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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.08.22 15:00z 379 Lines 13832 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2827_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 220804/1230Z 2827@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 4 08:08:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 4 08:08:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC MD 1647
MD 1647 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND
PARTS OF ADJACENT SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022
Areas affected...much of south central and southeastern Missouri
into northeastern Arkansas...and parts of adjacent southern Illinois
and western Kentucky/Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 040745Z - 041015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for strong to occasionally severe wind gusts may
increase during the next few hours, as a cluster of vigorous
thunderstorms continues to organize and maintain strength while
propagating southward across the region through daybreak. It is not
yet clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are
being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Perhaps aided by strengthening large-scale ascent,
convection has been intensifying within a corridor of strengthening
low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing. Recently, cloud
tops have been cooling along with increasing peak lightning flash
rates, north of Cape Girardeau into the Fort Leonard Wood vicinity.
There have been several notable and persistent lower/mid-level
mesoscale cyclonic circulations evident within this activity, which
might strengthen further during the next few hours as vigorous
convection is likely maintained by inflow of seasonably moist air
characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 1500-3000 J/kg.
Although northwesterly to northerly deep-layer mean flow and shear
are generally weak to modest respectively, strengthening rear inflow
associated with the developing mesoscale circulations may contribute
to increasing potential for strong surface gusts, aided by heavy
precipitation loading and downward momentum transfer. The
organizing convective system may persist into at least the 12-13Z
time frame, southward through much of northeastern Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel vicinity, before beginning to weaken.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 37259181 37199094 37328947 36108961 35859233 37139306
37259181
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SPC Aug 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds are possible across much of the Northeast,
Ohio Valley, the southern Plains, and parts of Montana.
...Discussion...
While much of the CONUS will experience neutral to weak height rises
tomorrow, strong surface heating will once again result in scattered
thunderstorm development for many regions. In the more favorable
areas the most robust storms may produce locally gusty winds. Much
of this activity will focus during the mid-late afternoon and
evening hours.
...Ohio Valley to New England...
Southern influence of a weak short-wave trough will eject northeast
across the OH Valley toward northern New England later Today. Early
this morning, a fairly significant amount of convection has
developed ahead of this feature from central MO across IL into
western IN. By the start of the period a weak MCV may evolve from
this activity then drift east across southern IN. The primary
concern for strong surface heating will be immediately downstream of
this feature, across the OH Valley into portions of northern New
England. While large-scale forcing for ascent will not be
appreciable, strong heating will prove instrumental in
destabilization and steep low-level lapse rates will prove favorable
for locally gusty winds with the most robust thunderstorm activity.
...Southern Plains...
Upper anticyclone is expected to remain anchored over the southern
High Plains in the vicinity of northeast NM/TX Panhandle. Mid-level
flow is forecast to become more northeasterly across OK later today
and this should allow an early-day convective complex over eastern
KS/MO to sag south which should encourage a weak surface boundary to
advance into the southern Plains. By 20z convective temperatures
should be breached as readings rise above 100F across central OK.
Latest model guidance suggests PW values will approach 2 inches, and
with 40F surface temp/dew point spreads thermodynamic profiles favor
gusty downdrafts. If thunderstorms initiate along the aforementioned
boundary gusty downdrafts seem plausible as convection propagates
slowly west.
...MT...
The only substantial short-wave trough expected across the CONUS
today will eject across the Pacific Northwest and flatten the upper
ridge over MT late in the period. This feature will force a notable
surface front across ID into western MT by 18z and this boundary
will surge into eastern MT by 05/00z. While the air mass is not
particularly moist across this region at this time, scattered
high-based convection is expected to develop ahead of the front.
Very steep lapse rates and strengthening flow aloft suggest locally
strong winds may accompany this scattered weak convection as it
spreads east during and shortly after peak heating.
..Darrow/Jirak.. 08/04/2022
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SPC Aug 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF
MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail will be possible Friday
afternoon across parts of the northern Plains, and over parts of
Virginia and Maryland.
...Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough will move from SK into MB during the day, with an
80+ kt midlevel speed max grazing northern portions of ND and MN.
