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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.07.22 15:00z 346 Lines 12835 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1974_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-JUL22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220725/1230Z 1974@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 25 09:31:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 25 09:31:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Jul 25 09:31:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 25 09:31:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Jul 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across northern Mid
Atlantic and New England coastal areas this afternoon, primarily
accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
Lower/mid-tropospheric ridging appears likely to remain prominent
from the subtropical western Atlantic west-northward into the
southern Rockies vicinity through this period. However, models
indicate that mid-level flow will continue to trend broadly
cyclonic, east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies into the
northern Atlantic Seaboard, downstream of ridging which may amplify
further within the westerlies, near and inland of the British
Columbia coast.
Within the broad mid-level troughing, a couple of prominent
perturbations are forecast to continue to evolve, with a number of
smaller-scale embedded perturbations. One may include an elongating
mid-level low east of James Bay toward Newfoundland and Labrador and
the Canadian Maritimes, while another possibly includes a developing
cyclonic circulation digging to the east of the Canadian Maritimes
by 12Z Tuesday.
In association with this regime, an influx of cooler air is already
underway east of the northern Rockies, across parts of the northern
Great Plains into the Northeast. The leading edge of this air mass
may continue slowly southeast of the lower Great Lakes and St.
Lawrence Valley, across much of the northern through middle Atlantic
Seaboard by late tonight, while the southwestern flank remains
quasi-stationary across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley into
the central Great Plains.
...Northern Mid Atlantic and New England coastal areas...
Stronger daytime heating within pre-frontal surface troughing
appears most likely to become the primary focus for thunderstorm
initiation and intensification today, aided by ascent downstream of
the lead large-scale mid-level trough axis. It appears that this
probably will remain mostly scattered in nature. However, despite
generally weak lapse rates, seasonably high moisture content
(supportive of moderately large CAPE), coupled with 30-50 kt
southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, will
contribute to a risk for severe storms.
Isolated supercells are possible initially, but damaging wind gusts
appear the primary potential severe hazard as heavy precipitation
loading aids downward momentum transfer in upscale growing clusters.
This may commence by early afternoon and continue into this evening
before spreading offshore and/or weakening.
...Lower Missouri Valley...
Convective potential across the region remains somewhat unclear, but
there appears a consistent signal among model output that the
frontal zone will become enhanced across the region by strong
differential surface heating, beneath the remnants of elevated
mixed-layer air. A narrow plume of seasonably high boundary-layer
moisture content and precipitable water may focus along this
corridor, while a convectively generated or enhanced perturbation
emerges from the higher plains (within the monsoonal regime)
accompanied by a 30-40+ kt lower/mid-tropospheric speed maximum.
A similar strength low-level jet may also develop by this evening,
and contribute to an environment at least conditionally supportive
of organized severe convection. This could include isolated
supercell development initially this evening across parts of
northeastern Kansas into west central Missouri, before convection
grows upscale and perhaps evolves into a forward propagating system
with increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts,
near/north of the Missouri River.
..Kerr/Weinman.. 07/25/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEST TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the
mid-Atlantic region west to portions of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley region, and also over the central High Plains. Damaging
winds will be the primary severe hazard, with severe hail possible
across the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low over Manitoba/Ontario Provinces will move south
towards the international border on Tuesday as an embedded shortwave
trough rotates around the low towards the upper Midwest. A
convectively enhanced low amplitude impulse will move from the OH
Valley across the mid-Atlantic region during the day. A surface
front should extend along the northeast coast to the Delmarva
Peninsula, then extend west to near the KS/OK border Tuesday
afternoon. A cold front associated with the northern Plains impulse
will move east across the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest.
...Mid-Atlantic west to OH/TN Valley...
Ongoing precipitation is expected Tuesday morning in the vicinity of
the surface front, aided by warm advection associated with a
weakening westerly low-level jet. Re-intensification of ongoing
storms, and new storm development are anticipated during the
afternoon as ascent with the low-amplitude impulse interacts with a
moderately unstable air mass (pockets of MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg).
