before weakening by late evening while spreading
east-southeastward.
...Montana into Colorado Rockies and adjacent plains...
In the wake of the cold front to the lee of the Rockies, models
indicate that moistening easterly/southeasterly near surface flow
and daytime heating may contribute to areas of modest boundary-layer
CAPE by late this afternoon, as lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates
steepen. Beneath modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow,
particularly ahead of short wave digging across parts of the
northern Rockies, this may become conducive to organizing convection
posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail.
..Kerr/Weinman.. 07/24/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday across
portions of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states. Damaging gusts
will be the primary severe hazard. Isolated severe storms will also
be possible over portions of the northern and central High Plains.
...Northeast/mid-Atlantic states...
A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast U.S.
Monday, extending generally from north-central ME southwest to
central PA and then southwest in the vicinity of the Ohio River by
00z Tuesday. In advance of the front, a very moist air mass,
characterized by widespread 70s dew points and PW values near 2
inches, will be in place. Cloud cover/morning precipitation could
temper daytime heating to some degree, however expect MLCAPE to
range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg, locally higher by afternoon.
Seasonably strong low/mid-level flow will be in place resulting in
mostly unidirectional wind fields and 30-50 kts of effective shear,
with the highest values across northern portions of the risk area.
Clusters or line segments of strong/severe storms appear probable
during the afternoon/early evening capable of damaging downburst
winds. Relatively long/straight hodographs in RAP/NAM forecast
soundings support supercell structures from the northern Delmarva
northward across the Slight Risk area.
...Portions of OH/TN Valley west to mid-Missouri Valley...
Thunderstorms should develop along the cold front during the
afternoon within a moderately unstable air mass. Although effective
shear will be weaker, deep moist thermodynamic profiles and high PW
values should support multicell clusters capable of isolated
damaging downburst winds.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across
northeast WY/western SD and move southeast through evening. Moderate
MLCAPE beneath the eastern periphery of an EML and around 30 kts of
WNW mid-level flow should support supercells capable of severe hail
and strong wind gusts.
...Mid-Missouri Valley...
Developing warm advection Monday night associated with a 40-45 kt
low-level jet should support thunderstorm development over northeast
KS/northern MO. Uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe
threat precludes severe probabilities with this outlook, however
this will be re-evaluated in subsequent issuances.
..Bunting.. 07/24/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 24, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the mid-Atlantic
region west to portions of the central Plains. Damaging gusts will
be the primary severe hazard.
...Mid-Atlantic west to lower Missouri Valley...
A front, reinforced by convective outflows, will extend from the
mid-Atlantic coast west into the central Plains Tuesday afternoon.
As an upper-level low over Ontario Province moves south, some
increase in westerly mid-level flow will occur in the vicinity of
the front resulting in effective shear of 30-35 kts. A very moist
air mass will remain in place with surface dew points generally in
the 70s, supporting moderate/pockets of strong buoyancy by
afternoon. Thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the front
will pose a risk for damaging downburst winds, aided by steep
low-level lapse rates in areas with more substantial heating. The
severe threat should generally diminish during the late evening.
..Bunting.. 07/24/2022
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SPC Jul 24, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The upper-level pattern over the CONUS during the period will be
characterized by a broad trough over the northern Plains/Great Lakes
and northeast U.S., and persistent high pressure centered over the
Great Basin. Along the southern extent of the upper trough, a
nearly stationary surface front, reinforced by episodic convective
outflows, will extend from the mid-Atlantic coast into the central
Plains for much of the upcoming week. The front will serve as a
focus for at least low probabilities for severe storms each day,
likely aided by low-amplitude impulses that are difficult to time at
this extended range. Lacking an apparent feature that would allow
for the introduction of daily 15% severe probabilities, will
maintain low predictability with this outlook.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
A compact midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward from the
Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies today. Within the
base of the trough, deep/enhanced westerly flow will overspread
parts of southern ID into western WY -- where single-digit to lower
teens RH will develop during the afternoon. The combination of 15-20
mph sustained westerly surface winds, critically low RH, and
receptive fuels will result in elevated to spotty critical
fire-weather conditions this afternoon.
In addition, increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave
trough will encourage widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms
over eastern ID into western MT. As these storms overspread a
hot/deeply-mixed boundary layer and receptive fuels, isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any
precipitation cores.
Farther south over the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface
winds near 15 mph will develop in response to a weak surface low
near northwest OK. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20-25
percent minimum RH could lead to locally elevated conditions from
the TX/OK Panhandles into western OK. However, these conditions
appear too marginal/localized for Elevated highlights.
..Weinman.. 07/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad large-scale troughing will persist over the northern Rockies
and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough emerges over
the central High Plains. As enhanced westerly flow accompanying the
shortwave trough overspreads a deepening boundary layer over
southern WY, locally elevated conditions will be possible. On the
backside of the large-scale troughing, subsidence-induced drying
will result in widespread 10-15 percent minimum RH over parts of the
Intermountain West. While weak surface winds should generally
mitigate the fire-weather risk, locally elevated conditions will be
possible over terrain-favored areas.
Over the southern Plains, another day of locally elevated conditions
will be possible as breezy southerly surface winds overlap 20-25
percent minimum RH. However, the anticipated localized nature of the
threat precludes Elevated highlights at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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