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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.07.22 13:00z 390 Lines 16144 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2210_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-JUL22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220728/1230Z 2210@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 28 08:40:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 28 08:40:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Jul 28 08:40:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 28 08:40:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Jul 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and hail will be
likely across parts of the Northeast today. Marginally severe wind
gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the central Rockies
and High Plains. Isolated marginally severe winds could also occur
today from parts of the central Plains eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley, and in the southern and central Appalachian
mountains.
...Northeast...
An upper-level low will move eastward across Ontario today as an
associated trough moves across the Great Lakes. Ahead of the trough,
mid-level flow will be southwesterly and divergent across the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move into the Great
Lakes today as a pre-frontal trough deepens in the lee of the
Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of maximized low-level
moisture will be located from the Ohio Valley into the lower Great
Lakes, where moderate instability will likely develop by late
morning. Surface heating, along with large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough, will result in scattered thunderstorm
development by midday from western New York south-southwestward into
western Pennsylvania. This convection will move eastward into
eastern New York and eastern Pennsylvania by mid to late afternoon.
RAP and NAM forecast soundings ahead of the developing convection
this afternoon, from the Hudson River Valley eastward into western
New England, increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be near 50 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates increasing to
between 7.5 and 8.0 C/km. This environment, along with southwesterly
unidirectional flow from 850 mb to 500 mb and an eastward cell
movement near 40 knots, will likely be favorable for wind damage
along the leading edge of the more intense line segments. The
greatest wind-damage potential should exist during the late
afternoon from eastern New York into Vermont, New Hampshire,
Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and into far western Maine.
The severe threat may be marginal in parts of central Maine and
across southeast Massachusetts where instability is forecast to
remain weak.
...Central Appalachians/Mid Atlantic...
A cold front will move through the Great Lakes region today. Surface
heating ahead of the front in the southern and central Appalachians
will result in convection development by mid to late morning. Storms
will increase in coverage, moving eastward through the higher
terrain of the southern and central Appalachians. Pockets of
moderate instability could develop ahead of this convection, mainly
in areas that have the strongest surface heating. Although
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain near or below 30 knots
through much of the southern and central Appalachians, 0-3 km lapse
rates should become steep enough for a marginal wind-damage threat.
The threat could reach parts of the Mid Atlantic by early evening.
...Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A cold front will move southward into the southern Plains and Ozarks
today. An east-to-west corridor of maximized low-level moisture will
be in place behind the front from southeast Kansas eastward into
western Kentucky. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm
development is expected across much of the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Although deep-layer shear will remain relatively
weak, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase into the 7.5 to
8.5 C/km range in areas that heat up the most. This should support a
marginal wind-damage threat with the most intense multicells.
...Central Rockies/Southern and Central High Plains...
Upslope flow will be in place today across much of the southern and
central High Plains. This will keep a moist airmass from southeast
Wyoming southward into far northeast New Mexico, where surface
dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. The low-level moisture and
surface heating will contribute to pockets of moderate instability
by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in the higher terrain will
move east-southeastward into the stronger instability. RAP and NAM
forecast soundings suggest that the combination of instability and
deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat
in two areas. The first is from southeast Wyoming into north-central
Colorado. The second is from southeast Colorado into the northwest
Texas Panhandle. In these two areas, marginally severe winds and
hail could occur with the stronger thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and early evening.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/28/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OZARKS/MID-SOUTH TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur from the
Ozarks/Mid-South to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, and over parts
of the south-central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the complex cyclone now over northern ON is
forecast to devolve into a positively tilted, open-wave, synoptic-
scale trough over central/northern QC early in this period. A
strong, basal shortwave trough -- now containing the primary 500-mb
low of the cyclone over northwestern ON -- will detach from the
cyclone center day-1, then pivot southeastward to eastward to the
upper Mississippi Valley and Lake Michigan by the start of day-2
(29/12Z). This trough then will accelerate eastward over the Upper
Great Lakes to NY or western New England, nearly in phase with a
nearby/trailing perturbation. These processes will maintain broadly
cyclonic flow aloft across the Ohio Valley to the Northeast and
northern Mid-Atlantic region. A series of convectively induced/
enhanced vorticity maxima -- some emanating from previous days'
convection in a frontal belt from the south-central High Plains to
the Ozarks -- will traverse the confluent flow belt leading from
those areas to the Tidewater region. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will
persist from the Bermuda high westward across the Gulf Coast States,
to NM and northern CA.
At the surface, a quasistationary frontal zone will remain across
the region from eastern NM across the TX Panhandle, parts of OK/AR,
east-northeastward to the Delmarva Peninsula by around 00Z. This
frontal zone will be reinforced by what is now a cold front located
from Lake Superior across IA to the central High Plains.
...Mid-Atlantic to Mid-South/Ozarks vicinity...
Diurnal thunderstorms are expected to form with greatest coverage in
and near the frontal zone, becoming more isolated southward into the
warm sector. The main concern will be isolated damaging to
marginally severe gusts from water-loaded downdrafts, and perhaps
from briefly upscale-growing clusters.
Rich low-level moisture will be prevalent, with surface dew points
commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and PW of 2 inches or more.
