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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.08.22 12:41z 412 Lines 15498 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2612_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220801/1230Z 2612@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 1 09:00:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 1 09:00:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC MD 1623
MD 1623 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Areas affected...a small portion of southeastern Iowa...central
Illinois and west central Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010844Z - 011115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may be
maintained southeastward across the region through daybreak, perhaps
accompanied by occasional surface gusts approaching severe limits.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a
notable short wave trough digging through the Upper Midwest has
contributed to a southeastward propagating area of sustained
vigorous thunderstorm development the past several hours. The
primary cluster has been focused and rooted within an area of
enhanced low-level warm advection now spreading southeast of the
Mississippi River into north central Illinois. More recently,
thunderstorms are initiating near the intersection of trailing
associated outflow, and the leading edge of low-level cooling/drying
associated with the upper impulse. This is also generally near the
exit region of a digging 30-50 kt northwesterly jet streak (within
the 850-500 mb layer).
Various model output, including the latest High Resolution Rapid
Refresh, suggests that this forcing may maintain activity
east-southeastward across at least much of north central Illinois
and west central Indiana by 12-13Z. Storms appear largely rooted
above at least a couple thousand feet deep surface-based stable
layer, with moist elevated inflow characterized by moderately large
CAPE, though cloud-bearing layer shear may only be marginally
sufficient for organized convection.
Despite the strong rear inflow evident in radar data, the weakly
unstable to stable low-level lapse rates may be inhibiting downward
momentum transport to some degree, and there has been little
evidence of strong gusts in surface observations as activity tracks
southeastward around 35 kt. However, it is possible that heavy
precipitation loading could support occasional, localized strong
surface gusts approaching severe limits as long as convection
maintains current strength.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40868943 41108877 39948681 38868717 39818989 41279153
40868943
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SPC Aug 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA...OHIO AND KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly capable of damaging gusts,
are possible today across parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.
Isolated strong to severe storms also are possible across the
broader Midwest vicinity as well as parts of Nebraska.
...OH/IN/KY and Vicinity...
A couple of shortwave impulses embedded in a broader, larger-scale
trough are forecast to pivot across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
vicinity today. Enhanced west/northwest mid/upper flow around 30-40
kt will overspread the region while a surface cold front shifts
east/southeast. The surface front is expected to stall/sag slowly
southward across the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. A very
moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints in
the mid 60s to near 70 F from KY into southern IN and OH, to the
low/mid 60s F as far north as lower MI.
Isolated convection may be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period across western lower MI into parts of IN/IL. The initial
shortwave impulse tracking across the Great Lakes will help sustain
convection across MI, and some threat for isolated damaging gusts
could accompany storms into the afternoon. Further south, convection
across IN/IL should weaken through the morning before another
shortwave impulse shifting east from the mid-MS Valley impinges on
the area. Strong destabilization along the frontal zone and moderate
vertical shear should support organized cells/clusters capable of
damaging gusts and hail. Forecast guidance suggests some organized
line/forward-propagating cluster could develop near the Ohio River
and shift southward across KY during the late afternoon/evening. If
this occurs, damaging wind potential could increase.
...Nebraska...
A series of subtle shortwave impulses are expected to migrate
through northwesterly mid/upper flow over the northern/central
Plains. This will help focus convective potential along a surface
front extending from south-central SD into eastern NE. Strong
heating, steep midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the 60s
will result in moderate instability. Vertically veering wind
profiles, increasing above 4 km, will provide effective shear
magnitudes around 25-30 kt. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat
straight and elongated hodographs as well, and isolated hail near 1
inch in diameter will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates, weak
low-level flow and a deeply-mixed boundary-layer will support strong
outflow winds as well. If confidence increases in storm coverage, an
upgrade to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/01/2022
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SPC Aug 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage will be
possible from Tuesday evening into the early overnight in parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough, and an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet,
will move quickly eastward across southern Canada and the northern
High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move into
the northern Plains. During the day, moisture advection ahead of the
front will result in a corridor of maximized low-level moisture from
eastern Iowa northward into eastern Minnesota. Strong instability is
expected to develop along this corridor by afternoon but a capping
inversion should keep convective coverage isolated through much of
the day. The current thinking is that scattered storms will form
during the evening as the cap weakens and as a 40 to 50 knot
low-level jet strengthens. The storms are forecast to move eastward
across far eastern Minnesota and into northwestern and north-central
Wisconsin during the evening.
