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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.07.22 12:44z 348 Lines 13566 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2059_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-JUL22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220726/1230Z 2059@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 26 08:22:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 26 08:22:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jul 26 08:22:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 26 08:22:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Jul 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with damaging winds will
be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic westward into the
lower Ohio Valley, and in parts of the mid Missouri Valley. A few
storms with hail and strong winds will also be possible in parts of
the central Plains.
...Mid-Atlantic/Southern Appalachians/Lower Ohio Valley...
At the surface, a warm front will move northward today across the
mid Mississippi Valley, southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints mostly in the upper
60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization
across parts moist airmass to the south of the front. It appears
that the axis of greatest instability will from southeast Missouri
into western Kentucky, where RAP and NAM forecast soundings increase
MLCAPE into the 3000 to 3500 J/kg by afternoon. The moderate
instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates should be
enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, 0-6 km shear is
only forecast to be in the 20 to 25 knot range across the lower Ohio
Valley, which should limit storm organization.
Further to the east, the potential for strong thunderstorms will be
dependent upon destabilization. Morning convection in some areas
across the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic will likely limit
the severe potential. In spite of this, areas where the airmass
remains undisturbed during the morning, could heat up enough for a
marginal wind-damage threat by afternoon.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward into
the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute
to some pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. RAP and NAM
forecast soundings along the instability axis by 21Z suggest MLCAPE
will reach the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from parts of northeast
Colorado northeastward into Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota and
far southwest Minnesota. Thunderstorms that develop along and ahead
of the front will move east-southeastward into the stronger
instability. In spite of warm air aloft, 0-6 km shear along the
instability axis is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This
could be enough for a hail threat associated with rotating cells
that develop during the late afternoon. A few strong wind gusts may
also occur.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/26/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...AND ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday from parts
of Missouri and Arkansas eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys and Mid Atlantic, with damaging wind gusts and isolated hail
possible. Isolated severe storms over the central High Plains may
produce severe hail and damaging gusts during the afternoon and
evening.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the
north-central and northeast CONUS on Wednesday, as multiple embedded
shortwave troughs move from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes
region through the period. In conjunction with this trough, a
surface low is forecast to move eastward from northern Ontario
toward James Bay, as an attendant cold front moves through portions
of the central/northern Great Plains and upper Midwest.
...Ozark Plateau to the Mid Atlantic...
In the wake of extensive convection during the D1/Tuesday period, a
diffuse surface front is forecast to be draped from near the Ozark
Plateau eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. This front may serve as a
differential heating boundary and focus for renewed storm
development by Wednesday afternoon. Midlevel flow and deep-layer
shear will be strongest from the mid-MS Valley into the OH Valley
and Mid Atlantic, though the coverage of robust convection this far
north remains uncertain, due to potentially limited instability on
the cool side of the boundary. If sufficient destabilization can
occur this far north, a couple of organized clusters and/or marginal
supercells will be possible, posing a threat of damaging wind gusts
and perhaps isolated hail.
To the south of the surface boundary, scattered thunderstorm
development is expected by afternoon within a very warm/moist and
uncapped environment from northern AR eastward across TN/KY into NC.
Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this region, but may still be
sufficient to support a few loosely organized storm clusters with a
threat of at least isolated wind damage into the early evening.
...Central Plains...
One or more clusters of storms may be ongoing across western NE and
vicinity Wednesday morning. Steep midlevel lapse rates may support
an isolated hail threat with any such activity. If morning
convection is not overly expansive or persistent, moist low-level
easterly flow north of an outflow-influenced surface boundary will
support weak-to-moderate surface-based destabilization by afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible near the
boundary, and also potentially across the higher terrain of
southeast WY/northern CO. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will
support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for a couple of
organized clusters and/or marginal supercells capable of isolated
hail and severe gusts.
..Dean.. 07/26/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 26, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks eastward
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Thursday. Locally damaging
wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat, though isolated
hail will also be possible.