Westerly effective shear of 30-40 kts will support organized storms,
with isolated cells capable of strong/severe gusts mainly during the
afternoon. Uncertainty regarding extent and location of morning
storms may necessitate adjustments to the risk area in later
outlooks.
...Southeast Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle...
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may develop over southeast WY where
low-level easterly flow will reside beneath moderately strong
northwest mid-level winds, resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear
for organized storms. Modest instability will be in place with
MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg, and this should support a couple of
southeast-moving supercells posing a risk for severe hail and wind.
...Eastern Nebraska north to Southern Minnesota...
Although severe probabilities have not been included with this
outlook, some potential may exist for isolated strong storms along
the eastward-moving cold front Tuesday afternoon. Uncertainty
regarding the degree of destabilization in advance of the cold front
and storm development/coverage remain too great to include severe
probabilities.
..Bunting.. 07/25/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 25, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEST TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible
from the mid-Atlantic coast to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
Isolated severe storms over the central Plains may produce severe
hail and damaging gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic to southern Missouri...
An east-west surface front will extend from the mid-Atlantic coast
west to near the KS-OK border Wednesday afternoon. Ongoing morning
clouds/precipitation will influence subsequent differential
heating/destabilization in the vicinity of the front, however it
appears that pockets of moderate buoyancy will once again develop
during the afternoon. The front resides along the southern extent
of stronger westerly mid-level flow (35-40 kts), and this will
support the potential for a few clusters of strong to severe storms
capable of primarily damaging winds.
...Central Plains...
Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible across the
central High Plains Wednesday afternoon in an environment with
effective shear 35-40 kts and MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg. Initial
supercell structures may evolve into a southeast-moving cluster
during the evening with an attendant isolated severe hail and wind
threat.
..Bunting.. 07/25/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 25, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper-level cyclone over Ontario Province will lift northeast on
Thursday/Day 4-Friday/Day 5, with broad troughing/weaker mid-level
flow remaining established from the northern Plains to New England
Saturday/Day 6 and beyond. Upper-level high pressure will extend
from the Great Basin/Central Rockies to the Gulf Coast/FL. A
slow-moving surface front will extend from New England southwest
across the OH/TN Valley region and central/southern Plains on
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5. Although some severe-weather
potential will exist each day in the vicinity of the front,
confidence continues to be too low for a 15% daily delineation.
Thereafter, predictability remains too low given increasing spread
in model guidance.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will remain in
place across the northern CONUS, while a compact shortwave trough
crosses the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. As moderate
midlevel flow accompanying the shortwave trough overspreads a
diurnally deepening boundary layer over southern WY, a corridor of
15 mph sustained westerly surface winds will be possible amid 10-15
percent RH. However, recent light to moderate rainfall over the area
and only marginally elevated conditions cast uncertainty on the
overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at
this time.
Farther south over parts of the southern Plains, breezy southerly
surface winds will develop in response to a weak surface low near
the OK Panhandle. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20-25
percent minimum RH, could result in locally elevated conditions
where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. With that said, these
conditions look too marginal/spotty for highlights.
..Weinman.. 07/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad large-scale troughing will persist over the northern CONUS,
while an embedded midlevel speed max impinges on the northern
Rockies and adjacent Plains. On the backside of the large-scale
trough and speed max, modest northwesterly midlevel flow will
overspread parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies --
where widespread 10-15 percent minimum RH is expected. The
combination of hot/dry boundary-layer conditions and locally breezy
surface winds could support spotty elevated conditions over the
aforementioned areas during the afternoon.
Over the southern Plains, another day of locally elevated conditions
will be possible as breezy southerly surface winds overlap 15-20
percent minimum RH. However, these conditions look too localized for
highlights.
..Weinman.. 07/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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