NAM forecast soundings near Minneapolis for 03Z/Wednesday have
MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg, 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km,
and 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. This should support supercell
development with large hail and wind damage possible. Although the
environment looks good for a severe threat, the timing of convective
development will likely determine the magnitude of the severe
threat. Convective initiation earlier in the evening would extend
the window for a severe threat, and be more favorable. The severe
threat should continue into the late evening as storms move eastward
into north-central Wisconsin.
..Broyles.. 08/01/2022
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SPC Aug 1, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will
be possible on Wednesday from parts of the lower Missouri valley
northeastward into the Great Lakes region.
...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as an associated cold front
advances southeastward across the upper Midwest. Ahead of the front,
thunderstorm development is expected to take place near a
pre-frontal trough during the day from the lower Missouri Valley
northeastward into lower Michigan. Along the pre-frontal trough,
surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F, should enable
moderate instability to develop by afternoon. In addition to
moderate instability, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be generally
between 25 and 35 knots along much of the front. This combined with
steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal
wind-damage threat. A few of the stronger updrafts could also have
hail.
..Broyles.. 08/01/2022
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SPC Aug 1, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great
Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday. Several pockets
of moderate instability may develop ahead of the trough each
afternoon. Thunderstorms that form within the areas of stronger
surface heating may be associated with an isolated severe threat.
However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak ahead of
the trough suggesting the severe threat will be marginal in most
areas.
Further west into the northern Plains, thunderstorms will also be
possible Friday afternoon and evening. Although some instability is
expected to develop in the northern Plains ahead of a cold front,
forecasts suggest the instability should remain relatively weak.
This suggest that any severe threat would be marginal.
...Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8...
From Saturday to Monday, a large area of high pressure is forecast
across the central U.S. On the northern periphery of this feature,
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, mid-level flow is
forecast to be from the west-southwest. In this regime, some
moisture return would be expected across the north-central states.
However, instability should still be relatively weak across much of
the region due to the modest low-level moisture and warm air aloft.
Although thunderstorm development could occur each afternoon from
parts of the northern Plains eastward to the Great Lakes, the weak
instability should keep any severe threat isolated.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
MONTANA...
...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will remain centered over the western CONUS,
while a belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow extends
from the Pacific Northwest into the northern/central Plains along
the northern periphery of the ridge. Within the west-northwesterly
flow, an embedded shortwave trough and accompanying strong flow
aloft will cross the northern Rockies, while a surface low deepens
over eastern MT.
...Northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains...
As the belt of enhanced west-northwesterly flow overspreads the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains, downslope warming/drying and deep
boundary-layer mixing will result in a broad area of elevated
fire-weather conditions. Along the periphery of the deepening
surface low, a corridor of stronger sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds near 20 mph will overlap 10-15 percent minimum RH
across portions of central into eastern MT -- where critical
fire-weather conditions are forecast.
...Lee of the Cascades in WA and northern OR...
The enhanced west-northwesterly downslope flow will support elevated
to locally critical conditions in the lee of the northern Cascades,
where 15-20 mph westerly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent
RH.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a series of subtle
midlevel impulses coupled with sufficient midlevel
moisture/instability will favor high-based thunderstorms from the
Cascades eastward into the northern Rockies. While many of these
storms will be a hybrid wet/dry mode, any lightning strikes away
from precipitation cores could lead to new fire starts owing to
highly receptive fuels over the area.
..Weinman.. 08/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
MONTANA...
...Synopsis...
A swath of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will extend from the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/adjacent High Plains
along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the western
CONUS. A series of embedded shortwave troughs and accompanying
strong flow aloft will track eastward through the westerly midlevel
flow during peak heating.
...Northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains...
Downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow
aloft will result in a broad corridor of elevated fire-weather
conditions during the afternoon. Within this corridor, a swath of
20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap
10-15 percent RH from central into eastern MT -- resulting in
critical fire-weather conditions.
...Lee of the Cascades in WA into northern OR...
Similar to Day 1/Monday, enhanced westerly midlevel flow will favor
warming/drying in the lee of the Cascades -- where 15-20 mph
westerly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given
receptive fuels over this area, elevated to locally critical
conditions are expected.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
As the midlevel shortwave troughs move from the Cascades into the
northern Rockies, isolated to widely scattered high-based
thunderstorms will be possible. While many of these storms will be
associated with accumulating rainfall, even isolated strikes on the
periphery of precipitation cores could result in lightning-induced
ignitions owing to very dry fuels.
..Weinman.. 08/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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