...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist
over the north-central/northeast CONUS on Thursday. In conjunction
with this trough, a surface low is expected to move from near James
Bay eastward into western Quebec, as an attendant cold front moves
through parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and northern New England.
...Ozark Plateau into parts of the OH/TN Valleys...
Another active convective day is expected near a remnant surface
boundary, which is forecast to be draped from near the Ozark Plateau
eastward through the OH/TN Valleys. The location and magnitude of
the greatest instability remain uncertain due to the impact of
antecedent convection from D1/Tuesday and D2/Wednesday, but rich
low-level moisture will support moderate destabilization where any
substantial diurnal heating occurs near/south of the boundary. The
strongest midlevel flow will likely be displaced north of the
greater instability, but modestly enhanced westerlies above the
surface may support a few organized cells/clusters capable of
locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some hail.
...New England...
Moderate midlevel flow will overspread portions of New England on
Thursday, as a shortwave embedded within the large-scale
mid/upper-level trough approaches the region from the west.
Deep-layer shear may become sufficient to support some storm
organization, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of
low-level moisture return and diurnal destabilization. No
probabilities have been included for now, though some organized
severe threat cannot be ruled out on Thursday if sufficient
destabilization can occur.
..Dean.. 07/26/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 26, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The mid/upper-level trough that will persist over the north-central
and northeast CONUS for much of this week is forecast to accelerate
eastward on D4/Friday and be offshore of New England by D5/Saturday.
In its wake, a weaker trough may redevelop from the northern Plains
into the OH Valley and Northeast, as an upper ridge amplifies over
the West.
For D4/Friday, some severe threat may develop across parts of the
Mid Atlantic and Southeast in association with the departing
mid/upper trough, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of
instability and deep-layer shear along/ahead of the cold front. Some
severe threat may also evolve across parts of the central High
Plains (and eventually into the northern Plains) from D4/Friday into
the weekend, as moist low-level flow is maintained into the region
to the west of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS.
None of these scenarios appear to warrant 15% severe probabilities
at this time. Predictability begins to wane by D7/Monday, though
organized severe potential appears relatively limited into early
next week.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over parts of
northwest OK this afternoon, as 15 mph sustained southerly surface
winds (with higher gusts) develop in response to a weak surface low
over the area. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20 percent
minimum RH and highly receptive fuels warrant the Elevated
highlights -- especially given ongoing fires over the area.
Over the Intermountain West/Northern Great Basin, a belt of moderate
northwesterly midlevel flow and hot/dry boundary-layer conditions
could support spotty elevated fire-weather conditions during the
afternoon. This will especially be the case from southeast OR
eastward across southern ID into southwest WY. However, these
conditions look too localized/marginal for highlights. In addition,
an isolated high-based thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along
the Cascades from far north-central CA into south-central OR. If
this activity can develop, an isolated lightning-induced ignition
would be possible owing to very dry fuels across the area. With that
said, confidence in the development of any more than a storm or two
is too low for dry thunderstorm highlights at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/26/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will continue to amplify over the western CONUS,
where widespread hot/dry conditions are expected. Along the
northeastern periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse and
modest midlevel moisture could support isolated high-based
thunderstorms over parts of eastern ID, southwest MT, and northwest
WY. Any storms that can develop and overspread the hot/deeply-mixed
boundary layer and critically dry fuels could result in isolated
ignitions away from any precipitation cores.
Farther west over far north-central CA into south-central OR, an
isolated high-based thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along
the Cascades. However, minimal large-scale ascent and substantial
convective inhibition cast uncertainty on thunderstorm development
-- precluding dry thunderstorm highlights at this time. However, if
storms can initiate over this area, isolated lightning-induced
ignitions would be possible given highly receptive fuels.
Over the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface winds and low RH
could result in locally elevated conditions, though these conditions
look too marginal for highlights.
..Weinman.. 07/26/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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