Diurnal heating away from persistent cloud/precip areas (from
aforementioned MCV activity and convective residues) will boost
afternoon MLCAPE commonly into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Low-level
flow will be modest across this entire belt. However, mid/upper
winds, ventilating flow aloft and cloud-layer shear will increase
eastward, especially east of the Appalachians on the southern
fringes of the mid/upper cyclonic-flow belt. Forecast soundings
depict modest low-level hodograph enlargement in the VA to Tidewater
region, and effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-45-kt range,
suggesting at least brief supercell structures may develop.
However, weak midlevel lapse rates and warm lower/middle-
tropospheric profiles indicate hail risk will be minimal.
...South-central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop along and north of the front,
offering isolated severe-gust potential. Sufficient moisture will
advect into the area on easterly boundary-layer wind components
north of the front to offset weak midlevel lapse rates for producing
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, in concert with diurnal heating. Forecast
soundings reasonably depict inverted-V low-level thermodynamic
profiles, with a well-mixed subcloud layer supporting large DCAPE,
and downdraft accelerations. Flow aloft will be weak, with erratic
storm motions and localized to mesobeta-scale cold-pool surges
possible from clustered, high-based multicells. The threat should
diminish through the evening as the boundary layer cools/stabilizes.
..Edwards.. 07/28/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely.
...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough
that will be over eastern Canada and in the northeastern CONUS on
day 2 will move eastward and weaken. This will leave behind
substantial height rises and slackening of mid/upper flow over the
central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region. Upstream, a
shortwave trough should move east-southeastward from the Canadian
Rockies region to the eastern MT/ND region overnight. Given the
nebulous origins of this perturbation -- with possible convective
enhancement from day-2 activity north of the international border,
its timing/intensity and associated low-level mass response are
quite uncertain. Given that, and lack of more-robust low-level
moisture, any severe potential with thunder in the related northern
Plains warm-advection regime overnight appears too uncertain and
conditional for an outlook area at this time.
Meanwhile, messy mid/upper-level ridging will persist from the
Southeast across the southern Plains and southern Rockies, becoming
more defined over the Great Basin and northern CA to the interior
Pacific Northwest. Amid associated weak deep-tropospheric flow, a
quasistationary low-level baroclinic zone will linger from the
Atlantic Tidewater region to the southern High Plains. Again day 3,
a few convectively induced/reinforced vorticity maxima aloft may
help to focus mesobeta-scale convective potential somewhere in that
corridor, in tandem with rich boundary-layer moisture and strong
diurnal heating. While isolated damaging downbursts cannot be ruled
out, organized severe potential appears minimal at this time frame.
..Edwards.. 07/28/2022
Read more
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SPC Jul 28, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Through the first few days of the period, mid/upper-level ridging
will persist across the Deep South, TX and the Desert Southwest.
Meanwhile the meridional branch of the ridge will shift eastward
from the Northwest across the northern Rockies and northern Plains
through day-5/1st-2nd. As that occurs, slight reamplification is
expected of the longstanding mean troughing over the Great Lakes,
while troughing also moves across (and inland from) the coastal
Northwest. The northwest-flow shortwave trough discussed in the
day-3 outlook may cross parts of the Great Lakes region days 4 and
5, aiding in convective potential near the nose of returning
low-level moisture. However, timing/amplitude uncertainties already
apparent at day 3 only spread through days 4 and 5 in ensembles,
rendering predictability too low for a specific threat area either
day.
Thereafter, toward the middle-end of next week, shortwave details
crucial for daily convective/severe potential become even more
nebulous. However, large-scale ensemble consensus favors
higher-latitude, amplifying ridging over the central Plains to
Tidewater region. This may shunt severe potential northward, close
to or even north of the international border. Frontal passage(s)
across New England during that time frame, south of a synoptic
cyclone over far northern QC, may be associated with some
convective/severe potential late next week.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will remain in place over the
northwestern CONUS, while a belt of modest midlevel northwesterly
flow overspreads the northern Rockies. This large-scale pattern will
result in elevated fire-weather conditions over parts of southeast
OR, northern NV, and southwest ID -- where breezy northerly surface
winds near 15 mph will overlap 10-15 percent minimum RH.
In addition, isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms
are expected over parts of the northern Rockies, and critically dry
fuels over this area will support isolated lightning-induced
ignitions away from any precipitation cores. An isolated storm or
two will also be possible along the Cascades in northern CA into
southern OR, though confidence in storm development is currently too
low for highlights here.
Farther north along/east of the Cascades in WA, breezy
terrain-enhanced surface winds and 10-15 percent RH could lead to
locally elevated conditions during the afternoon. However, these
conditions should generally be confined to terrain-favored areas and
appear too localized for Elevated highlights.
..Weinman.. 07/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a large-scale ridge will persist over the
northwestern CONUS, where widespread 10-15 percent minimum RH is
expected. Along the northeastern periphery of the ridge, a subtle
midlevel impulse will cross the northern Rockies, which combined
with sufficient midlevel moisture/instability will support isolated
high-based thunderstorms along the higher terrain in southeast ID,
southwest MT, and far western WY. Given highly receptive fuels over
these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible.
Farther west over eastern OR, southwest ID, and northern NV, breezy
northerly surface winds near 15 mph will overlap widespread 10-15
percent RH during the afternoon. These conditions will yield
elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon -- especially
over terrain-favored areas.
..Weinman.. 07/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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