Speeds up to 40 kt may occur as far south as SD. At the surface, a
cold front will move southeastward across the Dakotas, likely
extending from the Red River into central SD by 21Z, and pushing
into northern NE during the evening. A narrow plume of mid 50s to
perhaps 60s F dewpoints will interact with this front, over eastern
ND into SD, as heating contributes to 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE.
Hot temperatures as well as convergence along the front should lead
to diurnally driven storms after about 21Z, from southeast ND into
eastern and central SD. A substantial low-level jet will aid warm
advection and boundary-layer mixing, and should allow for
east/southeastward moving storms. Longer hodographs farther north
into MN may lead to a few left-moving cells with hail. At least
isolated severe gusts appear likely into SD within the heating
plume, along with marginal hail. Model spreads remain high regarding
low-level moisture and total CAPE.
...Much of northern VA into MD...
Models have been consistent showing a concentrated area of
thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain and expanding east
across northern VA and MD, as strong heating leads to moderate
instability by afternoon. Forecast soundings reveal a favorable
pulse wind/hail scenario with weak shear and good lapse rates aloft
for vigorous diurnal convection. Marginal hail is most likely with
the initial storms, with gusty winds occurring as outflows become
more numerous. The threat is expected to end around 01-02Z as the
boundary layer cools.
..Jewell.. 08/04/2022
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SPC Aug 4, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may affects parts of the northern
Plains to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
A band of moderate midlevel southwesterlies will stretch from the
northern Rockies across the Dakotas and MN as a shortwave trough
moves east across MT late in the period. At the surface, high
pressure will be centered over southern MB into western ON, with a
front extending from a weak low in southern NE northeastward into IA
and southern MN by late afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s will be
common near this front, resulting in moderate instability. This
boundary will push north as a warm front over parts of MN and WI
Saturday night, as 850 mb winds increase to 30 kt. Wind profiles
will favor clusters of storms with locally strong winds or
short-lived hail cores as deep-shear will be largely parallel to the
front. Convection may be ongoing relatively early north of the
boundary, becoming stronger into the diurnal heating maximum and
persisting during the evening as the low-level jet increases.
..Jewell.. 08/04/2022
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SPC Aug 4, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Sunday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move east from the
northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, providing at least
35-40 kt midlevel winds. A weak low is forecast to pivot from WI
into MI, with a cold front trailing southwest across IA and into KS
by late afternoon. Uppers 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints may exist
ahead of the low, with southwesterly 850 mb winds. Models differ
substantially with the strength of this wave and associated wind
fields, and as such predictability is low. However, at least a
low-end severe threat may develop on Sunday, centered over WI.
This cold front will move progressively south and east across the
CONUS through about Wednesday/D7, and as it does, available shear
will decrease with only meager southwest flow across parts of the
Northeast. As such, no organized/significant areas of severe weather
are currently forecast during this period.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...
...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the
northern Rockies today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft
associated with this feature will overspread the Pacific Northwest
and northern Idaho/Montana. In response at the surface, low
pressure will deepen over Alberta and Saskatchewan.
...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains...
Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a swath of 20-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected across parts of
north-central MT. These strong winds, coupled with a
hot/deeply-mixed boundary layer (10-15 percent minimum RH) will lead
to critical fire-weather conditions. In addition, mixed wet-dry
thunderstorms should spread eastward across the northern Rockies,
accompanied by locally strong outflow winds. Given the expected high
cloud bases and relatively fast storm motions (over 30 mph), limited
rainfall accumulation is expected, supporting isolated dry
thunderstorm potential.
...Pacific Northwest...
Deep boundary-layer mixing in the presence of strong westerly flow
aloft combined with downslope warming/drying in the lee of the
Cascades will result in 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds
and 15-20 percent RH. Given receptive fuels from WA into OR,
elevated to locally critical conditions can be expected.
..Jirak.. 08/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward along
the northern international border on Friday. An associated surface
low over the Canadian Prairies will continue to deepen with a
trailing surface trough/cold front draped southward into the Plains.
While a combination of diurnal mixing and strengthening low-level
flow in response to the wave will support hot and breezy conditions
across portions of Nebraska, South Dakota, and southwestern
Minnesota, there is too much uncertainty with regard to RH values
falling to near-critical thresholds to add fire weather highlights
at this time.
..Jirak.. 08/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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